Honestly starting to believe this plus EV stuff is garbage.

anthony bourganthony bourg Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
edited July 2018 in Online Poker Hands
Out of the last 6 times i have had poker aces or pocket kings I get destroyed by some with a much lower pocket pair or even worse two off suited card. Last fiasco goes like this: I’m 6 max table on the button looking at - pair king with the blinds at 50/100 stack size roughly 19 BB. Villain 17 BB UTG shoves with :3s:3d . Flop comes he nails his set! Now the math says that 82%*1700-18%*1700= 1394-306= +1088 EV! So either I’m the unluckest bloke who plays poker or this plus EV stuff is a load of crap. I am so frustrated right now I want to quit all together. What’s the point of learning how to make the right choices if they just don’t pan out for you.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    I hear your frustration. I know that I made the same kind of post a while ago. I came to the following conclusion: If I am getting (or if I feel that I am getting) sucked out on a lot or losing when way ahead, then it usually points to a leak elsewhere -- and a big one.

    It's easy and often accurate to point to variance as one reason why you (or anyone) is losing. But, it's usually inaccurate to point to variance as the primary reason why you (or anyone) is losing.

    I'd start be examining your image. How people perceive you is usually directly correlated with how they play against you. You might find a couple of nuggets there as to why people seem so willing to get their money in when behind against you. Just a thought for a starting place.

    In addition, feel free to post a couple of other examples of hands where there was a +EV but you lost. We might be able to help you cull through them to identify a potential leak, something that can be hard to see on your own when you're in the middle of it.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    One thing you can do to see if its a load of crap is fold AA-TT and shove 22-66 and see if your results get better.

    Obviously we already know the answer to that and the frustration comes from being result oriented over 6 hand sample size and or playing above your bankroll.
  • WickedWicked Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    Poker is a long term game, and +ev plays show themselves over a very large sample size. It's about making the right decision! Always! If you do this the results will show. Keep at it, you're posting on here so your on the right track.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Out of the last 6 times i have had poker aces

    Well, see, that's the problem right there. You're looking for pocket aces. That makes all the difference.
    So either I’m the unluckest bloke who plays poker or this plus EV stuff is a load of crap.

    You don't know what unlucky is, young man :) You're not even close. It could easily get worse before it gets better. No one said poker is for wimps.
  • keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    I hear your frustration. I know that I made the same kind of post a while ago. I came to the following conclusion: If I am getting (or if I feel that I am getting) sucked out on a lot or losing when way ahead, then it usually points to a leak elsewhere -- and a big one.

    what leaks do you find when you get the money in as a favorite but they get there on you? if people keep catching up after the moneys in then you did your job.

    or do you mean they improve before the money is jammed and you get too attached to a hand that was favorite on the previous street?
  • anthony bourganthony bourg Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    Out of the last 6 times i have had poker aces

    Well, see, that's the problem right there. You're looking for pocket aces. That makes all the difference.
    So either I’m the unluckest bloke who plays poker or this plus EV stuff is a load of crap.

    You don't know what unlucky is, young man :) You're not even close. It could easily get worse before it gets better. No one said poker is for wimps.

    Don’t you speak that evil on me Ricky Bobby!
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    keasbey wrote: »
    I hear your frustration. I know that I made the same kind of post a while ago. I came to the following conclusion: If I am getting (or if I feel that I am getting) sucked out on a lot or losing when way ahead, then it usually points to a leak elsewhere -- and a big one.

    what leaks do you find when you get the money in as a favorite but they get there on you? if people keep catching up after the moneys in then you did your job.

    or do you mean they improve before the money is jammed and you get too attached to a hand that was favorite on the previous street?

    If other players consistently get it in when I am a favorite, yes, that's good in theory. The question, though, is, "Why?"

    Are they calling because they' re calling stations? Or because I have been spewing a lot this session (though I happen to be ahead here)? Or because they have seen some failed bluffs?

    It's also possible that a shove from me is a +EV but so is a call from V!

    Depending on those answers, a different leak (or different leaks) might emerge. Remember: They're calling ME, not my hand.

    Here's another possibility: OP is overly aggressive shoving every edge. Even if you know that you're a 51% favorite, that doesn't automatically mean to shove. Remember that V might still have the right odds to call.

    Here's one possible example of a preferred play to shoving when you're ahead: Maybe you're playing against an opponent who simply doesn't believe you when you bet. In those cases, you can pot control until the river comes and you almost definitely have the best hand. Why shove on the flop when you have a 55% edge when this opponent will call down on the river when the run-out gives you a 90% edge?

    Bottom line: If others are calling you down lightly all the time, it could be simple variance. It could be that you have an image that induces calls -- and that will increase variance. It could be that they're call is a +EV even if you are ahead. It could be that you're pushing edges that you don't need to push. And it could certainly be a host of other possibilities...

