Raising the river vs blocker bets

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
8 handed $1-$2-$3
Sb V1 - semi tight passive
BB v2 - little unknown but over a small sample would say OMC

Table dynamics have been friendly with several players checking down against each other and little to no bluffing that I've saw.

2 folds
Hj Hero ($500) :As :Js opens $12
Co folds
Btn folds
Sb ($300) calls $12
BB ($175) calls $12

Flop ($37) :9c :8s :2s
Check x3

Turn ($37) :9c :8s :2s :7c
Sb ($288) bets $25
BB ($163) calls $25
Hero ($488) calls $25

River ($112) :9c :8s :2s :7c :4c
SB ($263) bets $35
BB ($148) calls $35
Hero ($463) raises to $125

Thoughts on flop play: here I flop a flush draw, but it's a better board for callers range, especially on future run outs. I'll mix in checking some over pairs back that have a spade here a decent amount of the time. I'm not of the mindset that I need to bet all my flush draws, more focused on board texture and RvR hence my check.

Thoughts on turn play: similar to the flop this is a great card for their range, but my odds with a gutter + nfd and possibly ace being good as well is too good to consider folding; calling 25 to win 87 about 3.5 : 1 (22%)

Thoughts on river: here given the table dynamics I don't expect SB to bet his flush draws on the turn, so when the flush completes on the river and he bets about 1\3 pot I'm immediately thinking 2 pair, sets, & straights. BB at first it took me a second, but ruled out a flush from his range given he only called and lot of the low flushes are blocked. Here I don't block any flushes with my hand, but given I checked flop and over called turn, I could have quite a few flushes here from the Hj position.

This is a line that looks really nutted that you don't see people take as a bluff. Downside is I'm offering villains 3:1 on the river. Upside is it looks like a value bet.

Comments

  • VegaVega Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    In my games, even people who seem decent call with almost anything in the blinds against a standard raise- hands like T8, A2, etc.

    I don't have much to add to this hand, but I will say I like your river raise. This is something I am trying to get better at in my game - finding good spots to bluff. So I enjoy seeing a post like this to try to better my game.

    Lastly, I am new here (a couple of days), but I have noticed you posting a lot. Congrats on your 5000th post, and I can't wait to read more of your content.
  • Aran Whelan ByrneAran Whelan Byrne Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    I like the flop action. As you pointed out that hits the calling range hard and checking back nut flush draws can be very effective at lower stakes.

    River raise is interesting but I the game type explained (low stakes with passive players) they tend to find it hard to call. I think a bigger bet size will give you a better chance of getting this true and allow you to maximize value in other spots. Maybe $150-$160?

    Turn is a non decision. Just call.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Any thought to raising the turn?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    Amy thought to c-betting flop?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Any thought to raising the turn?

    I rep very little and would have to barrel all rivers... Stacks are a bit too shallow. Figures to be a better card for them then me. I can have some J10s and 77, but not much else.
    Red wrote: »
    Amy thought to c-betting flop?

    Was playing the future run out angle favoring callers range. More likely to bet a hand like QcTc then AsJs here due to sdv.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    Austin wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Amy thought to c-betting flop?

    Was playing the future run out angle favoring callers range. More likely to bet a hand like QcTc then AsJs here due to sdv.

    I'm not sure I understand your argument "future run out angle" ? (Not sure it's because of language - English still isn't my mother language - or the relevance of the argument itself)

    Also, I'm not sure that AJ has much SDV, except against other broadways, which are just a part of Villains' ranges.

    Also if you're not c-betting nut FD, aren't you c-betting too much "value" hands ? I use many FD (esp. nut FD) to balance my strong holding by semi-bluffing them.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,936 -
    Red wrote: »
    Also if you're not c-betting nut FD, aren't you c-betting too much "value" hands ? I use many FD (esp. nut FD) to balance my strong holding by semi-bluffing them.

    I go the other way.

    NFD can win at SD unimproved and has increased IO value when hitting either the flush or the Ace and getting value from second-best.

