Bad beat or bad play? QQ

Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
Copenhagen Casino. Only cash table open playing 20-50dkk for simplicity we'll call it 2-5

Table is 7 handed with 4 regs who without colluding control the table and apply pressure to any new comer.

Players in hand:
Hero (utg+1) - stack 580.
Reg 1 (mp1) - nit stack over 1k
Reg 2 (mp2) - (stack over 1.2k) - TAG, applies a lot of pressure with premium holding
Reg 3 (button) - (stack over 2k) not as skilled as reg 1 but not afraid to apply pressure

Hero holds :Qh :Qd

Preflop
Hero (utg+1) standard raise to 20
Reg 1 (mp1) calls
Reg 2 (mp2)  3 bets to 90
Reg 3 (button) calls 90
Hero calls 90
Reg 1folds
Blinds fold

Pot 297

Flop
:Jc :7d :4s
Hero checks
Reg 2 checks
Reg 3 (button) bets 140
Hero calls 140
Reg 2 folds

Pot 577

Turn
:5h
Hero checks
Reg 3 bets 240
Hero shoves for 350
Reg 3 calls showing :7c :5c

Thought process for reg 3 turn bet - what is he representing?
- AA, KK would have 4 bet pre-flop
- sets - would have called preflop so unfortunate if he has it.
- 2 pair - unlikely as J7, 74, J4 def not in his 3 bet calling range (didn't consider 5-7)
- draw - possible - 10 9, 98, 56.
- top top - AJ very likely

In previous posts it's been pointed out that fear was getting in my way so I accepted sets were a risk, felt I was beating everything else, now was my only chance with smaller stack & shoved.

bad beat or bad play?
Should I have reraised flop?

Comments

  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    And to end the story... river was ace. And I said goodnight.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    1) I can see flat-calling pre-flop, but I'd strongly consider shoving it pre-flop. Did you?

    2) As played, on the flop, I'd be check-raising all day long. Reg2 is unlikely to check this flop after raising pre-flop if he has AA or KK. The only real hand to concern you is JJ; he might be slow-playing it. If so, then so be it. Reg3 could be fitting the profile and applying pressure. Yes, he also could have hit a set, but it seems like he might have 4bet with JJ pre-flop based on your description. Again, if he flopped an unlikely set, then so be it. YOU, however, are the most likely to have flopped a set. Even so, AJ might call you off when you shove. You're almost assuredly getting it all-in on any card but an A, K, or maybe J at this point anyway, and I think that your QQ is slightly disguised.

    Given players who like to use their stacks to apply pressure, 3bets pre-flop don't mean specifically that they have AA or KK. You're likely ahead both pre-flop and on the flop, so you should jump into the game of applying pressure. After all, there's a reason that they're the big stacks, right? Add to that the reality that, once you start pushing back, then they'll look to find other fish to bully around with their stack.
  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    1. I did consider shoving pre but didn't have the balls.

    2. Im trying to incorporate check raise after watching one of weasels videos and have used the move earlier in the game with succes. So for balance i thought i could check shove the turn.

    Should I then with my 580 stack size...
    - 4 bet pre flop to 300 (leaving 280 behind to shove a good flop) or just shove? Not quite sure I can do the latter
    - if call preflop then check-shove his 140 flop bet meaning V has to call off 350 into pot 927
  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    Thanks for the analysis @moishetreats - hope my description read better than last posts
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭
    Agree with @moishetreats both preflop and on the flop.
    I'd add that, on the flop, your stack size is rather small to the pot. You've to decide at this point if you want to play for stack or no - it's the leverage point.
    Because of that, I'm happily check-shoving at this point since PFR check (strongly capping his range) and because of pot size, BU could come with many JX.
    (Check/call with intention to play for stack later isn't the best plan against V3's profile i.e. not that aggro)
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    1. I did consider shoving pre but didn't have the balls.

    Self-awareness is good... gotta' grown 'em, though... :)

    2. Im trying to incorporate check raise after watching one of weasels videos and have used the move earlier in the game with succes. So for balance i thought i could check shove the turn.

    I hear you, but I wouldn't be overly concerned at this point. You only really need to worry about balance when other players are noticing a pattern of yours and have acted to counter it. If that's not happening, then no need to balance on your part.

    Should I then with my 580 stack size...
    - 4 bet pre flop to 300 (leaving 280 behind to shove a good flop) or just shove? Not quite sure I can do the latter

    Why can't you do the latter? If you 4bet to $300, then you're really all-in. If you want to have one street of playability, then you would need to 4bet to, say, $220, leaving $360 -- and fold equity -- behind. But you have to be prepared mentally to call a potential 5bet/all-in from V.

