Interesting river decision

EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
2-5 NL

I have $1,200. There's one limp from utg2 and I look down at :2s :3s and decide to raise to $20. I use smaller sizing here, because I'm not really iso-ing as much as I'm just opening, taking the lead in the hand, etc. If I were iso-ing with strong hand I would size up to around 30-35. This strategy has never been exploited in this game as no one is thinking. It folds to the sb who's a decent pro capable of 3-betting wide who raises to $65. The limper calls and now I decide to overcall in position and getting some really good odds with deep stacks. The villain has the same effective stack and the limper has around $800.

Flop :2h :2c :Tc and villain leads out $75. Limper folds and I flat. Turn is :3c and now villain checks. I bet $100 into $340. He calls. River is :7h and villain checks again. I slide out two stacks of red for a $200 bet into the $540 pot. Villain now check raises to $400. I have about $800 behind and I think about shoving here, but I elect to just call. He shows :Kc :Qc for the turned flush that he decided to slow play.

I'm conflicted here, because I think I missed some value here. As I'm writing this I'm certain I missed some value, lol. This happened last night after playing nothing but solid poker, generally tight/patient where I know my line here looked very strong to villain, who is a good thinking player. I so rarely get check raised on rivers in this game and generally any aggression like this is the stone nuts. If anyone were capable of getting out of line here, it was him, but still I've never played a hand with him where he has gotten out of line.

I feel like he just folds if I jam river so often and only calls with 1010 and 77 for the bigger boat. I think he would fold the K high flush, but maybe call the A high flush (maybe not even). That leaves him like 3 combos of A high flush AK AQ AJ and maybe A3-A5 for half those combos. So basically I think it's like 3-6 combos of flush that call my shove and 6 combos of boat that beat me.

My live read is that this guy knows I'm super strong here and would only be calling this bet with his flushes, so I elect to take the lower variance approach and call the raise and scoop a nice $1,340 pot.

Also, the game is great and there's a ton of other easier spots.

Comments

  • AkashicAkashic Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    What is the point of this one?
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    What are your thoughts on the river decision after being check raised? Should we be shoving or clicking it back? Or just flatting?
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 267 ✭✭✭
    I'm seeing a few issues with this hand.

    First, you didn't mention what your position was, but you said it folded to SB after you opened, so I guess you weren't the button. I really do not think you should be opening this hand, unless the limper is very bad and you want to iso and have a plan for dealing with him post flop, AND you are confident that your $20 bet will get folds. You mentioned making this raise has not been getting exploited at this table, but then you also said the SB is likely to 3-bet you light. If that's the case, it seems like more reason not to raise here.

    Then, I guess you close the action with position on everyone and you're pretty deep, so it's not the worst call in the world, but you're going to have to be willing to play some poker after the flop.

    As played, I think the flat on the flop is good. Let him keep firing the turn. Once he checks the turn, I think you should be betting more - something like 225. Plenty of overpairs and one high club hands can continue. Flushes will probably just get it in on the turn.

    On the river, I disagree that villain thinks your line looks strong. He would probably not be checkraising if that were the case. As played, it's close, but I could see a shove being good because he's probably gonna look you up with a decent amount of ace high flushes. Note, if you had bet more on the turn, getting it in on the river would be a lot easier.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭✭
    I use smaller sizing here, because I'm not really iso-ing as much as I'm just opening, taking the lead in the hand, etc. If I were iso-ing with strong hand I would size up to around 30-35. This strategy has never been exploited in this game as no one is thinking.

    I don't understand this. What is the difference in term of strategy and ranges?
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    I use smaller sizing here, because I'm not really iso-ing as much as I'm just opening, taking the lead in the hand, etc. If I were iso-ing with strong hand I would size up to around 30-35. This strategy has never been exploited in this game as no one is thinking.

    I don't understand this. What is the difference in term of strategy and ranges?

