Go for max value on river with a set?

RisingDoughRisingDough Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
1/2 at Bally's LV and UTG+1 opens for $10 and I am on button with :Ts :Td . It folds to me and I elect to just call. I have position and don't want to face a 4 bet. The BB comes along and we see a flop of :Tc :8h :3s . BB checks and UTG+1 C-bets for $15 into $26 and I call, BB folds. I don't want to raise here and blow him off broadway cards that might come. If he has over pair he will barrel off regardless. Turn is the :Qh and he checks. I bet now for value $40 into $56 and he calls. The river comes the :Kd and now he leads for $85 into $136 and he has $90 behind. The question is do we just call here or do we shove? I don't think he checks turn with QQ or KK so I think his most likely holding is AK.

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Answers

  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Oh and in case I wasn't clear, I know you said you didn't want to face a 4bet, but if you're only being 4bet by hands that have you crushed (QQ+) then you can just safely fold to a 4bet, which if that is the case saves you loads of money on a 337 flop. If he flats you, however, you can safely proceed for stacks on an undercard flop, only losing to JJ (maybe he 4bets that anyway) or flopped sets.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Post Flop villain made a small cbet

    My experience with bad villain at low stakes is that a 50% pot size c-bet (here 15$ into 26$) is casual, not "small".
    Of course, this vary between Villain, table, cities, countries... Yet I'd not make too much assumption about it.

    I but follow the betting pattern of Villain. If he c-bet always rather big (like 80% pot size bet) and this time around half pot, then yes, we can make a lot of assumption.
    Austin wrote: »
    I'm leaning towards just calling on the river. Leaving money behind indicates strength, check call turn and lead river also indicates strength, sizing indicates strength..... I'm not nitty enough to fold, but not aggro enough to raise either.
    I agree

    Also TT is way too strong (maybe the top of our range with J9), so I'm never folding here.

    Raising makes no sense aka I think only hands which beat us will call (low played QQ and J9, loose AJ, weakly played KK).

    Also knowing what he holds is a central info, so I don't want to raise and find a fold: I want to know what holding he had with such a weird line.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2
    Red wrote: »
    Also knowing what he holds is a central info, so I don't want to raise and find a fold: I want to know what holding he had with such a weird line.

    You're willing not to (likely) value bet $90 just so that you can see this particular V's cards in this particular hand? Wouldn't you just rather have the $90?

    And, don't forget: V -- and the table -- get the same info about you. When V shows the likely losing hand, you have to show yours.

    This reasoning is just way off, IMO.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    @moishetreats don't misquote me :)
    If we think Villain has a not-great hand (aka a weakling range), then raising will find just find call when we are beat - or beat very often. There is no value if we got only/mostly folds by the worst hands we are targetting
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    @moishetreats don't misquote me :)
    If we think Villain has a not-great hand (aka a weakling range), then raising will find just find call when we are beat - or beat very often. There is no value if we got only/mostly folds by the worst hands we are targetting

    I hear ya'. I still think that there are enough hands that are behind that would call.

    Didn't mean to misquote you. Just meant to identify that that particular reasoning doesn't resonate with me, but I certainly didn't mean to suggest that that was your main point. Thanks for the opportunity to clarify!
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    All good so. At the end, we disagree only about the calling range i.e. the opportunity to raise river - which is totally fine considering the little info about Villain and this weird line.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @EatRunPoker you made a pretty good post, but some of your range I would discount quite a bit. Example why would KJ bet the flop but not barrel the turn? Same with AK, AJ, etc. You also listed 77, not sure how that fits the story.

    I think your range is on the right track except for K9 as player is raising from EP. If we are assuming player is average I would stick to broadways and go lower only on suited varieties I.e Q9s, K4s etc.

    I could just be a nit by not raising here. Not maximizing my return. I am also not worried about future hands and being balanced about not raising here and only repping absolute nuts in the future.

