Break Even Player, what to do?

N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
Hello guys,

I've been playing poker non stop for 5 months (822 hours) and now I'm break even.

I lost most of all in pots in the last week. Most all in pots are minimum 60%/40% favorite when the money goes in. I was never behind when I was all in.

I know 60-40 is only 3 out of 2 (win 3 out of 2), but I'm experiencing more like 1 out of 3 (win 1 out of 3)

I believe I have the edge in the players pool, but the variance is too much lately.

I need some advise on what to do when I'm just a break-even player. Should I just play recreationally and see what happens in the next run?

Thanks

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭✭
    Could you give a couple of examples of times when you got it all in as a 60/40 favorite? Doesn't need to be the full hand history.

    I'm asking because it's not just about WHEN you got it in as a 60/40 favorite but rather HOW you got it in and against whom.

    I think that many players use "variance" to explain away leaks -- I was a favorite three times in a row and lost. Damn variance... -- when they often created that position unnecessarily in the first place.

    I'm not suggesting [yet!] that you're in that boat. That's why I asked for some examples.
  • PBF_ProdigyPBF_Prodigy Red Chipper Posts: 554 ✭✭✭
    It sounds like--as it did months ago--that you expect simply playing volume will somehow get you better results, rather than creating a serious and dedicated study plan to reinforce your current strengths and then expand your skill-set with uncomfortable new ideas and concepts. At some point, you just have to admit that your own study habits and not variance have led you to being breakeven, and the faster you discover humility in your own game, the faster you'll find the road to truth grow. As I recommend to everyone, start with GTO and go from there. Best of luck!!!
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I lost most of all in pots in the last week. Most all in pots are minimum 60%/40% favorite when the money goes in. I was never behind when I was all in.

    Sounds like your waiting for made hands and not betting thin or pushing your draws. If your always favorite that is one of the problems.

    I also 2nd @moishetreats to see how you play the hand, post more HH.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited July 13
    Could you give a couple of examples of times when you got it all in as a 60/40 favorite? Doesn't need to be the full hand history.

    I'm asking because it's not just about WHEN you got it in as a 60/40 favorite but rather HOW you got it in and against whom.

    I think that many players use "variance" to explain away leaks -- I was a favorite three times in a row and lost. Damn variance... -- when they often created that position unnecessarily in the first place.

    I'm not suggesting [yet!] that you're in that boat. That's why I asked for some examples.

    Thanks for the question. It started about a week ago. I had several hands that I wrote down:

    All game was 1/3 NL

    Please note --- Even before this session, I wrote down "KK lost to AK, KK, lost to 77s, and AA lost to 65o --- but I was still up at the end of that session.

    Until this session about a week ago:

    Hand 1: So I had KcKs from MP, and I raised $20.
    One V called from late position. Everyone folds. Heads up to the flop.
    V's stack about $250 ish
    I covered.

    Flop: KQTss. I bet $35. He raised all in for $230. I called with top set and 1 spade.
    Turn 6s
    River Jh

    V had AQo

    Hand 2: Same Villain. He has about $500. I covered again

    I raised $15 from MP with A4hh. He called again. Heads up to the flop

    A47ss. I bet $25. He called.
    Turn 10s. I bet $50.
    He jammed all in for $437

    I called with 2 pair.
    River 2s.
    He had Ah Js for one card flush

    I know big bets usually fold. But I was right about my read. I was ahead.

    Different session:

    Hand 3: EP with QQ raised $15
    V from MP raised to $45 (V's stack $200)

    fold to me. I covered his stack. I reraised all in. He called with TT
    T on the river

    Hand 4, different table. Same session
    Drunk lady straddle UTG to $25. She covered my stack

    I was EP, looked down KcQh. Raised all in for $175
    All folded to drunk lady. She showed everyone her card 89cc and call.

    Flop: J77c
    Turn 6c
    River Jc
    She scooped for a flush

    Hand 5: last night. V was a maniac
    I had $180. V covered

    3 Limped to V on the button. V raised to $15.
    I was SB called with AsTc. All limpers called.

    5 ways to the flop:
    T95ss.

    I checked. All checked to V who bet $35.

