Hand #6

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Hand 6
Preflop: My fold equity against a Weak TAg and a Nit is good, 7%. Certainly these two player types are folding way more than 7% and as long as the board is dry I’d expect my fold equity to remain good, but not as good as it is right now. I’m in position and have a massive chip lead so bullying works for me here, and in this situation my range could include T2s, 75s, 93o as bluffs, around 15% of the time. But ordinarily I be on 30% (398) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.

An OOP Weak TAg might be calling with 16% (218) TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s. This is a capped range that eliminates some premiums that might have been 3B.

I’d have no appreciable range equity advantage, 51/49.

Flop :4h:4d:6d
Weak TAg checks and I CBet. The workbook asks and I answer that I would CBet 54, As8d, but check my 9s7s. I have oodles of fold equity (-222%) so I could shove my entire range but in this scenario I don’t. I’m keeping my over pairs, top pairs and many diamond connectors and my low end suited connectors with straight potential, 25% (97) AA-66,44,A6s,86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd8d,JdTd,Jd9d,Jd8d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d.

Villain is doing likewise but his capped range limits his combos, 24% (50) TT-66,44,76s,65s,54s,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,8d7d. He calls my 5BB CBet. I am allowing him to continue cheaply. Maybe I have him beat and I’m betting for value.

I gain range equity, 54/45.

Turn :Qc
After Weak TAg checks I bet 14BB, which is 3X my post flop bet and 25% of his stack. What is the purpose of this bet? Optimistically it’s a value bet aimed at building the pot and preventing a fold. It is not big enough to run off a pot committed Weak TAg. It makes sense with me having an A4, Q8 but not K9o. K9o would only be profitable as a shove (-39%). My M Ratio (<2) puts me in shove territory. 55% (52) AA-QQ,66,44,75s,64s,54s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd8d,JdTd,Jd9d,Jd8d,Td9d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d.

Villain is on 100% (14) 66,44,54s,AdJd,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,8d7d.

My range equity advantage is 51/49, another indicator that I should be shoving. I’m not, so I’d better have a hand!

River :9d
I would shove just to get a fold and prevent having to show my cards.

Comments

  • PeanutBoyPeanutBoy CanadaRed Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    You just eliminated 2 players in a huge pot from this $11 tournament and now have a monster stack against some fairly tight opponents under a great deal of pressure.
    It folds to us, Hero is on the button and opens to 3BB a player tagged as a NIT is in the SB and a Weak TAG is on the BB.

    Look at the 2 opponents seated behind you and consider what range of hands you can play profitably here. Consider your fold equity both preflop and potentially on later streets.
    What are you going to do with:
    T2s raise
    75s raise
    93o fold

    Considering our opponents profile, I think you could make an argument of raising with 100% of our range here. But I think we can also make a moderately conservative approach and fold the bottom 17% of our range and expect to make a lot of chips here.

    Opening range (83%):AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-Q2o,JTo-J2o,T9o-T4o,98o-95o,87o-85o,76o-75o,65o-64o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-73s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s

    Only the BB calls preflop. There are 2 players to an 8.2BB flop
    Flop: 4h4d6d

    Once again, carefully consider your fold equity. From your preflop range, would you CBet here with your entire range, or are there any hands you would check behind with?
    Would you check or bet with:
    54 bet
    A♠8♦ bet
    9♠7♠ bet

    This is an interesting flop considering it should hit our range a lot more then it should hit the buttons considering he is probably defending pretty tightly. I think a lot of our continuations bet are going to get through so I would suggest raising here with almost the entirety of our range as an exploitative play vs this particular opponent. We can check back some of our top pairs that can stand a bet on the turn or river and our strongest hands that are looking for the villain to improve on later streets.

