$1/$3: Pair+NFD Line?

SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,986 -
Played a session of $1/$3 this weekend and this spot came up.

Hero: 30s, beard, boring TAG style thus far as the table has been pretty loose preflop and stacks are not especially deep.
V: 40s, buys in for $100 at a time, can get oddly inelastic preflop and is conservative for all-in pots postflop. Doubled up within the last orbit with a set.

V ($225) limps in MP1
MP2 ($400) limps behind
Hero ($covers) raises to $30 in the CO
:Kh :Jh
...
V calls
MP2 folds

Flop ($67): :Ah :Js :4h

V leads $25
Hero calls

(He had lead two other times in the session, both times with the normal "I has top pair and zero idea how to play it" mentality. He could lead 44 this way, and I massively discount AA as he did have a PFR. JJ...not sure)

Turn ($117): :8c

V bets $25
Hero ???

V has $170 left after making this bet.

Options:
1. Raise here
2. Call here and play out rivers. If he has dinky Ax, I suspect his river sizing will be <$50. If he has a big hand, I suspect his river sizing will be $50+.

What say you?
Tagged:

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    V: 40s, buys in for $100 at a time, can get oddly inelastic preflop and is conservative for all-in pots postflop. Doubled up within the last orbit with a set.

    1) Does V remain "oddly inelastic" after he has doubled up, or is this only while he's playing his $100 short-stack buy-in?

    If he remains inelastic, then the standard raise either on the flop or on the turn loses its efficacy since a semi-bluff requires reasonable fold equity to be worthwhile.

    If V tends to fold more once he has doubled up to protect the stack, then I'd suggest aggression somewhere during the hand.

    SplitSuit wrote: »
    (He had lead two other times in the session, both times with the normal "I has top pair and zero idea how to play it" mentality. He could lead 44 this way, and I massively discount AA as he did have a PFR. JJ...not sure)

    2) Is V really limited to top-pair or more when he donks?

    If so, then there is likely little or no fold equity. If not, then aggression is called for somewhere during the hand.




  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,021 -
    I hate these. You're basically getting direct odds to call, so that can't be badly wrong, plus if you miss you might have enough ammo to do something cunning on the end. But every bone in my body wants to raise a turn "same bet." That said my turn raises get more respect than yours.

    Hmmm. I'm gonna go for call because I think we're just deep enough he's gonna make another piddly bet on the end and I wanna win that too by shoving all rivers.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    (I'd often already raise flop (great equity, range advantage, and I bully those who don't respect my PFR haha), but considering stack size, calling with most if not the whole range seems ok.)

    Once on turn:
    - considering we have :KH: :JH: (blocking FD and combo FD), plus his profile ("lead with lost TP kind of hand), this weights his hand toward a made hand.
    -making the same bet scream a medium hand. For a made hand, it could be something we should be able to easily (and happily) fold like A9-AT ? AQo ? Some will play monster like that (aka 44), but not that many people play it (badly) like that - so I discount 44.
    - Which means that our 2nd pair has very little SDV and we have to raise at a point to win if we don't improve.
    - finally, if we call, there will be a pot left (170$ eff. stack for 167$ pot), so if Villain bet again - even 25$, it's not impossible he calls (even when we shove) because he feels already too much in (if he "same bets" against 25$, he has then to call 145$ to our shove to possibly win 507$). So I see little FE on river because of eff. stack size.

    Considering our hand equity - even against 44 -, our range and the more limited than normal river FE, I think it's a great spot to raise the turn.

    I don't think calling turn is bad per se, but it's really passive when we have many reason to raise (and hard to get paid if we hit). And raising is good for our aggro image.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    By the Line the opponent took, it looks like a weak Ax or a King like KT. I probably would call because he probably doesnt fold an ace to a shove.

    Cause he bets small and the board is drawy, I think we can discount two pairs like J4 or AJ. Especially with KJ, we block already one Jack which means that there are only 6 combos of each two pair left.

    When he had a set, he might as well shove the turn or flop since it is likely you can call it of --> A lot of Ax hands in your Isolation range.

    He can also bet Jx since he bets small to protect from a flush draw.

    Assumed range:

    A9s-ATs,A5s-A7s,K9s-KJs,K5s-K7s,QJs,J9s+,A9o-ATo,A5o-A7o,K9o-KJo,K6o-K7o,QJo,J9o+

    We have 66% equity vs such a range, so it would be even a value jam.