    I jammed all in for $160. All fold. V called.
    Turn: Qs
    River: Jh

    V showed Q9o for 2 pair.

    I thought all my plays were ok (I was ahead on all of these pots when the money went in).

    Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    Thanks again
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    HAND#5 is just a fold preflop. If you don't want to fold then it's a 3bet if you think he is isolating light.

    Hand #4 $25 straddle is very uncommon, But I would pass on this marginal spot with so many players behind you. It may be profitable seeing how its like 7bb effective, but would you call or 3bet this hand if someone opened $25? From later position I could see making a play like this. Taking too thin of a spot for my taste.

    Hand #3 is ok. I usually flat and play post flop there as most 3bettors have a pretty tight range.

    Hand #2 just feels like your clicking buttons. If you want lower variance style just fold A4s from MP or open smaller say $10, so you have more room for post flop play. You also left out stack sizes, so mentioned his stack, but did you call all in for $437? You said he covers you, but effective stack is still unclear. I'm not a fan of big bet sizes in general, maybe a leak of mine, but results say other wise. 5bb pre, nearly full pot cbet, and then 2\3 turn bet. It's hard for villain to have a worse hand than yours when he check raises all in. If you look at his range in general. Very lucky to be ahead in this spot. Im fine with bet folding or checking back as standard here.

    Hand #1 you have a common bet sizing tell, which I see a TON of players doing. Open for $20 with their big pairs and open $10-$15 or limp everything else. Very easy to set mine or play SCs against this bet size. You also leave yourself open to being 3bet more often when you open $15. Positions also seem unclear... You raised mP + LP called, but LP check raised flop? V was in the blinds then? Looks like a very profitable table.

    Hard to imagine losing to these players over 800 hours. I would say 200 hours max! I've had swings playing an aggro style where I lost 3k over about 100 hours, then next 100-150hrs had 5k upswing choosing lower variance lines.

    Long losing stretches are common, but usually higher stakes. @Wiki_Leaks said he was break even for 7 months. This is $5\$10 though. Shouldn't have many losing weeks against these types of players, let a lone months!

    Seems to me you have some other leaks in your game as well. I suspect your opening Axs from all positions? Opening KTo and QJo from MP?
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    edited July 13
    Austin wrote: »
    iand #2 just feels like your clicking buttons. If you want lower variance style just fold A4s from MP or open smaller say $10, so you have more room for post flop play. You also left out stack sizes, so mentioned his stack, but did you call all in for $437? You said he covers you, but effective stack is still unclear. I'm not a fan of big bet sizes in general, maybe a leak of mine, but results say other wise. 5bb pre, nearly full pot cbet, and then 2\3 turn bet. It's hard for villain to have a worse hand than yours when he check raises all in. If you look at his range in general. Very lucky to be ahead in this spot. Im fine with bet folding or checking back as standard here.

    Hand 2, his stack was about $500. I covered. I had about $750. He had position on my. He raised all in on the turn.
    Austin wrote: »
    HAND#5 is just a fold preflop. If you don't want to fold then it's a 3bet if you think he is isolating light.

    He wasn't even trying to isolate. He raised super small $15 to 3 limpers + blinds to act.
    I played $1/3

    About opening smaller, I tried to open mininum $15 (5bbs) because I tried to make more money. These players fold too much on the flop, so if I opened larger, I made more money because they fold too much.

    Unless the game is juicy then I opened $20. Again, to make more money.

    I read somewhere, there are only 2 reasons to open raise preflop: to isolate, or to take down the pots right away.

    I think bigger open fits both, especially when I isolate and they fold too much on the flop or turn.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭✭✭
    N A wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    iand #2 just feels like your clicking buttons. If you want lower variance style just fold A4s from MP or open smaller say $10, so you have more room for post flop play. You also left out stack sizes, so mentioned his stack, but did you call all in for $437? You said he covers you, but effective stack is still unclear. I'm not a fan of big bet sizes in general, maybe a leak of mine, but results say other wise. 5bb pre, nearly full pot cbet, and then 2\3 turn bet. It's hard for villain to have a worse hand than yours when he check raises all in. If you look at his range in general. Very lucky to be ahead in this spot. Im fine with bet folding or checking back as standard here.

