Good/bad play set mining here?

Kyle BabcockKyle Babcock Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
Some background on the game. 5/5 where the effective stack in this hand was about 1200. There is a whale at our game who is drunk and rebuying 1000 at a time, already punted off about 2k, mostly to me (running hot, calling some his bluffs as well). He will open raise to $75+ with hands like QJo, AJo, 22, even T3s for a shown bluff. He will also call down/lead 3 streets with stuff like 2nd pair and A high.

So I get 22 UTG, decide to just limp, assuming well see a big raise. Whale opens to 85, MP and BTN call. I wasn't getting quite 20-1, but around 12-1 and 4 ways seemed good enough to me? I call, missed flop and folded.

This is a pretty straightforward call right? Especially knowing the loose opener will stack off with either a bluff or any 2nd pair and better?

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes. 100%.

    The reason that players usually look for around 20-1 to call to set mine is, in large part, to account for the times that you hit your set but don't get paid off. Given the profile of this player, he'll pay you off. And you only need to calculate your odds for flopping a set -- not even seeing all 5 cards -- to still make it profitable.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭
    If you like high variance games you could even raise (with no intention to fold).
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 169 ✭✭
    Yes. 100%.

    The reason that players usually look for around 20-1 to call to set mine is, in large part, to account for the times that you hit your set but don't get paid off.

    Have you ever lost with a flopped set? It's almost always a train wreck since you're going full speed to get it in and the beats come with poisoned river cards.

    Not getting paid off is but a tiny part of that 20-1 calculus.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes. 100%.

    The reason that players usually look for around 20-1 to call to set mine is, in large part, to account for the times that you hit your set but don't get paid off.

    Have you ever lost with a flopped set? It's almost always a train wreck since you're going full speed to get it in and the beats come with poisoned river cards.

    Not getting paid off is but a tiny part of that 20-1 calculus.

    Of course I've lost with a flopped set! :) That's all built in to the 20-1 calculus. When you eliminate the times that you don't get paid off (which is reasonable given the V here), that 20-1 drops quite a bit and the odds in this hand far exceed the lower ratio.
  • Kyle BabcockKyle Babcock Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    Thanks guys. Yeah @moishetreats it was a crazy game with everyone at the table opening their ranges to play hands with the guy. Made for good action, even against normally solid players.
  • John GunnerJohn Gunner Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Yes. 100%.

    The reason that players usually look for around 20-1 to call to set mine is, in large part, to account for the times that you hit your set but don't get paid off.

    Have you ever lost with a flopped set? It's almost always a train wreck since you're going full speed to get it in and the beats come with poisoned river cards.

    Not getting paid off is but a tiny part of that 20-1 calculus.

    Of course I've lost with a flopped set! :) That's all built in to the 20-1 calculus. When you eliminate the times that you don't get paid off (which is reasonable given the V here), that 20-1 drops quite a bit and the odds in this hand far exceed the lower ratio.

    I agree that it was a good call considering the texture of the table and the implied odds you get if ever you hit your set.

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