    Raizing small can also be value cause he can call with weaker hands and you could probably profitably call off an all in from his side.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for posting this HH @SplitSuit glad to see you posting as well as @Christian Soto @Faustovaldez123 @Doug Hull and many others.

    1) If stacks are shallow I don't really like the 10bb ($30) raise preflop, despite villains being inelastic preflop and more tight postflop. I want to leave more room postflop. Hero created an SPR of around 3, which is ok for his hand, but I think it's just higher variance bloating the pot this much preflop. I was thinking of betting around $20 here preflop.

    2) on the flop are you also flatting JJ, AA, AQ-AK? Board is not crazy dynamic or anything and you block hearts, but I think you should be raising with your range advantage. If you had AK here and a T or Q fell on the turn, neither player would be happy to really see those cards. There is already $92 in the pot (30bb), I don't think we need to raise large, may be something like $70 (under 3x). Villain will likely flat call unless he has A4 or 44. Turn would be ($207) with $125 left. At this point I am still shipping it in going with the read of villain being tight postflop.

    3) as played once we flat call the flop, I don't see a reason to raise the turn. We have SDV. Against a donk betting range we can be ahead here some of the time. Turn doesn't change much, so if villain thought he was ahead on the flop, he is still ahead on the turn. To me your not repping much on the turn by raising. You are capping your range at 1 pair or fd on the flop, then pushing your equity trying to get a bad player to fold the turn. If the turn was another face card, K, Q, J, T, (not an ace), I would be more in favor of raising. One side you pick up equity, villain might as well, but now you can rep more two pairs, sets, and straights vs villain. He is still likely capped at Ax, Jx, or weak fd.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 283 ✭✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    and is conservative for all-in pots postflop.

    This, combined with the "boring TAG style" image and that ultra weak/scared $25 bet makes me lean heavily toward a raise. See if you can blow him off AT. If not, see if you can catch a heart.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 768 ✭✭✭
    Personally, I go up to SPR of 3 as my commitment level. it's a little under 3 going to the flop and under 2 when villain donks

    I'm committed here and do not mind playing for stacks in this spot. So I want to raise the flop. My sizing is based on what is left for the turn. Here , because of short stack, any raise means there won't be a decent sized bet left for the turn so I would go all in on the flop

    I see value in putting maximum pressure on that part of villain's range where he is ahead and can find a fold.

    I don't know exactly what that is but I'm damn sure going to find out! :)
  • Rich57Rich57 Red Chipper Posts: 97 ✭✭
    If I count correctly, V has 145 left after the turn bet - automatic shove
  • Lachlan versluisLachlan versluis Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    edited August 2018
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    Played a session of $1/$3 this weekend and this spot came up.

    Hero: 30s, beard, boring TAG style thus far as the table has been pretty loose preflop and stacks are not especially deep.
    V: 40s, buys in for $100 at a time, can get oddly inelastic preflop and is conservative for all-in pots postflop. Doubled up within the last orbit with a set.

    V ($225) limps in MP1
    MP2 ($400) limps behind
    Hero ($covers) raises to $30 in the CO
    :Kh :Jh
    ...
    V calls
    MP2 folds

    Flop ($67): :Ah :Js :4h

    V leads $25
    Hero calls

    (He had lead two other times in the session, both times with the normal "I has top pair and zero idea how to play it" mentality. He could lead 44 this way, and I massively discount AA as he did have a PFR. JJ...not sure)

    Turn ($117): :8c

    V bets $25
    Hero ???

    V has $170 left after making this bet.

    Options:
    1. Raise here
    2. Call here and play out rivers. If he has dinky Ax, I suspect his river sizing will be <$50. If he has a big hand, I suspect his river sizing will be $50+.

    What say you?

    For what it's worth; I'm in favour of raising the flop too. You've flopped the second nut flush draw, have massive range advantage and you're playing against a nit postflop. I think he's betting his raggy ace/middling broadway cards/some suited connectors i,e K10, Q10, J10, J9, QJ, (do people really limp jacks MP?) However, if you smack him on the flop, hes calling all of his aces, and some of his SC/suited broadways but typically checking the turn unless he improves, where you can jam/raise and really try to sell AQ, AJ, AK, JJ etc or check back looking for the other heart. If he's got 44/A4 he's probably jamming the flop to your re raise so worst case, you find out where you are and even then you've got great equity on the flop.

