Ugly turn with AA facing a donk bet

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 2018 in Live Poker Hands


$600 effective $1\$2
Hj ($1000) opens $10
Co ($250) calls $10
Hero ($600) :Ah :Ac 3bet to $40
Hj calls
Co calls
Flop ($120) :Ks :Ts :4H:
Hj check
Co check
Hero ($560) bets $90
Hj thinks 45 seconds and calls
Co folds
Turn ($300) :Ks :Ts :4H: :Js
HJ snap bets $200
Hero ($470) call-fold-raise? Why?

Villain profile
Hj older guy but has a bet sizing tell where he would raise to say $15 as his open with stronger hands. When he makes it $10 he is middle to bottom of his opening range.

Ugly turn with AA facing a donk bet

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Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fold
    I voted fold based on the range I gave him below. As I listened to the video and the line taken, I think it's consistent with some 2 pairs, sets, straights, low flushes, etc which has us crushed. During my range assessment after I included 2 combos of 44, 2 combos of TT, threw in some bluffs such as AsTx, all KQ, QsTx, small flushes, nut flushes, but not AsQs for obvious reasons or Qs9s for obvious reasons.

    2ojy70pcdffg.png

    What do you think of my given range?
    Hero is 41% against this range.
    8min 54 seconds of the video
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    Fold
    @Austin Thanks for posting this. HH analysis is something I am trying to do more of. A lot of posters seem to think its the bread and butter for getting better. For some reason I have avoided them in in the past.

    Questions - which program is that you are posting a screen shot in? With the OESD on the board why didn't you assign Q9o to him? Was it because of the post-flop action? Did villain make a mistake with the call and just get lucky on the turn?

    This hand seems like a very common scenario and I am trying to make sense of the line of correct/incorrect play.

    Thanks
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fold
    GGECKO wrote: »
    @Austin Thanks for posting this. HH analysis is something I am trying to do more of. A lot of posters seem to think its the bread and butter for getting better. For some reason I have avoided them in in the past.

    Questions - which program is that you are posting a screen shot in? With the OESD on the board why didn't you assign Q9o to him? Was it because of the post-flop action? Did villain make a mistake with the call and just get lucky on the turn?

    This hand seems like a very common scenario and I am trying to make sense of the line of correct/incorrect play.

    Thanks

    Even for a "loose player" Q9o in a 3bet pot is pretty wide. Despite actually having that hand I think its less realistic. I did assign Q9s though as loose players love suited cards.

    I agree HH you can learn a lot from when analyze by range and not just hand. Some players will say HH is a waste of time because they have their strategy in place and as long as they didn't deviate then the play is fine.

    Split talks about it in his 1% series as well. Pick a couple of hands from your recent session and see if your line fits the model. It's still a HH, but a more in depth one. Once you get good at it, it doesn't take too long to do.

    The screen shot I posted is pokercruncher, which I use on my phone. I actually don't have flopzilla, but understand the basics enough to break down the equity and combos. I feel typing them up as I do on many of these post helps me retain the info a bit more. I should still have flopzilla though.

    I posted this poll because of the "face" Bart made when the hero said fold. I thought I was missing something because I thought it was a fold as well. Apparently Bart thinks it's an easy call down, but I don't see low stake players bluffing in this spot very much. Similar to call flop, call Turn, donk river... Its usually nutted..compared to call 3bet, call flop, donk turn. Usually kinda nutted. I think I can take out some or most nut flushes, but still equity isn't great.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,754 ✭✭✭✭
    Call
    I watched the video AFTER voting
    Austin wrote: »
    I voted fold based on the range I gave him below. As I listened to the video and the line taken, I think it's consistent with some 2 pairs, sets, straights, low flushes, etc which has us crushed. During my range assessment after I included 2 combos of 44, 2 combos of TT, threw in some bluffs such as AsTx, all KQ, QsTx, small flushes, nut flushes, but not AsQs for obvious reasons or Qs9s for obvious reasons.

    2ojy70pcdffg.png

    What do you think of my given range?
    Hero is 41% against this range.
    8min 54 seconds of the video

    How can you fold 41% equity ?

    I agree with Bart Hanson (the guy commenting the video) - and was also shocked to see I'm the only one calling and 6 propose to fold (at the moment at least).

    So first I wouldn't put a Villain on such a loose range. I don't see hands like Q9s, QTo or A7s calling my 3bet - except after I started to 3bet often and they widen their calling range. So I don't disagree per se, but we would need more info about V and table dynamic.

    Because of my range assignation - I'd give V few AXs - and :JS: blocking many combos for a flush (AJs, QJs, JTs, maybe J9s?), I don't think V has a flush. Also he tank on flop, which should not the case with a nut FD.
    Straights? AQ is possible, but I don't see Q9. And bad player will fear the river if we give action.
    So, there are few hands we are drawing dead.

