Great read? or Bad call?

Hunter GriffinHunter Griffin Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
50 player live tourney. Blinds (800/1600). I have been very tight and sticking to my range. At this point it is 1 1/2 - 2 hrs into tournament. I have played 3 hands leading up to this point. Have not lost a hand. The villain is relatively new to the table.

HAND: :Kd :Qh

Folded to Hero (BTN)
Hero Raises to 2BB (3200)
Villain (SB) calls

FLOP: :3d :4d :Kh

Villain Checks
Hero bets 4.5 BB
Villain calls

TURN: :Ad

Villain goes ALL IN (13k)
(after 3min) Hero calls 13k ALL IN w/ 12k remaining in stack.
Villain: :8d :Kc

River: :As

Hero Wins

Personally I called due to his pot commitment on the flop. He had 20k ish remaining when the flop came out. Based on the fact that he has yet to see me play a single hand so far since I've been folding, If he was on flush draw or had an Ace he would have folded to my C-bet. If he had AK he would have reraised me either PreFlop or OTF, or opened to me OTF. Therefore after a few minutes of thought I put him on TPBK

Answers

  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Mathematically the call on the flop could be justified with a flush draw. If he called with something like KJs or Q10s he'd have ~32% to hit the flush by the river. With that bet sizing you're giving him 33% pot odds. Do you think the difference of that percent would be the fold? Just curious, because I would've played a flush draw the exact way Villain did. If you definitely didn't think he had the flush then good call for sure tho. Only thing that would've beat you besides that would be AK or KK and if he wasn't 3betting you pre flop we could rule those out.
  • Hunter GriffinHunter Griffin Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    In a typical situation yes I agree I did give him the odds to call with a flush draw, but I also think that his ICM and SPR would suggest otherwise if he was on a flush draw seeing as how he only had 13k behind him after the 4.5BB call which would leave him with <10BB.

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