    Of course, raising the flop isn't an option in this question, so I'll go with 2. With V only having ~pot behind, he's much more incentivised to shove light/shove in general when facing a reraise. Say you raise to ~80 on the turn, if he calls he has 90 behind with a pot of 277. Doesn't have alot of options on the river and I would expect him to know that, so raising the turn is either stacking off, or your denying him an opportunity to bluff again/bet his weak A which you could jam over on the river, especially with a sizing tell to help lead the way.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,986 -
    Austin wrote: »
    Thanks for posting this HH @SplitSuit glad to see you posting as well as @Christian Soto @Faustovaldez123 @Doug Hull and many others.

    Cheers!
    Austin wrote: »
    1) If stacks are shallow I don't really like the 10bb ($30) raise preflop, despite villains being inelastic preflop and more tight postflop. I want to leave more room postflop. Hero created an SPR of around 3, which is ok for his hand, but I think it's just higher variance bloating the pot this much preflop. I was thinking of betting around $20 here preflop.

    If I go smaller (say $22), I think it lowers any FE from V and then always gets continuance from MP. I'd trade the slightly worse SPR in a HU pot for the MW pot.
    Austin wrote: »
    2) on the flop are you also flatting JJ, AA, AQ-AK? Board is not crazy dynamic or anything and you block hearts, but I think you should be raising with your range advantage. If you had AK here and a T or Q fell on the turn, neither player would be happy to really see those cards. There is already $92 in the pot (30bb), I don't think we need to raise large, may be something like $70 (under 3x). Villain will likely flat call unless he has A4 or 44. Turn would be ($207) with $125 left. At this point I am still shipping it in going with the read of villain being tight postflop.

    I'm not overly concerned about perfect range construction against this kind of player. My focus is FE and IO. I could see V folding Ax less to a flop raise than a turn/river raise fwiw.
    Austin wrote: »
    3) as played once we flat call the flop, I don't see a reason to raise the turn. We have SDV. Against a donk betting range we can be ahead here some of the time. Turn doesn't change much, so if villain thought he was ahead on the flop, he is still ahead on the turn. To me your not repping much on the turn by raising. You are capping your range at 1 pair or fd on the flop, then pushing your equity trying to get a bad player to fold the turn. If the turn was another face card, K, Q, J, T, (not an ace), I would be more in favor of raising. One side you pick up equity, villain might as well, but now you can rep more two pairs, sets, and straights vs villain. He is still likely capped at Ax, Jx, or weak fd.

    Again, I'm not worried about how capped I am against this player.

    Given the bold point, we have mild SDV if we assume V is firing hearts/JT kind of hands (which I think is ambitious given the player type)
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,986 -
    Rich57 wrote: »
    If I count correctly, V has 145 left after the turn bet - automatic shove

    Because you think V is folding often? Because you think V is calling with some-many second best holdings? Expand.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm not overly concerned about perfect range construction against this kind of player. My focus is FE and IO. I could see V folding Ax less to a flop raise than a turn/river raise fwiw.

    @SplitSuit I see you are part of @Faustovaldez123 camp of applying pressure and hoping villain crumbles and throwing range out the window. This is no disrespect, just a deviation as Fausto puts it. I often pick hands outside the calling or raising range to make plays given such information and just play in formation. I think the flop is best spot for this where you can combine range and pressure. Curious how you combine FE together with IO when your only calling the flop. The turn raise is stronger in general if your bringing your whole range to the turn.

    Stack sizes seem a bit off....
    V ($225) limps in MP1 [EDIT V ($250)]
    MP2 ($400) limps behind
    Hero ($covers) raises to $30 in the CO
    :Kh :JH:
    V calls
    MP2 folds
    Flop ($67): :Ah :Js :4h
    V leads $25
    Hero calls
    Turn ($117): :8c
    V bets $25
    Hero ???
    V has $170 left after making this bet.

    V would have to had to start with $250 ($170 + $25 + $25 + $30).

