NL5 SH - JTs OOP MWP Turn decision

Muel294Muel294 Liverpool, EnglandRed Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
Villain appears to be Loose and passive based on the few hands that I have (VPIP:91/PFR:9 over 34 hands)

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $8.80 (VPIP: 90.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
CO: $5.68 (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
BTN: $4.07 (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 16.42, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 68)
Hero (SB): $2.02

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has :TS::JS:

fold, BTN raises to $0.04, Hero calls $0.03, BB raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.08, Hero calls $0.08

Preflop: In this spot I can play my hand as a preflop semibluff by 3-betting or just call and play postflop since this hand will play well in multi-way pots, even postflop and OOP. If BB were more aggro I would be more inclined to 3b vs button so that I am not routinely squeezed off my hand by the BB, however based on the fact that I believed BB to be LP I decided to flat and go multi way in n effort to involved a recreational player.

When villain raises from the BB I believe he would do so with quite a strong range. I would expect to see something like TT+, AJs+ and AQo+. Maybe this is too tight a range? I would expect villain to just check and see a flop with more speculative hands such as 22-99, SC'sand other weaker broadways. This is based on the few stats that I have which indicate that villain maybe on the more passive side.

Flop: ($0.36, 3 players) :JC::9S::KH:
Hero checks, BB bets $0.18, fold, Hero calls $0.18

Flop: x/c is the only line that really makes sense to me here, donking won't get any better hands to fold and I have a pr+gutshot with some backdoors, which can develop on later streets. I imagine villain to bet here with made hands TP+ along with some second pair hands such as TT/QQ and AJs. Despite being more passive I imagine that villain will still c-bet bluff some proportion of the time, with hands like AQ that have a gutshot.

I imagine villain's c-betting range to be something like the following: AA-KK,JJ,AKo,AKs,[25]QQ,TT[/25],[75]AQo,AQs[/75],[50]AJs[/50]. This includes some weighting of hands from Flopzilla as I am trying to get more familair with this tool and concept.

According to Flopzilla. Against this range my hand has approx 48% Equity. Since I am getting 3:1 on call I believe I have more than enough equity vs this range to make x/c'ing here profitable.

Turn: ($0.72, 2 players) :8S:
Hero checks, BB bets $0.34, Hero raises to $1.37, BB raises to $8.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.35 and is all-in

Turn: Good turn card for me now giving me and OESD and FD and it doesn't improve villains range (based on what I have assumed pre and postflop). Again villain bets 1/2 pot. This means I need around 24% equity or better to make calling here profitable, right?

Risk = .34
Reward = .34+.72+.34 = 1.40
Equity required to call = Risk / (Risk+ Reward)
= 0.34 / 1.40
= 0.24 * 100 = 24%

So now I have the choice between x/c'ing and x/raising IMO. Donking and folding make no sense IMO. I think x/c'in is the standard line, but at the time I was trying to think outside the box and thought that I may be able to get some hands to fold such as 2nd pair type such as AJ/TT/QQ/AQo/AQs(dd/ss/cc).

But according to the ranges that I have input into Flopzilla, this only accounts for 5 combos of a total of 26 that he would bet the turn with. In percentage terms this equates to 18%. So, assuming he bet/folds 18% of the time he will be continuing with the other 82% of his range. So a CRAI will only be successful 18% of the time and it will need to work 61% of the time:

( risking 1.72 to win 2.78. 1.72 / 2.78 = .61).

Hopefully this is right and someone can check my Maths on this. Against what villain shows up with I'm actually in decent shape, but in hindsight vs his range I think that this is burning money and check/call with a plan of donking the river is best. I think I would prefer to donk the river for value upon hitting as I think that most good rivers for me are going to be pretty scary for villain. I think I would be able to secure at least a 1/2 pot bet and if villain shoves then I will probably have to call it off due to efective stacks sizes and pot odds by the river. If villain were to show up with the nut flush on a spade river, for example. I think the times I donk the river for value vs worse hands would outweigh the times villain shows up with the nuts and stacks me. Is that the right thinking?

River: ($4.16, 2 players) :9C:

Hero shows :TS::JS: (Two Pair, Jacks and Nines)
(Pre 22%, Flop 37%, Turn 45%)
BB shows :AD::AC: (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 78%, Flop 63%, Turn 55%)
BB wins $4.01



Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    It seems to me like you're creating the range needed to justify your actions.

    Pre-flop: I don't see why you're calling BB's 3bet. JTs works well as a semi-bluff, but you're not really deep enough to get multiple big bets in and generate true fold equity against BB's tight 3bet range. That being said, I could justify a call given pot odds, but you're really setting yourself up here to have to get your money in with marginal odds at best. I don't think that's a good standard practice.

    I think that the range that you assigned V post-flop on his cbet is way off if he's really passive. You're giving him far too many hands that he'd be cbetting with. This is what seems to me to be a range that you're assigning in order to justify your play.

    I also note that, throughout your hand history, you repeatedly dismiss options: "Flop: x/c is the only line that really makes sense to me here"; "Donking and folding make no sense IMO." Why? Open yourself to other options.


    Above, I presumed that your read on V as passive was correct and, as a result, the line that you took was incorrect: You don't have the odds that you think that you do.

    Let's now presume that your read on V's range was correct but that your description of V was incorrect. In other words, presume that V's cbet range was as wide as you suggested. If you really have 48%, then check-raising the flop is the preferred choice. You'll have fold equity against the low-end of V's cbetting range and far more than enough equity-when-called to make back your bet and more.


    Ultimately, I think that you're post looks to retroactively justify your choices. If you go back to examine your image of V and/or the range that you assigned him, I think that you'll see that there is an inconsistency there. At that point, you would need to open yourself up to many possibilities that you dismissed throughout the hand.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 297 ✭✭✭
    I would prefer a 3bet against a BTN open. SB calling ranges are easier to read than SB 3bet ranges.

    As played I don't mind the flop call but I don't understand why you gave V a range on the turn including TT, AJ, QQ, AQ and then went for a c/r. From my experience he is playing those hands completely different (if they are even in his range preflop).

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