    When someone limps and you raise that is an Isolation raise, and an isolation raise in this game would generally be bigger than 20. I am merely stating I am deviating from standard Iso strategy and raising smaller with a weaker hand. I like to do this with hands that I can call a 3bet with (3bet will be smaller) and it's cheaper, but accomplishes close to the same result as making it $35 which is the standard Iso sizing (and what I would do if I held a strong hand).
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB DetroitRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭
    You painted a good picture of what you think he could have. But what can he think you have?

    2x A2s,1x 22, 3xTT, 6x AA, 6xKK, 6xQQ, 6xJJ, Clubbed A.

    Looks like a lot there he beats.

  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    @Roblivion Yes I very much agree with your turn sizing. I guess I was trying to look suspicious there, but then didn't follow up by jamming river. You are right if I bet 200 - 250 on turn we get it in easy by river and I'm significantly ahead of his get it in range there. I actually didn't even think about my turn sizing too much. Thank you.

    I was in the CO when I opened and yes the limper is super weak and yes I am very willing to go to the streets in this game and play some post flop poker, especially against the other opponents.

    When I say the sb is capable of 3betting wide I don't think he's just doing this often against me. I would estimate he 3bets me here like 5-10% of the time and I am very capable of flatting any 3bet with any hand that I open here on these stack sizes and playing him post flop. Obviously 23s is bottom of my range, but as deep as we are I am fine with it, especially when limper calls. If limper folded I would have folded to his 3bet. Remember, he's only 3betting there 5-10% of the time. This is extremely wide at these stakes.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This hand is a clear as day example of two key concepts that are opposite sides of the same coin.

    1) not knowing where you are in a static range, and thus having no framework for knowing what to do, and

    2) when you are constructing dynamically, you should be playing more against their range than yours. When you de-elevate the top holdings you represent on the turn through a wager that instead carries a wider range, you create the incentive for opponent to elevate his holding in his own range, meaning that he has more thin value and potential air than he otherwise would on the river.

    GL.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Thanks @persuadeo that makes perfect sense. My turn sizing is too small which de-elevates both of our ranges. Got it. So as played, I should go for max value and shove targeting his flush combos? I just think he folds small flushes on river and all his over pair/air combos.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,832 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He likely does fold, but at least we are operating clearly at that point and recognise that we have manipulated a situation where it is possible to get thinner value. As 1) implies, when your distribution has a massive number of combos, you can end up in a no man's land where pat hands become calls because your raises won't be called by worse very often - in this hand you did this by instinct but without understanding how the turn bet had created a less natural scenario.

    But then imagine the situation where you are both deeper and your turn sizing was 75% or 66% - now your river action is a more cut and dried call, unlike as played.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Effective stacks are $800? I don't like calling the 3bet because your not willing to stack off despite making a huge hand. When your investing $65 preflop how much do you need to make postflop for implied odds to be meaningful? Set mining is usually 20x and SCs are usually 30x. I think both are a little high, but then again I am not playing to purely make a hand.

    With that said if your not stacking off postflop then don't call the 3bet. There will be way worse boards for you than this one.

    Realistically I would only give him 1 combo of TT at max. I don't think he 3bets 77 as you said he is 3betting only 5-10%. Reason I only give him 1 combo is because OOP as the 3 bettor he would keep barreling flop, turn, & river to get stacks in.

    So he has 1 combo of a boat that your scared of and if he is 3 betting as high as 10% I would give him at least 10 flush combos for suited broadways and Axs.

    On a side note I know split suit talks about opening up your preflop range a bit. Your strategy is just playing exploitable against their tendency. I do the same thing in my games but usually 54s is lowest part of my range. They will call $20 more often than $35, but fold to a lot of flop cbets, so instead of risking $35 to win $10-$15 for preflop folds, your risking maybe $50 to win $25-$30 with a half pot cbet. With my stronger hands ill go to $25, just 1bb more that plays a little better postflop and doesn't need a high SPR.

    Explain effective stacks. One point you said villain has same effective stack as limper $800.