    So if Hero shoves
    villain calls $170 to win $337 (about a PSB) [1.98 : 1 / 33.5%]
    or
    villain calls $145 to win $312 (about a PSB) [2.15 : 1 / 31.7%]
  • Rich57Rich57 Red Chipper Posts: 97 ✭✭
    Split Suit said: Because you think V is folding often? Because you think V is calling with some-many second best holdings? Expand.

    My reasoning is as follows:
    1. His weak bet on the turn of 25 (less than a quarter pot) indicates weakness. I would put his range at ATB, a weak A or a weak flush draw (although many weak players would bet a good hand this way being scared to make you fold). And yes, I can se him calling with quite a few weaker hands.
    2. Against a shove you need 2/3 folds, plus the weaker hands that he might continue with. This is where I would pressure.
    3. No other raise makes sense for you here. If you raise to 80, you only have 90 to shove so you are no in two bet territory.
    4. If you hit the flush he will never pay you off so now is the time.
    Just my two cents, feel free to rip my thinking apart
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,968 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Weak players very often bet flush draws in a blocking manner and don't fold aces. Combined with the price, calling and retaining equity against any hand makes this a clear call down so far. There are other hands to raise.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Weak players very often bet flush draws in a blocking manner and don't fold aces.

    That doesn't mean that all players who "bet flush draws in a blocking manner and don't fold aces" are weak.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,968 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    I hate these. You're basically getting direct odds to call, so that can't be badly wrong, plus if you miss you might have enough ammo to do something cunning on the end. But every bone in my body wants to raise a turn "same bet." That said my turn raises get more respect than yours.

    Hmmm. I'm gonna go for call because I think we're just deep enough he's gonna make another piddly bet on the end and I wanna win that too by shoving all rivers.

    This is exactly what I was thinking. In these spots where you have a super weak villain who has Ax a lot here you don't have that much FE. Yet. I would call again and see what he does on the river. Likely he'll check and you jam all rivers, or he'll bet another "same bet" and you can insta jam over his weakness and he has to fold his one pair hands. If he hangs on for dear life and calls off with Ax, so be it. I think this line is stronger against these opponents who will call jams with Ax on flop almost certainly, turn a little less and river MUCH less. You look really strong to this player type after call, call, shove.

    This is a spitting image of a spot I've worked on in my game. In the past I'd hyper agro these types of pots on the front end, because, well I have a pair and flush draw, but then after some thought I figured out I had much less FE than I realized, but by calling I was able to get there my fair share and bluff the river much more effectively (especially when it's not A high).

    Being that this player plays off a $100 stack I almost guarantee he either "same bet's" river or checks and you jam either way and he folds almost 100% of the time. Easy game.
  • joseph burseyjoseph bursey Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    In this spot vs described villain I am happy to just play fit or fold, I am just going to take the direct pot odds I am getting to draw to my flush, I think even if a river heart comes we are still likely to get a bet paid by some of Villians holdings. I am probably only betting the river when checked to if I have improved. Maybe shove bluff some rivers if villain makes some ridiculous 1/6th pot sized bet
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB DetroitRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭
    This type of player will not fold without help. Check raise the turn and shove the river would get that fold if SPR wasn't so small.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,968 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Weak players very often bet flush draws in a blocking manner and don't fold aces.

    That doesn't mean that all players who "bet flush draws in a blocking manner and don't fold aces" are weak.

    On the other hand, my conscience just won't let me let this one go.

    Seriously? Sounds like the pattern of a very weak player.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    edited August 2018
    @SplitSuit I am very curious what you elect to do in this spot, as this is an are of my game I think I've gotten much better at, which is to backload my aggression to river based on V's awful sizing. To be honest, I think this is a very easy hand to play and a great opportunity to print in position. Shoving turn is hugely profitable and calling turn and shoving river is also hugely profitable. As I stated above, I think flatting turn and shoving river is MOST profitable. This villain likely doesn't realize the size of the pot and you have no fear of him changing his "same bet" strategy to shoving pot on river. This ensures you will have room to shove with a lot of fold equity over almost any bet he makes on river.

    I would only shove turn if I think there's some chance he can take my play away by shoving river after I flat turn.

    My question: Isn't this actually a very easy spot where villain is making big mistakes in sizing (lazy betting) and almost certainly doesn't realize the SPR at all and will be folding way too much at some point in the hand whether we hit our 14-outter or not?

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