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭✭
    Out of the last 6 times i have had poker aces or pocket kings I get destroyed by some with a much lower pocket pair or even worse two off suited card. Last fiasco goes like this: I’m 6 max table on the button looking at - pair king with the blinds at 50/100 stack size roughly 19 BB. Villain 17 BB UTG shoves with :3s:3d . Flop comes he nails his set! Now the math says that 82%*1700-18%*1700= 1394-306= +1088 EV! So either I’m the unluckest bloke who plays poker or this plus EV stuff is a load of crap. I am so frustrated right now I want to quit all together. What’s the point of learning how to make the right choices if they just don’t pan out for you.

    You shall not forget that EV is the expected value is the long-run average value of repetitions of the games played.

    Yes, you will win money after a tremendous number of games played. But in the short term - "only" several occurrences - you can lose all of them. That's the standard deviation. It's totally normal. And sometimes you can even get in an extreme situation, far from the mean - it's not impossible, even if very unlikely, to lose 100x in a row AA v. 72o. You can see this happening everyday in every casinos at the roulette: every time there is 50% chance of red or black (minus 0 and ev. 00), but still you can easily witness series of 6-12 red or black in a row which is a barely a 1% chance of occurrence.

    What is important is:
    - If you play +EV, you will win money in the long run. Get patient
    - What is important is not to win this hand, but to play well (aka +EV)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,039 -
    Red wrote: »
    You shall not forget that EV is the expected value is the long-run average value of repetitions of the games played.

    ...

    What is important is:
    - If you play +EV, you will win money in the long run. Get patient
    - What is important is not to win this hand, but to play well (aka +EV)

    Very well said.
  • keasbeykeasbey Red Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    @moishetreats never really thought about it that way. thank u for the perspective!
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    @moishetreats "They are calling ME, not my hand". For some reason this was a huge light bulb in my head. TYVM.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    You shall not forget that EV is the expected value is the long-run average value of repetitions of the games played.

    Even that is an approximation, to help explain to our feeble brains what infinity is. So EV is not the long run average, it is the theoretical expectation right now.
    Red wrote: »
    What is important is not to win this hand, but to play well (aka +EV)

    Right. What the OP doesn't understand is that once he's made a correct decision, he's already won the game. If you want guaranteed payouts after your decisions, then don't play poker - buy Treasury Bills. With lower risk comes lower payouts.

  • LeonardLeonard Red Chipper Posts: 249 ✭✭
    Someone a while back taught me something about EV that might be helpful mentally.

    He called it the EV bank of deposits and withdrawals.

    So when you shove all in preflop with AA vs 33 and say your 80 20 favorite preflop. Simple math the pot is $100. So $80 is your withdrawal EV and $20 is your opponents withdrawal EV. So since there is only one winner, assuming you win this pot, you made a withdrawal of $100 and you owe the EV bank $20, while the loser of this hand 33 is owed $20 since he won nothing.

    So in reverse if you lost this hand than you are owed $80 and the 33 hand winner needs to pay back the EV bank $80.

    So yes it sucks to lose when you are huge favorites but on the flip size, when you win, technically your opponent has an EV stake as well and when you win the entire pot as a favorite you still owe the EV bank money. So when you lose as a favorite just think of it as returning the money you owed when you were the favorite and won.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 992 ✭✭✭✭
    Jared Tendler who coaches and writes about the mental game of poker has a concept I often find helpful.

    He compares tilt and or frustration as a glass of water getting filled up. the idea is every time you get a bad beat, at bit more water goes into the glass, when your hand holds up, a bit of water leaves your glass, over time water leaves your glass.

    But when you get one bad beat after another, and not enough time, or "normalcy" occurs around it you glass overflows and you tilt and or maybe begin to think that this EV thing is garbage.

    If you had AA and KK cracked 6 times over a year you probably would would not have given it a second thought...but because it occurred in a short time your glass overflowed.

    If it is affecting your play, take some time off, if its just frustrating, you can keep playing but be aware that another bad beat is likely to affect your play and maybe quit for a while if you get another one as your glass is getting close to overflowing..
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In the pregame speech for the bronze medal 1980 Olympic hockey game USA vs. Soviet Union, the coach said (at least in the movie version): "One game. If we played 'em 10 times, they might win 9. But not this game - not tonight."

    The problem when some players hold an 80% advantage is that they expect to win every time because they hold an 80% advantage every time. The only surprising thing would be if it actually held up every time, not if the other side wins sometimes.
  • anthony bourganthony bourg Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    So many nuggets of info here thanks guys! I was tilting it was a 16 hour poker session, and I started to run really bad, and got super frustrated, so I went to sleep and woke up to allot of responses that made me go ahead and get some study time in. Gonna go grocery shopping I will be back on the tables later today!
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You are not alone. I fall prey to the same emotions. It's frustrating to sit there all night watching everyone around you get lucky. 12 hours starts to feel like forever, and how could it have not evened out by now???
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,798 -
    I was tilting it was a 16 hour poker session, and I started to run really bad, and got super frustrated

    There is your problem.
    I went to sleep and woke up to allot of responses that made me go ahead and get some study time in.

    There is your solution.

    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks

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