To gutshot or not?

DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
edited July 2018 in Online Poker Hands
Hi All,

I was faced with a call that I was conflicted by since from my mathematics, the card odds didn't line up with the pot odds, but the equity needed was apparently there to make the call which is why I was conflicted. Example below given after all PFRs (during onine microstakes MTT):

Hero: :Qh:Kh (CO)
Villain: SB

Flop: :Ad:7s:Jc
Pot: 4,830

Villain leads with bet of 1,430

Now here is where my math might be wrong, but I calculated my card odds being around 10:1, while also calculating the pot odds at roughly 6:1. Using the rule of 4-2, I gave myself around 16% equity to make a call. Finally, given the pot odds of 6:1 I gave only 14% needed equity to make the call here. So where I was conflicted was, by pot/card odds I should not make the call here; however, by equity measurements I should. What are your thoughts? (I ultimately folded)

Answers

  • keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    edited July 2018
    who opened? what kind of player is V, and what does his preflop range look like?

    10:1 card odds with 1 card to come but you actually have 2 shots to hiy your card so its more like 5 to 1. personally i hate odds and convert everything to % form to avoid confusion.

    1:1 is 50%
    2:1 is 33%
    3:1 is 25%
    4:1 is 20%
    5:1 is 17%

    with 4 outs on the flop, your equity is around 16%. you have to call 1400 to win 6200 so your pot odds are between 4-5 to 1 which means you need about 18% to call profitably not including any implied odds.

    really need more situational info as i might even consider a bluff raise in this spot.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    keasbey wrote: »
    who opened? what kind of player is V, and what does his preflop range look like?

    10:1 card odds with 1 card to come but you actually have 2 shots to hiy your card so its more like 5 to 1. personally i hate odds and convert everything to % form to avoid confusion.

    1:1 is 50%
    2:1 is 33%
    3:1 is 25%
    4:1 is 20%
    5:1 is 17%

    with 4 outs on the flop, your equity is around 16%. you have to call 1400 to win 6200 so your pot odds are between 4-5 to 1 which means you need about 18% to call profitably not including any implied odds.

    really need more situational info as i might even consider a bluff raise in this spot.

    Thanks for the advice. I agree, I wish I had more situational info regarding pre-flop etc. From what you said though, I gathered that let's say on a 5:1 bet, I would need at least 4 outs for it to break even from a pot/card odd comparison (before the turn, with 2 cards to go); but from an equity standpoint, I'm slightly behind. I'm interested at the bluff-raise option as well, something I'll have to consider next time around.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Im guessing you opened CO
    Sb 3bet
    You called

    Sb cbet 1\3

    Now your at a decision point to call, fold, or raise?

    What are the effective stacks? You block some AK and AQ hands, but don't block JJ or AA. Idk how wide SB is 3betting here pre, but if he has some TT, 99, and QTs hands in his range, you might be able to peel one and take it away.

    Don't really like calling here to make a hand. I would use the other 2 combos, not of hearts, to peel where you can pick up a bdfd. Give yourself a chance to win with playability and not just making a hand. Your likely bottom of your range here with KhQh, so no need to defend 100% of your range.

    You left off a lot of key info to get good feed back, leading reads to make a lot of assumptions as to what is the correct play.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Im guessing you opened CO
    Sb 3bet
    You called

    Sb cbet 1\3

    Now your at a decision point to call, fold, or raise?

    What are the effective stacks? You block some AK and AQ hands, but don't block JJ or AA. Idk how wide SB is 3betting here pre, but if he has some TT, 99, and QTs hands in his range, you might be able to peel one and take it away.

    Don't really like calling here to make a hand. I would use the other 2 combos, not of hearts, to peel where you can pick up a bdfd. Give yourself a chance to win with playability and not just making a hand. Your likely bottom of your range here with KhQh, so no need to defend 100% of your range.

    You left off a lot of key info to get good feed back, leading reads to make a lot of assumptions as to what is the correct play.

    Thank you for the advice for my future posts. I started playing seriously roughly about 2 months ago; so I am fully aware that I will either be asking simplistic questions, or in this case making errors like leaving out pertinent info.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    "I would use the other 2 combos, not of hearts, to peel where you can pick up a bdfd. Give yourself a chance to win with playability and not just making a hand. Your likely bottom of your range here with KhQh, so no need to defend 100% of your range."

    Can you explain further? I am confused with bdfd, and also what you mean by defending 100% of my range (I assume you mean by raising to represent a stronger range etc.).
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    It's really important to take the time to give us the hand history from the beginning. I assume you believe your opponent is ahead?

    If you are strictly talking math, you are actually getting 4.3-1 pot odds, which require 19% equity. I assume you believe you need to spike a T to win this hand? So your equity is 16% (4 outs)... but remember, this 16% is only if you are seeing both the turn and river.

    Take into account that you will possibly be facing another bet on the turn when you miss. Now you will need to recalculate your pot odds based on the sizing of that turn bet. It most likely will not be in your favor.
  • DeucesWildDeucesWild Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Paul_K wrote: »
    It's really important to take the time to give us the hand history from the beginning. I assume you believe your opponent is ahead?

    If you are strictly talking math, you are actually getting 4.3-1 pot odds, which require 19% equity. I assume you believe you need to spike a T to win this hand? So your equity is 16% (4 outs)... but remember, this 16% is only if you are seeing both the turn and river.

    Take into account that you will possibly be facing another bet on the turn when you miss. Now you will need to recalculate your pot odds based on the sizing of that turn bet. It most likely will not be in your favor.

    Absolutely agreed, admittedly I was unfortunately caught between handling the door while this hand was beginning; so what I did was call the first few pre-flop bets after seeing Q K suited (I was in a position where I needed to make something happen, so I blindly called while distracted--first mistake). Once the flop hit, I was able to sit down and pay attention, thus the result of my post, that is indeed missing a ton of info. That said, your comment and the ones above gave me a small "a-ha" moment.

    Having started researching and becoming more serious about a month and a half ago...I have been trying to implement everything I've learned (pot/card/implied odds, equity etc.). What I was originally doing was looking at a flush draw, telling myself I had 9 outs. However, I would always multiply my outs by 4 as if every hand was going to the river.

    This thread opened me to my first rookie mistake, which was not multiplying by 2 for the turn first. Currently my strategy is to first calculate my equity on the flop, compare that with the pot equity, and then compare my card/pot odds. What I need to strengthen my understanding in is, how to calculate implied odds, and card combos/blockers. Either way, thanks for the help!

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