    Non-NFD has less-no opportunity to win at SD unimproved and has decreased IO value when hitting. This benefits more from fold equity.
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Any thought to raising the turn?

    I rep very little and would have to barrel all rivers... Stacks are a bit too shallow. Figures to be a better card for them then me. I can have some J10s and 77, but not much else.

    I'm not so sure. Let's tease this out a little as a thought experiment.

    First, what don't you have? Probably overpairs (likely would have raised pre-flop; almost certainly wouldn't be raising on the turn if you somehow got there as played). Probably not, say, 33-55 (I'm not sure how you stay in on the flop or why you'd be raising here). Probably not pure bluffs, say KQh (I'm not sure how you even got here nor why you'd be raising).

    That leaves, IMO, three real possibilities. One is something like T9h. But, would you really be raising here given the action, given the wet board, and given that you didn't raise the flop? Not sure how likely that is.

    You could have a monster, like JT or a set. That makes sense. Or maybe you have, say, ATc, picking up lots of equity. Those are the only realistic hands that make sense to raise, right?

    Obviously, if everyone folds, then great.

    If not, then you have TONS of river cards to be. Any club. Given your hand, any spade :). Most cards that complete the four-card straight. Almost any other card below a nine.

    Seems like your range were you to raise the turn is either a monster hand or a monster (or combo) draw. That allows you to rep a TON on the river...

    Again, just thinking out loud here since the thought of a turn raise was really nagging at me.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Any thought to raising the turn?

    I rep very little and would have to barrel all rivers... Stacks are a bit too shallow. Figures to be a better card for them then me. I can have some J10s and 77, but not much else.

    I'm not so sure. Let's tease this out a little as a thought experiment.

    First, what don't you have? Probably overpairs (likely would have raised pre-flop; almost certainly wouldn't be raising on the turn if you somehow got there as played). Probably not, say, 33-55 (I'm not sure how you stay in on the flop or why you'd be raising here). Probably not pure bluffs, say KQh (I'm not sure how you even got here nor why you'd be raising).

    That leaves, IMO, three real possibilities. One is something like T9h. But, would you really be raising here given the action, given the wet board, and given that you didn't raise the flop? Not sure how likely that is.

    You could have a monster, like JT or a set. That makes sense. Or maybe you have, say, ATc, picking up lots of equity. Those are the only realistic hands that make sense to raise, right?

    Obviously, if everyone folds, then great.

    If not, then you have TONS of river cards to be. Any club. Given your hand, any spade :). Most cards that complete the four-card straight. Almost any other card below a nine.

    Seems like your range were you to raise the turn is either a monster hand or a monster (or combo) draw. That allows you to rep a TON on the river...

    Again, just thinking out loud here since the thought of a turn raise was really nagging at me.

    What happens when I raise turn and they shove?

    Also some straights that I can "rep" hits the callers range right? So ill just be owning myself quite frequently. Also notice BB stack, he can easily call off or raise all in with a pair + sd which is still ahead of me, but would be forced to call off given the odds after a raise.

    Usually on these textures I keep my range to combo draws, usually not ace high, & 2 pair+. One pair hands inlcuding over pairs I play very slow due to equity vs callers range. Yes, I take a lot of "bad beats" but it's not worth coin flipping or being way behind.

    There was a hand I rememeber about a year ago that I posted that really taught me this lesson. Was something like Hero has AJc on JdTd7c board. Depsite having TPTK you don't want to raise because vs a 3bet shove your basically like 51% ahead or like 25% dog.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Split, ha, is right. When you split the way you play your flush draws, the naked nut flush draw plays best over all streets and doesnt need to bet. The argument for betting this one is that it is more than a naked flush draw bwcause it has two overs and a blocker to the straight, which may come into play either offensively or defensively. It cwrtainly mattwrs on this river.

    The issue in this hand is that while when playing it is balanced by slow played sdv, we are three way and the river is peculair. Without a club in your hand, your success rate should go down.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sb folded :9S: :7S: and BB folded A9.