    800-65-75-100 leaves $560 on the river, when you bet 200 and he makes it $400 there is only $160 behind right? Seems like a really easy click back spot and he can't fold any flush with those odds. Folding $160 into $1500+? I don't think so....
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    2-5 NL

    I have $1,200.

    You missed the first sentence of my post which is key info. $1,200 (probably even closer to $1,250). And yes after thinking through this more I think I have to just get it all in, even with the strong check raise line by villain on river. Big mistake was turn sizing, should've been more like 180-240 wouldn't you agree @Austin? I'm sure knowing the proper stack size makes this make a little more sense though.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    2-5 NL

    I have $1,200.

    You missed the first sentence of my post which is key info. $1,200 (probably even closer to $1,250). And yes after thinking through this more I think I have to just get it all in, even with the strong check raise line by villain on river. Big mistake was turn sizing, should've been more like 180-240 wouldn't you agree @Austin? I'm sure knowing the proper stack size makes this make a little more sense though.
    The villain has the same effective stack and the limper has around $800

    You having $1200 is NOT the effective stack. You already know that. Question is calling a 3bet with 32s for $65 porifitable? SPR is 3.6 being 3 ways around $200 in the middle with $735 remaining in the effective stacks.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    @Austin I understand the confusion and I am sorry if my post isn't entirely clear. I am new to posting hands. When I said the villain has the same effective stack I am referring to the 3 bettor having the same stack as myself not the same as the limper, so effective stacks are around $1200. The limp caller is a fit/fold insignificant piece of this hand that I can maneuver quite well against in position on nearly any stack size and certainly 160bb is enough. He folds immediately on flop of course and is insignificant.

    So the effective stacks are 240 bb and I'm in position calling 45 to see a flop with $200 in the middle and $1,150 behind. I see nothing wrong with mixing in even the weakest holdings like 23s in spots like this. I play a tight (approx) 18 12 6 (vpip pfr 3b) in this game and I like to mix in some really strange things about once or twice per session (8 hours) and this being one from last night. Once the limper calls I am calling with 100% of my range in this spot.

    I posted this hand, because it's a bit outside of the usual play. I play 1,000 live hands a week and I'm not going to bore you with my open with KK and had to fold to significant aggression in a multiway pot on a 78J flop. Meh. I am sharing this hand, because I think I made a big mistake by not shoving river after being check raised, but in game it just felt so right to just flat and I'm curious if theres any merit to my thinking, or was that just me seeing monsters in the closet?

    Also, in sharing I did realize my turn sizing was too small. I knew it was small when I bet it (of course), but did so intentionally to string my opponent along a bit and to look a little weak, but honestly I think in retrospect it was a mistake and I should have gone with the more standard sizing when checked to of 180 -240.

    Anyways, maybe I'm jumping the gun, and when you realize villain did in fact have $1,200+ stack you will agree the 23s is played fine pre. Maybe not. But I feel strongly about my decisions preflop.

    Now, knowing the 3betting villain in the sb had me covered, do you see why I flatted pre in position with 23s in a 3 way pot? Again, this is not my standard play, but something I do occasionally to mix things up and keep my overall frequencies in line for that given hour or so. I do not believe in letting card distribution be the "be all end all" in deciding which hands to play.

    Thanks for taking the time to review this with me Austin; I really do appreciate the intelligent conversation.
  • VegaVega Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    I'm seeing a few issues with this hand.

    First, you didn't mention what your position was, but you said it folded to SB after you opened, so I guess you weren't the button. I really do not think you should be opening this hand, unless the limper is very bad and you want to iso and have a plan for dealing with him post flop, AND you are confident that your $20 bet will get folds. You mentioned making this raise has not been getting exploited at this table, but then you also said the SB is likely to 3-bet you light. If that's the case, it seems like more reason not to raise here.

    Then, I guess you close the action with position on everyone and you're pretty deep, so it's not the worst call in the world, but you're going to have to be willing to play some poker after the flop.