    You should post more. Pretty well written thought process including combos you wrote.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    @moishetreats don't misquote me :)
    If we think Villain has a not-great hand (aka a weakling range), then raising will find just find call when we are beat - or beat very often. There is no value if we got only/mostly folds by the worst hands we are targetting

    I play a ton of live 1-2 and I have to say I think you are giving villain too much credit. OP didn't specify player type here, so we have to assume he's average. The average 1-2 player is just plain too wide in almost every spot (except 3 and 4 betting pre of course). This guy gets to the river here with all kinds of hands. Let's not forget there was a flush draw on the turn when he called 3/4 pot. He is calling ALL flush draws there 100% of the time. So let's look at what he arrives at river with (before he bets 85):

    88 - 3 combos
    KJ - 12 combos
    K10 - 3 combos
    Q10 - 3 combos (strange 1-2 trappy turn ch - you will see this sometimes)
    AKh, AJh, A10h, A9h, A7h, A5h, A3h, A2h, K9h - 9 combos
    AK - 11 combos (yes 1-2 players get married to this hand a lot in this spot)
    A10 - 3 combos
    QQ - 3 combos
    KK - 3 combos ( although almost can throw this out as he'd always bet turn)
    AA - 6 combos (again, throw it out he's betting turn, but it's possible)
    JJ - 6 combos
    99 - 6 combos
    77 - 6 combos

    If that's so, I'd agree. I but strongly disagree about this range.
    - Why, for example, would he check/call KK or AA on Th8x3x-Qh turn?
    - On the other side, why would he donkbet and call with AT or 77 on T83-Q-K after you bet turn and raise river?

  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    If that's so, I'd agree. I but strongly disagree about this range.
    - Why, for example, would he check/call KK or AA on Th8x3x-Qh turn?
    - On the other side, why would he donkbet and call with AT or 77 on T83-Q-K after you bet turn and raise river?

    @Red I don't think he'd donk call off with A10 or 77. If you read my comment, you will see I was first listing the combos he arrives at river with. Then I listed out the combos he's leading for $85 with in the next set of combos. A10 and 77 are not in that list. The most important list is what is he donking river with and I just think it's a lot less "only nuts" than some people are giving credit for.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    I'm not sure I posted that last one correctly?

    @Austin with 77 I was just pointing out the garbage he arrives at river with, not what he leads. Yes I think he opens 77, cbets that flop, checks turn, but doesn't believe opponent and calls the hero's turn bet. Happens all the time at 1-2.

    Also, referring to KJ, most 1-2 players don't know which board textures to cbet and which not to, especially multiway pots. They are not thinking about the effective stack sizes and if there are good turn cards for barreling. They are just cbetting close to 100%, because they read it in the one book they ever read. Probably Super System or something. So KJ makes a lot of sense. When they pick up the equity on the turn they are scared as they know they'll not likely hit it, and they are certain hero has a strong hand that will not fold. They check, they call to draw out, they hit K. They like King (it matched!) and they bet out. Yes I see this happen all the time at 1-2.

    I agree that this line with KJ is awful, but seriously how many times have you played 1-2 only to have some donkey at the table playing this way and hitting and winning huge pots against you? It does happen and it sucks. Good players know how to make them pay hefty for these mistakes, bad players let them get away with their wideness and not charge them max value for their flaws. Charging max value when they have medium strength that they overvalue is how we recover the losses incurred when he binks his straight and gets paid off.

    At 1-2 I am confident this is a slam dunk shove on the river. I know his $85 seems very strong to a Red Chipper who's spending hours analyzing this hand with 4-5 other guys for days on end, but let's be real... a 1-2 player on a $200 stack at Ballys is just not thinking this way. I've seen people even show up on this river with A9h and then call the river just cuz he "didn't believe you". I've seen worse than that, but we won't go there.

    I am not trying to poke fun, or insinuate that all 1-2 players are horrible--they're not. I am just saying this guy has on average a much wider range than he should (he's playing 1-2 and probably not professionally, therefore he HAS to play more hands at 23 hands/hour dealt). This is why I think he opens K9o here. Not necessarily every time, but sometimes depending on mood, conversation, drinking situation, etc. So we can half the combos of K9 I suppose, but that doesn't change our decision to shove for the last $90 on the river.

    This is a good hand to discuss though, and by all means I'm not loving live when he donks that $85. I do think it's close, but I think we should go for the extra $90 here, but yes it's close and live reads come into play here a lot as well. This is a GREAT spot to tank shove or tank call whichever it is and get a TON of info on villain. It should be a difficult spot for villain to be getting stared at on and I find these spots to be most revealing and, when correct, creates a very strong image for hero that he can use to exploit for the next hour or so.