    Raise(85%): AA-77,55,33-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,K5o-K2o,QJo-Q7o,Q5o-Q2o,JTo-J7o,J5o-J2o,T9o-T7o,T5o-T4o,98o-97o,95o,87o,85o,75o,54o,AKs-A2s,K4s,Q4s,J4s,T4s,94s,87s,85s-84s,75s-74s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,KhQh,KcQc,KsQs,KhJh,KcJc,KsJs,KhTh,KcTc,KsTs,Kh9h,Kc9c,Ks9s,Kh8h,Kc8c,Ks8s,Kh7h,Kc7c,Ks7s,Kh5h,Kc5c,Ks5s,Kh3h,Kc3c,Ks3s,Kh2h,Kc2c,Ks2s,QhJh,QcJc,QsJs,QhTh,QcTc,QsTs,Qh9h,Qc9c,Qs9s,Qh8h,Qc8c,Qs8s,Qh7h,Qc7c,Qs7s,Qh5h,Qc5c,Qs5s,Qh3h,Qc3c,Qs3s,Qh2h,Qc2c,Qs2s,JhTh,JcTc,JsTs,Jh9h,Jc9c,Js9s,Jh8h,Jc8c,Js8s,Jh7h,Jc7c,Js7s,Jh5h,Jc5c,Js5s,Jh3h,Jc3c,Js3s,Jh2h,Jc2c,Js2s,Th9h,Tc9c,Ts9s,Th8h,Tc8c,Ts8s,Th7h,Tc7c,Ts7s,Th5h,Tc5c,Ts5s,Th3h,Tc3c,Ts3s,Th2h,Tc2c,Ts2s,9h8h,9c8c,9s8s,9h7h,9c7c,9s7s,9h5h,9c5c,9s5s,9h3h,9c3c,9s3s,9h2h,9c2c,9s2s,8h3h,8c3c,8s3s,8h2h,8c2c,8s2s,7h3h,7c3c,7s3s,5h2h,5c2c,5s2s
    check(15%):66,44,K6o,Q6o,J6o,T6o,96o,86o,76o,65o-64o,K6s,Q6s,J6s,T6s,96s,86s,76s,65s-62s,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd5d,Kd3d,Kd2d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd8d,Qd7d,Qd5d,Qd3d,Qd2d,JdTd,Jd9d,Jd8d,Jd7d,Jd5d,Jd3d,Jd2d,Td9d,Td8d,Td7d,Td5d,Td3d,Td2d,9d8d,9d7d,9d5d,9d3d,9d2d,8d3d,8d2d,7d3d,5d2d

    The BB checks and you bet 5BB
    The BB calls your flop bet. There are 2 players to an 18.2BB turn

    turn: 4h4d6dQc

    The BB checks and you bet 14BB

    What is the main purpose of this bet and bet size? What range of hands does it make sense to be doing this with?
    If you were to bet the turn with the following hands, which bet size would you use with:
    A4 bet
    Q8 check
    K9o check

    At this point we have applied a fair bit amount of pressure and Villain is still in the hand. We are likely against a flush draw, some paired 6 or an over pair. Although we could consider that he would re-raise us with a certain percentage of over pairs. We are very rarely against a set considering he doesn't have many 4s in his range. I would slow down but we can still make a lot of flush draw fold witch should be a big percentage of his hands here. So by betting close to pot size we are pricing out flush draws and considering payout implications making it very difficult for villain to call the turn. Hands that have picked up a equity on the turn I can check with, and bet with my best hands, my draws and my ace high that have some outs on the river.

    bet(39%):AA-QQ,AKo-A7o,A5o-A2o,KQo,K4o,Q5o-Q4o,J4o,T4o,87o,85o,75o,54o,AKs-A7s,A5s-A2s,K4s,Q4s,J4s,T4s,94s,87s,85s-84s,75s-74s,54s-53s,43s-42s,32s,KhQh,KsQs,Qh5h,Qs5s,7h3h,7c3c,7s3s,5h2h,5c2c,5s2s
    check(60%):JJ-77,55,33-22,A6o,KJo-K7o,K5o,K3o-K2o,QJo-Q7o,Q3o-Q2o,JTo-J7o,J5o,J3o-J2o,T9o-T7o,T5o,98o-97o,95o,A6s,KhJh,KcJc,KsJs,KhTh,KcTc,KsTs,Kh9h,Kc9c,Ks9s,Kh8h,Kc8c,Ks8s,Kh7h,Kc7c,Ks7s,Kh5h,Kc5c,Ks5s,Kh3h,Kc3c,Ks3s,Kh2h,Kc2c,Ks2s,QhJh,QsJs,QhTh,QsTs,Qh9h,Qs9s,Qh8h,Qs8s,Qh7h,Qs7s,Qh3h,Qs3s,Qh2h,Qs2s,JhTh,JcTc,JsTs,Jh9h,Jc9c,Js9s,Jh8h,Jc8c,Js8s,Jh7h,Jc7c,Js7s,Jh5h,Jc5c,Js5s,Jh3h,Jc3c,Js3s,Jh2h,Jc2c,Js2s,Th9h,Tc9c,Ts9s,Th8h,Tc8c,Ts8s,Th7h,Tc7c,Ts7s,Th5h,Tc5c,Ts5s,Th3h,Tc3c,Ts3s,Th2h,Tc2c,Ts2s,9h8h,9c8c,9s8s,9h7h,9c7c,9s7s,9h5h,9c5c,9s5s,9h3h,9c3c,9s3s,9h2h,9c2c,9s2s,8h3h,8c3c,8s3s,8h2h,8c2c,8s2s