    Furthermore: 2P and sets (mostly JJ) are possible, but I don't think Villain bet them for value. That would be a bad move as it's kinda turning their hand into a bluff or to see what they are at (seen played by bad Villains tho). Hands we could outplay on river.
    And - as said Bart too - we still have outs against turned 2P.

    Finally, I don't think "insta bet" is often for value - IMHO it's often a "It's a spade, let's try to scare him and take the pot down before it turns into too much heat for my hand". (But this is also my experience as LAG-ish : being more aggro = more often bad Villains try to steal the pot than against a TAG)
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fold
    @red seems like you give a tighter range preflop, which I agree with in general for most people, but following the profile of a loose player I gave a loose range. Can tighten it up some, but after seeing the spoiler I should potentially widen the range.

    Hero invested $130 out of his $600 stack (21%). On the turn he has to make a decision if he is playing for stacks or not. Yes, he has 41% equity, but is 41% equity worth risking the other 79% of your stack?

    Look at it this way, if villain shoved turn are you folding? Pot odds are $300 pot + $470 shove effective, so $470 to win $770 or 1.63 :1 or (38% equity). Very marginal spot and we have to assume a pretty wide range for hero to have this 41%.

    I went ahead and tightened up villains range removing most flushes. To the below range.
    td7pi71nzau4.png

    Hero's equity is 47% if I give villain a bunch of AJ, KQ, QJ hands. This is removing bottom end straights, all nut flushes, and some two pair such as K10 removed as well. Basically small flushes, KJ, J10, and bluffs for villain.

    Despite the increase in equity I don't see this as a call still. Just not enough invested to stack of like 300bb deep.

    I wonder is Bart changes his choice if the game was $10\$20 instead of $1\$2.

    Other words
    Turn ($3,000) :Ks :Ts :4h :JS:
    Villain all in $4700
    Hero :Ac :AH:

    I see most players folding here.

    Thanks for taking opposing side. Made me analyze the hand again.

  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    Fold
    Austin wrote: »
    Even for a "loose player" Q9o in a 3bet pot is pretty wide. Despite actually having that hand I think its less realistic. I did assign Q9s though as loose players love suited cards.
    I think you are right about it.I was assigning it once he was willing to get stacks in, as it seemed a likely candidate for a shove.
    Austin wrote: »
    I agree HH you can learn a lot from when analyze by range and not just hand. Some players will say HH is a waste of time because they have their strategy in place and as long as they didn't deviate then the play is fine.

    Split talks about it in his 1% series as well. Pick a couple of hands from your recent session and see if your line fits the model. It's still a HH, but a more in depth one. Once you get good at it, it doesn't take too long to do.
    Analysis by range is a bit daunting at first, at least it was for me. I'm coming to realize it's invaluable when analyzing spots. The first couple of times are slow and painful but after a few, I agree they get easier. When you mean the "model" are you referring to the strategy outlined in the 1%? I don't have that book yet...figured I would get to it when I finished with CORE.
    Austin wrote: »
    The screen shot I posted is pokercruncher, which I use on my phone. I actually don't have flopzilla, but understand the basics enough to break down the equity and combos. I feel typing them up as I do on many of these post helps me retain the info a bit more. I should still have flopzilla though.
    Downloaded
    Austin wrote: »
    I posted this poll because of the "face" Bart made when the hero said fold. I thought I was missing something because I thought it was a fold as well. Apparently Bart thinks it's an easy call down, but I don't see low stake players bluffing in this spot very much. Similar to call flop, call Turn, donk river... Its usually nutted..compared to call 3bet, call flop, donk turn. Usually kinda nutted. I think I can take out some or most nut flushes, but still equity isn't great.
    Completely agree here. Maybe at the higher stakes, there would be a ballsy bluff here. For hero to call given villain's show of strength and potential hands that beat us, for me it was an easy fold playing for stacks. Although I have opened my game up a bit from being nitty, I think Ed's advice in The Course applies here.

  • Aran Whelan ByrneAran Whelan Byrne Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    Fold
    I voted before viewing the video and the key point to my decision is the description of the villain. He's never doing this without having one pair beat.

    If the stacks were bigger turning your hand into a bluff is viable but as they aren't it's a annoying fold.

    After watching the video the hand villain has makes a lot of sense.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,486 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Fold
    @GGECKO are you familiar with counting combos? After watching splitsuit video on combos off youtube, it really helped me with range analsysis.

    Also in terms of 1% as James says "its not be all end all." Not some magic bullet to beat all the games. Some of it is great advice, some of it is out dated. Remember the book came out 4 years ago. I think James does a good job in the series overall, and I learned a thing or two from the series, but I disagree with some of the content, which has a disclaimer in the bad, good, and non-event video.

    After you finish core I would just look into getting pro and watch all the series. Between old content and new content even if you just do one month for $50 its a great deal.

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