    As played, I think the flat on the flop is good. Let him keep firing the turn. Once he checks the turn, I think you should be betting more - something like 225. Plenty of overpairs and one high club hands can continue. Flushes will probably just get it in on the turn.

    On the river, I disagree that villain thinks your line looks strong. He would probably not be checkraising if that were the case. As played, it's close, but I could see a shove being good because he's probably gonna look you up with a decent amount of ace high flushes. Note, if you had bet more on the turn, getting it in on the river would be a lot easier.

    I agree with all of this. The betting seems off on the turn, and I don't agree he thinks you look strong. I think the river bet almost looks like a blocking bet more than anything.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    edited August 2018
    Oh and before you say anything about my preflop numbers (those are estimates) please keep in mind I'm doing this in a game of mostly amateurs playing respective numbers of 40 10 3, so I'm much tighter than the field and much more competent post flop..
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $2\$5 Effective stacks $1250

    Utg folds
    Utg+1 folds
    Utg+2 ($800) calls $5
    *stats 40-10-3*
    Mp1 folds
    LJ folds
    Hero CO ($1250) :2S: :3s raise to $20
    *stats 18-12-6*
    Btn folds
    Sb ($1250) 3bet to $65
    *Pro stats 23-17-7*
    Bb folds
    Utg2 calls $60
    Hero calls $45

    Flop ($200) :2H: :2C: :TC:
    SB ($1185) bets $75
    Utg2 folds
    Hero ($1185) calls $75

    Turn ($350) :3C:
    SB ($1115) checks
    Hero ($1115) bets $100
    Sb calls

    River ($550) :7H:
    Sb ($1015) checks
    Hero ($1015) bets $200
    SB raises to $400 ($615 behind)
    Hero ???

    Now that we have all the facts we can lay out a more clear hand history. I'm guessing the "pro" plays 23\17 style, but I put 7% 3bet because you said 5-10%, so I met you in the middle and that is the important stat.

    1) one reason why players do not like 3 betting A2s, but rather A3s-A5s because A2 is the only wheel ace that can't flop open ended. Andrew Brokos talks about this in the 3 betting series. The same logic can be applied to SCs, which is why I usually only go down to 54s. Hard to flop OE besides 45x with 32s. With that said I won't get too much into preflop as your calling $45 to win $155 getting 3.44 :1 so have to realize about 22% equity. Which I think is fine once you get to this point and are 250bb effective.

    2) I am looking to make 20x whatever bet I am calling and this part of the math I need some help on, maybe from @Red because Idk if it should be 20x the $65 or 20x the $45. Ill go with 20x the $45 which is $900 in terms of implied odds. Some people say 30x for SCs which is a little high IMO.

    3) This is the 7% I gave villain, which we have to consider on the turn.
    j7cx7jtapjou.png

    Seeing how villain bet 1\3 roughly on the flop, maybe he does this with his whole range, but followed up with a check on the turn, leads me to believe he has a lot of air on the turn. Some of his air though may continue like AcQx or AxKc etc vs a small bet given your range. You will have a lot of weak hands on the turn, but also need to set up stacks. In general you are looking for some fold equity on the turn. If you bet around $250 into $350 you will be left with $865 effective and pot will be $850 going to the river. This also leverages stacks when you are bluffing putting over pairs JJ+ in a tough river spot.

    How does this all sound?
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Thank you for laying this out clearly like this. I will try to mimic this in future posts. Everything sounds pretty accurate, except that I think villain is 3betting a much wider range, perhaps twice as wide, but only 50% of the time if that makes sense? Is there a term for this? So he does have 77 for sure in that range and JQs and other suited connectors like 89s and even as far down as 67s occasionally. But with a strategy of course of 3betting 100% the very top of that range, and 50/50 on much of it, and then 30/70 the bottom portion. I think he very much 3bets 77 here 40-50% of the time in this exact spot.

    I am very interested in point (2). Where does this math come from? Is it standard strategy when calling with speculative holdings? I play pretty well post flop and likely take pots away in position more often than I should be allowed to. I am also very capable of heroing a big river bet with a lonely pair of 2's here on certain runouts/lines.