    The BB calls your turn bet. There are 2 players to a 46.2BB river

    river: 4h4d6dQc9d

    The river completes the flush draw and is another overcard to any small-medium pairs the BB may have been calling with.
    Would you check the river behind or go all-in with:

    Made Flushes All-in
    QT check
    Ace-High A diamond hands go all in

    We can still apply a lot of pressure with the flush draw completing because we could easily have full house, our opponent would have likely raised us with QQ giving him only 44,66,99 for a nutted hand and we can apply a maximum amount of pressure on flushes that don't contain an ace by betting with all our aces high that contain the ace of diamond as a bluff. I think it is really hard for our opponent to call with even K high flush draws considering ICM implications and even if we lose the hand we would still have a healthy 60BB stack. We can still shove here with a wide range. WE can check with hands that have picked up equity and have showdown value as well as give up with a lot of our no made hands that don' t have blockers and no showdown value.

    bet(47%):QQ,A4o,K4o,Q4o,J4o,T4o,54o,AKs,AJs-ATs,A8s-A7s,A5s-A2s,K4s,Q4s,J4s,T4s,94s,84s,74s,54s,43s-42s,AdQd,AdKh,AdKc,AdKs,AdJh,AdJc,AdJs,AdTh,AdTc,AdTs,Ad8h,Ad8c,Ad8s,Ad7h,Ad7c,Ad7s,Ad5h,Ad5c,Ad5s,Ad3h,Ad3c,Ad3s,Ad2h,Ad2c,Ad2s
    check(53%):AA-KK,AQo,KQo,Q5o,87o,85o,75o,A9s,87s,85s,75s,53s,32s,AhKh,AcKc,AsKs,AhQh,AsQs,AhJh,AcJc,AsJs,AhTh,AcTc,AsTs,Ah8h,Ac8c,As8s,Ah7h,Ac7c,As7s,Ah5h,Ac5c,As5s,Ah3h,Ac3c,As3s,Ah2h,Ac2c,As2s,AdKh,AdKc,AdKs,KhQh,KsQs,Qh5h,Qs5s,AdJh,AdJc,AdJs,AdTh,AdTc,AdTs,Ad9h,Ad9c,Ad9s,Ad8h,Ad8c,Ad8s,Ad7h,Ad7c,Ad7s,7h3h,7c3c,7s3s,Ad5h,Ad5c,Ad5s,5h2h,5c2c,5s2s,Ad3h,Ad3c,Ad3s,Ad2h,Ad2c,Ad2s
  • NWPatriotNWPatriot Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    Assuming that the BB is a weak TAG player, the fact that he is not going away after 3 bets is somewhat alarming. He either has a hand or is calling, thinking he is being abused by the big stack. Either way, I assumed his starting range was about 22% because he is tight, though it could be much wider.

    At the river, we have a tough decision to make:
    1.) continue barreling - we will relinquish the chip lead and lose a bunch of leverage going forward if we lose the hand
    2.) only bet if we have 2 pr or better - our equity is likely about 75% here and even if we are called we at least have a shot at showdown. This means that we check a good portion of our range, and we have to wait and see what the BB does with this information. If he is tight and has nothing he checks it back. If he has something he bets into us and we have only deferred our decision.

    I just think that this player would not have come along this far with nothing. I would cut my losses, but I am probably wrong.
  • NWPatriotNWPatriot Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    After thinking about it some more, i forgot we were last to act, so check to showdown is an option. If we believe we are only being called by better, then we may have even more incentive to check it down. With 3 diamonds AND a pair on the board, there is all sorts of risk out there. Even a nut flush is at risk with the pair on the board. Lets check it down and see what he was playing with - this information will be quite helpful later.

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