    I was thinking about "not having a club blocker" when I played the hand, but at the same time there are not many hands with a club blocker that get to this river besides :AC: :TS: .. It's hard to have significant equity and blockers.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,688 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, I mean you are pulling the trigger for multiple reasons beyond a blocker, and your protected range through your flop play helps out a lot. Good job.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Yeah, I mean you are pulling the trigger for multiple reasons beyond a blocker, and your protected range through your flop play helps out a lot. Good job.

    I was thinking if I were in their shoes, and I do this some times to balance my bets and people freak out. "Why did you bet so small?" "He must have quads you see the way he played his flush earlier?" Just comments that I smile at because they think im a fish who doesn't know how to bet.

    What I mean is, if I knew they had a hand like 2 pair here and would fold to a raise why would I bet big with my flush? I would go bigger with my bluffs say $125-$160 and then with my flush if I thought they were weak, I would raise to like $75-$90 hoping they call getting a good price.

    Another example
    Utg raises :As :Ac to $15
    2 callers from MP

    Flop ($45) :8H: :7H: :3C:
    Utg bets $30
    LJ folds
    Hj calls
    Turn ($105) :3S:
    Utg bets $65
    hj calls again
    River ($235) :QH:
    Utg ($190) checks
    Hj ($190) ???

    Whats the appropriate bet size? Many people shove all in here because it's lets than a PsB, but you played your hand like a draw and its pretty face up even to a bad player.

    A) all in $190
    B) $176 (75%)
    C) $155 (66%)
    D) $117 (50%)
    E) $77 (33%)
    F) $59 (25%)

    If villain does have a fd on the turn he is calling $65 to win $170 getting 2.6 :1 (27%) and only has about 18%, so how much does HJ need to make on the river to show a profit by calling turn? HJ actually needs about 5:1 on the turn so if my math is right he needs to make 2.4 x $65 or $156 on the river. Facing a 2\3 pot bet on turn means you need to make 2\3 on the river. Would help if stacks were deeper. ... Guess all the T9s as well as flushes should bet about 2\3 for bluffs \ value....where C is the correct math answer I usually go with E being more likely they call 1\3.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    sb folded :9S: :7S: and BB folded A9.

    I was thinking about "not having a club blocker" when I played the hand, but at the same time there are not many hands with a club blocker that get to this river besides :AC: :TS: .. It's hard to have significant equity and blockers.

    SB folded 9s7s ? Erk! You really have a serious tight image if 2nd top 2P fold here. Or I'm a bit of a station in such situation...
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    sb folded :9S: :7S: and BB folded A9.

    I was thinking about "not having a club blocker" when I played the hand, but at the same time there are not many hands with a club blocker that get to this river besides :AC: :TS: .. It's hard to have significant equity and blockers.

    SB folded 9s7s ? Erk! You really have a serious tight image if 2nd top 2P fold here. Or I'm a bit of a station in such situation...

    i don't think it's a bad fold. You might be a bit of a station lol.....calling $90 to win $307 which means I have to be raising with worse 22% of the time. I hardly have a bluffing range that high on this river over 2 players. 97s is likely bottom of his range besides flushes, straights, and sets.

    What worse hands do you think im raising with? That check back flop, call Turn, raise river after a bet and a call?
  • John GunnerJohn Gunner Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    I usually prefer doing a C-bet in this situation repping an over pair or top pair. But I wont bet big enough so I can get the flush draws stay because ill give them good pot odds and all other stragglers to fold (so they dont hit something weird like 2 small pairs, gutters or trips unless they have 2 spades) . if I hit the flush on any street I will check to let the lower flush lead out, then i can call and re raise on the river. If the Spade dont hit. Then ill continue C-betting the turn still giving good pot odds for the flush draws. If I miss the flush on the river, Ill just continue representing top pair and all the flush draws will fold. Taking down the pot in the end.

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