    Seriously, thanks for taking an interest and I really will try to lay things out this way from now on.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thank you for laying this out clearly like this. I will try to mimic this in future posts. Everything sounds pretty accurate, except that I think villain is 3betting a much wider range, perhaps twice as wide, but only 50% of the time if that makes sense? Is there a term for this? So he does have 77 for sure in that range and JQs and other suited connectors like 89s and even as far down as 67s occasionally. But with a strategy of course of 3betting 100% the very top of that range, and 50/50 on much of it, and then 30/70 the bottom portion. I think he very much 3bets 77 here 40-50% of the time in this exact spot.

    I am very interested in point (2). Where does this math come from? Is it standard strategy when calling with speculative holdings? I play pretty well post flop and likely take pots away in position more often than I should be allowed to. I am also very capable of heroing a big river bet with a lonely pair of 2's here on certain runouts/lines.

    Seriously, thanks for taking an interest and I really will try to lay things out this way from now on.

    15x PP
    20x Axs
    30x Scs

    It's an old rule of thumb, I think from CLP. Not sure if it orginated from there or not.

    The wider his 3 bet range the more you can flat and float. Just pay attention to how often he double barrels and sizing. If he is 3betting wider than he has a ton more flushes. Its hard for 77 to arrive on this river. Does he float 77 on the turn given you called flop and bet the turn? Hard for you to have worse than 77 on a T22 flop where flush completes on turn.

    How many flushes does he have compared to boats? 1 combo TT, 1 combo 77, reduced combos since I think he raises or continues to bet turn with TT. Leaving his range pretty weak compared to your hand.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Yeah I think in game I was just really thrown off by his river check raise as it almost NEVER happens to me in my games. I mean literally maybe once or twice a month and I play 40 hours a week.

    That said, I definitely should be ripping it in on the river. I made a mistake erring on the side of caution ( not my norm lol).

    When you say 1 combo of 1010 are you discounting the actual 3 he could have? Because I was thinking there were 6 combos of hands that beat me versus like 4-5 that call a shove that I beat (AK, AQ, AJ, A4, A5 clubs), which is why I didn't shove the remaining stack. (Yes, I could discount the 77 to like 1.5 combos as some wouldn't get here).

    Like I said, I do think in retrospect as played I need to get it in and put all his flushes in a terrible spot and who knows maybe he makes a wider call than I would think.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah I think in game I was just really thrown off by his river check raise as it almost NEVER happens to me in my games. I mean literally maybe once or twice a month and I play 40 hours a week.

    That said, I definitely should be ripping it in on the river. I made a mistake erring on the side of caution ( not my norm lol).

    When you say 1 combo of 1010 are you discounting the actual 3 he could have? Because I was thinking there were 6 combos of hands that beat me versus like 4-5 that call a shove that I beat (AK, AQ, AJ, A4, A5 clubs), which is why I didn't shove the remaining stack. (Yes, I could discount the 77 to like 1.5 combos as some wouldn't get here).

    Like I said, I do think in retrospect as played I need to get it in and put all his flushes in a terrible spot and who knows maybe he makes a wider call than I would think.

    76s, 87s, 98s, QJs, KJs, KQs, AJs, AQs, AKs, what about gappers, 86s, 97s, J9s, A5s, A4s, A6s, A7s, A8s, A9s, about 18 combos of flushes.

    Full house is a max of 6 combos TT and 77, but as I said it's weird for someone to play TT and 77 in this fashion where they 3bet, cbet, then check call turn. Does not say TT at all to me. Discount both full houses to 1.5 and you have 18 to 3 ratio. Then again doesn't make sense for high flushes to check either.

    I think the main concern of the overall hand is just the turn play of trying to milk your opponent compared to trying to play for stacks. We're all guilty of this though. Just realize your small bets can induce things that were not expected. Had you made big bets he is unlikely to check raise.

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