AJ facing oop raise

Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
Live 1-2, empire casino london, afternoon session
Villain utg seat 4 lag es £450 (earlier hand inc calling oop straddle raise 4 ways with 10 6 and hitting quads)
Hero cut off tag Seat 9 es £520 (up£320 in just over an hour)

Preflop
Villain straddles 5
1 caller
Hero raise to 17 :Ah :Jh
Blinds fold, villain calls, 2nd caller folds

Pot 42

Flop
:Kh :9h :Qd
Villain checks.
Hero bets 17
Villain raises to 45
Hero calls
Pot 132

Thinking - loose player check raising trying to steal. Maybe my bet was too weak but calling 28 is great odds. Call and see the turn

Turn :2s
Board :Kh :9h :Qd :2s

Villain bets 100
Pot 232
Hero tanks and folds

He could have 2 pair or set so main thing is how can he block flush and straight outs and realistically all he could have is Jx10hearts. So if he does have the straight that at worst gives me 8 hearts & 3x10s. 11outs.

Roughly Equity is 22% vs Pot odds 3-1

1.are these calculations right?
2. where do I go from here. Do I need to look at implied odds? In which case am I considering whole stacks?

Felt like a fold was the right play but I'm working hard with my core videos but there's so much to consider. Some help would be great

Finished this session £350 up and since using core I'm on average finishing a buy in up at each live session, whereas before i was kidding myself I was break even. Thanks to the RC team.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,681 ✭✭✭✭
    Flop
    :Kh :9h :Qd
    Villain checks.
    Hero bets 17
    Villain raises to 45
    Hero calls
    Pot 132

    Thinking - loose player check raising trying to steal. Maybe my bet was too weak but calling 28 is great odds. Call and see the turn

    Then why not re-raise?? If V is just trying to steal, then V will fold. Even, worst case, if V has a straight, you have real equity against it. If V has, say, KJ or something else, then you're a favorite.

    I think that you're undervaluing the equity that you have here and undervaluing the fold equity if you think that V is trying to steal.


    As played, it's a must-call. You're almost assuredly good if a heart or a ten comes, and that's more than enough equity with implied odds to call: V is likely to bet, shove, or stack off given the profile that you assigned him. Heck, even an ace might be good enough...

    You could even consider a shove here.


    A general thought: If you're going to call the flop raise (again, raising is better), then you have to continue on the turn. Your hand is one that is powerful because you have TWO streets to see cards to realize your equity. By calling and then folding to a less-than-half-pot-sized turn bet, you're only giving yourself ONE street to hit your hand.

    Another thought: If you are going to call the flop and then the turn (as played, again, you should call the turn), isn't it better to take that turn call money and make it a flop raise?? That's how you get fold equity!!

    I know, I know... What if you re-raise the flop and then V shoves? Easy call given the massive equity.


    If you're not comfortable with any/all of that, then you shouldn't be raising (or playing) this hand pre-flop.

    Even more than that, if you're not comfortable with any/all of that, then it seems like you might be driven more by fear of losing your stack than by seeking out opportunities to push an edge. THAT, IMO, would be the absolute biggest issue here.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Preflop
    1-2-5 game
    Typical open here maybe $15-$25
    1 person limps
    Here I would raise a little larger than $17 to make it $20-$25 some may even go larger than $25 here.

    Flop ($42) :KH: :9H: :QD:
    Check
    Hero bets $17

    Again sizing is pretty small. If he has a hand like 9d8d you benefit from him folding. The board heavily favors your range more than Villain. Besides KQ, Q9s, and 99 villain is mostly capped. I would like to see a cbet of 25-35 and deny some of villains equity.

    Now villain raises to $45 What is he repping? It's actually a pretty small raise, less than 3x. Now there is $104 in the pot ($42+$17+$45) with effective stacks of about $390 or so behind. No small pot being 52bb for a $1\$2 game in the middle to fight for.

    Given your equity even vs a set you should be going to war here. If the board was say 9h8h6d I am more likely to call the raise because villain has range advantage. But on Kh9hQd board, I am going to war! Also note you block the nuts J10. Would like to see a 3bet on the flop to about $125. Notice your risking $80 more here instead of facing a $100 bet on the turn. You can easily rep KK, QQ, 99, KQ, J10s, 22 value combos here. You can't really fold in this spot because then what bluffs do you have? You have one of your best bluffing canidates.

    As @moishetreats said, FEAR is holding you back.
  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    Thanks guys. I read @moishetreats feedback last night and would never have considered raising him but actually i really like the idea of stepping up the aggression another notch.

    Ihave thought it though in the context of the session and fear was the key factor.

    I had chipped up by making 2 good plays, trapping an aggro with my set and then making a v good call against a regs shove where ive worked through the combos and made the correct call. Hence more than doubling stack in a little over 45 mins so fear of not being right 3 times in a row definitely got in the way.

    My game is progressing at an unbelievable rate thanks to the vids and this forum so I'll learn and keep going.

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