  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    @Austin thanks I will be posting more and hopefully this community proves to be a lasting one for me. I have tried posting hands in various other places, but usually don't get much quality feedback. I like how the Red Chip Community seems to be pretty active.

    I am heading to Parx for their Big Staxx series right now actually, gotta run.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @EatRunPoker please don't ever Tank!
    This is a GREAT spot to tank shove or tank call

    This is the reason there is only 23 hands an hour.

    Honest story yesterday when I was playing 4 people limped in and it came down to the button who started tanking after about 20 seconds

    Austin "please don't take too much time."

    *keep in mind I almost never call clock or make comments like this in medium to big pots if I think its a tough spot. I give all the time they want. But when your facing a bunch of limpers and have $3 to call or raise don't waste everyone's time. .

    Btn "you can call clock if you want but dont make comments"

    Austin snap calls "clock"

    Btn waits like 20 seconds more raises to $43...

    Blinds fold UTG shoves for like $150 they go heads up in a flip UTG QQ btm AKs. Board runs out KT43Q

    I thought it was good Karma. Guy is super rude all the time to dealers, floor, and people at the tables. He plays there often and one of the only people I would talk shit to because of his rude behavior. Honestly he's easy money but waste so much time with his decisions I rather play against a tougher player.

    Another hand I raised KTs we go 3 ways to the flop. 963ss.
    I bet \ he calls
    Turn 963Ass
    I bet
    He starts tanking again and gives this rant to the dealer "really? Out of all the cards you can put out there.. You put an ace. I don't understand why you would do that. 'i have so many outs.' I was going to call but you had to give him his ace." Waits like 15 more seconds and angrily folds. As he slams his cards down a 2c flips over and me and guy on my left start laughing. He gets mad "why are you laughing?" I explained because of your speech with "so many outs" what did you have like 42? If you showed a diamond or 87 etc.. i would understand, but your just wasting time."

    Ok there is my small rant about tanking. At least on the river if you know your going to call and not raise. If you are seriously considering raising then go ahead and raise maybe pause for 15 seconds or something, but anything over 30 seconds is excessive imo for a studied player. Rec players I give them extra time. Think I've onlu called clock twice in like a year. 1st time pot was like $400 and guy is tanking on a $75 bet with top and middle pair on the river. Took like 3 min then i called clock. After seeing his hand I thought I would have to call clock at least 5 more times that session.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    @Austin when I say tank shove I mean like 20 -40 seconds. This is a big spot and completely worthy of thinking through all the streets and all the combos. I see nothing wrong with a legit tank. I never advocate for tanking just to tank.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    If that's so, I'd agree. I but strongly disagree about this range.
    - Why, for example, would he check/call KK or AA on Th8x3x-Qh turn?
    - On the other side, why would he donkbet and call with AT or 77 on T83-Q-K after you bet turn and raise river?

    @Red I don't think he'd donk call off with A10 or 77. If you read my comment, you will see I was first listing the combos he arrives at river with. Then I listed out the combos he's leading for $85 with in the next set of combos. A10 and 77 are not in that list. The most important list is what is he donking river with and I just think it's a lot less "only nuts" than some people are giving credit for.

    I agree (about not only nutted hands he takes with on river). That's why I'd never fold.

    But
    At 1-2 I am confident this is a slam dunk shove on the river. I know his $85 seems very strong to a Red Chipper who's spending hours analyzing this hand with 4-5 other guys for days on end, but let's be real... a 1-2 player on a $200 stack at Ballys is just not thinking this way

    This is wrong IMHO. Put him on a range: what does he donk with ? What does he call your raise-shove with ? How many combo on river bet/call your shove do you beat ? How many beat you?

    You've only stated that shoving will be easily called and so profitable. Still, you didn't show any range analysis with equilab, flopzilla (or any other software) to prove us you're right. I did my homework - but didn't publish because not my hand review - to let me think shoving after the donkbet isn't good.

    Also, we spent hours analyzing hands to improve. No studies, no improvement.

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