    Hand 2, his stack was about $500. I covered. I had about $750. He had position on my. He raised all in on the turn.
    Austin wrote: »
    HAND#5 is just a fold preflop. If you don't want to fold then it's a 3bet if you think he is isolating light.

    He wasn't even trying to isolate. He raised super small $15 to 3 limpers + blinds to act.
    I played $1/3

    About opening smaller, I tried to open mininum $15 (5bbs) because I tried to make more money. These players fold too much on the flop, so if I opened larger, I made more money because they fold too much.

    Unless the game is juicy then I opened $20. Again, to make more money.

    I read somewhere, there are only 2 reasons to open raise preflop: to isolate, or to take down the pots right away.

    I think bigger open fits both, especially when I isolate and they fold too much on the flop or turn.

    You say they fold too much, so you open larger, but all your hands they appear super sticky and to be making moves.

    You also might be too sticky.

    :AD: :4S: :7S: :TS:
    Pot ($80)
    Hero barrels $50
    Villain shoves $437

    Do you think your ahead of his range? You might be getting married to your hand and not playing range.
  • N AN A Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    N A wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    iand #2 just feels like your clicking buttons. If you want lower variance style just fold A4s from MP or open smaller say $10, so you have more room for post flop play. You also left out stack sizes, so mentioned his stack, but did you call all in for $437? You said he covers you, but effective stack is still unclear. I'm not a fan of big bet sizes in general, maybe a leak of mine, but results say other wise. 5bb pre, nearly full pot cbet, and then 2\3 turn bet. It's hard for villain to have a worse hand than yours when he check raises all in. If you look at his range in general. Very lucky to be ahead in this spot. Im fine with bet folding or checking back as standard here.

    Hand 2, his stack was about $500. I covered. I had about $750. He had position on my. He raised all in on the turn.
    Austin wrote: »
    HAND#5 is just a fold preflop. If you don't want to fold then it's a 3bet if you think he is isolating light.

    He wasn't even trying to isolate. He raised super small $15 to 3 limpers + blinds to act.
    I played $1/3

    About opening smaller, I tried to open mininum $15 (5bbs) because I tried to make more money. These players fold too much on the flop, so if I opened larger, I made more money because they fold too much.

    Unless the game is juicy then I opened $20. Again, to make more money.

    I read somewhere, there are only 2 reasons to open raise preflop: to isolate, or to take down the pots right away.

    I think bigger open fits both, especially when I isolate and they fold too much on the flop or turn.

    You say they fold too much, so you open larger, but all your hands they appear super sticky and to be making moves.

    You also might be too sticky.

    :AD: :4S: :7S: :TS:
    Pot ($80)
    Hero barrels $50
    Villain shoves $437

    Do you think your ahead of his range? You might be getting married to your hand and not playing range.

    This was the same V that raised me all in when I flop top set of Ks on KQT board and he had AQ. This guy couldn't wait to give me all of his money. My read was my 2 pair was good and it was.

    Yes, I might be sticky as well. I might pay people off on other hands but the hands that I mentioned above were really soul crushing because I was ahead and my read was spot on.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for posting all the hands.

    Let's make a couple of assumptions:

    1) You're read was correct every time; and
    2) You got sucked out on.

    There is the possibility that the second is true but that the first is not. In other words, while you were actually ahead of V's hand each time, you might not have been ahead of V's range every time. So, you might be looking at variance through the lens of individual hands, but the reality might be that you should be down more than up given ranges.

    Honestly, I didn't look tooooo in depth there for the reason that I'll share below. At this point, it's a food-for-thought comment.


    So, let's assume that both the above are true. Even if you were a favorite in each hand and got sucked out on, that doesn't mean that your play is optimal.

    I'd make a stroooooong suggestion that you consider how to play against a maniac / overly aggressive player. You might find something there.
  • Ruxton_AtheistRuxton_Atheist Red Chipper Posts: 147 ✭✭✭
    Good news! Assuming you are paying rake and tipping, you are actually a winner over the last 5 months. Winning only 1 pot/hour (822) x ~$5 rake + $1 tip = $4,932. Go you!

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