    - if call preflop then check-shove his 140 flop bet meaning V has to call off 350 into pot 927

    Correct. That means that V will call with a wider range, which is good. If you call the $140 bet, are you ever really folding on the turn? There aren't any big scare cards for you. Since you're getting it all in, I'd rather shove the flop and have V fold out his equity or potentially call when behind. If V flopped a set, then you're busting almost no matter what.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Reg 3 (button) - (stack over 2k) not as skilled as reg 1 but not afraid to apply pressure

    Reg 3 calls showing :7c :5C:

    You say reg 1 is "skilled" but also call him a nit. Nits imo are not skilled players. They are disciplined and patient. They just nut peddle praying on the weak or trying to cooler a reg.

    Reg 3 - seems like a really bad player. Who cold calls 75s?

    To me there are several different player profiles. Here are the basic ones I consider.

    There are good, bad, and pro for each one.

    Bad lag
    Good lag
    Pro lag

    Loose passive fish
    Straight forward fish
    Aggro fish

    Tight / weak tag
    Abc tag
    Pro tag

    Then there is one that is just PRO by itself who adapts to every hand situation in terms of exploits.


    I would say
    Reg 1 is probably correct for being a nit. Action goes $20+$20+$90+$90+$70+fold (70) ...there is $290 in the pot and $70 for the nit to call at 200 bb effective for his stack. He is getting over 4:1 and his calling range for $20(4bb) should be strong enough to make this call for his MP1 vs UTG+1 calling range.

    Reg 2 probably a boring tag. Squeeze maybe with a hand like AQ or AK and check folds flop 3 ways. Probably a bit ABC with his cbets mostly being value.

    Reg 3 - is a mix if loose / passive fish preflop and aggro fish postflop. I'm actually ok with him betting this flop as he has bdfd, bdsd, + 2nd pair. Good flop for his hand. I think he is a fish i.e "fun player" because of his cold call.

    Despite there being mostly regs at the table, if you were more competent in your game you could destroy these players. Going to be some variance sure, but I don't see any "PROs" at the table. Pay close attention and figure out how your going to exploit these players.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Preflop
    Hero (utg+1) standard raise to 20
    Reg 1 (mp1) calls
    Reg 2 (mp2) 3 bets to 90
    Reg 3 (button) calls 90
    Hero calls 90
    Reg 1folds
    Blinds fold

    There is $220 in the pot when it comes back around to you. You have $580 effective. What range do you think the tag is squeezing with? Regular 3bet is usually tighter than a squeeze. Maybe a regular 3bet has JJ+ AK+. Squeezing has maybe TT+ AQ+. Not to mention any Axs he tries to balance his range with.

    QQ (47%) vs JJ+ AK+ (53%). Now despite being slight underdog here there is roughly $110 in dead money + a chance they are sharing cards.

    QQ (55%) vs TT+ AQ+ (45%) again now your the favorite and as an added bonus there is $110 in dead money.

    Picking up 38% of your stack ($220) uncontested is really nice. Personally I prefer a shove here preflop, but could make a case for a smaller 4bet being you likely want the BTN to come a long for optimal EV. You lose the hand more often, but increases your win rate. Doesn't mean BTN will call though, because the tag could still 5bet and force btn out himself rather than flat call a 4bet.

    Overall usually JJ being the buttom of the range, with extra dead money and near 100bb you can shove in this spot all day long. Btn usually has a hand like 99-QQ, AQ, KQs, AK. Typical cold calling range.

    Post flop again as comments said above. Reg 2 capped his range you're way ahead of reg 3 range. Only real concern is JJ. Considering how many Jx he has if he is calling 75s. If you only give him suited broadway he has 12 combos of Jx. If you include off suite broadways he has 36 more combos. Easy jam spot.

    Problem you have is "You're not playing to win, you're playing not to lose."
  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    @Austin this feedback is worth the subscription fee to date by itself.

    To pick up on some of the points
    - I know I'm going to be playing the 4 stooges regularly so trying to mix up my play. But definitely need to be pushing back but also go back to (and trust the math). Which fits with your playing to win.

    - Pay close attention and figure out how your going to exploit these players.
    Are there a few things I should be specifically looking for and would you record them? I'm guessing 3bet range, c-bet %, bet sizing when they do and dont have it, bluff %

    - do you have a thought process (or is there a video) for working through possible combos? As im sure others feel the same, the process when under pressure would be useful

    - playing not to lose vs playing to win - I've strictly been a cash player but have signed up for small ball tournaments to increase pressure decisions and shoving situations.

    Thanks again
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are there a few things I should be specifically looking for and would you record them? I'm guessing 3bet range, c-bet %, bet sizing when they do and dont have it, bluff %

    This is all part of assigning ranges to the villains. If you were playing online against reg #3 on the BTN, I would write something like

    "C/C 75s btn, bet 1/2 pot on J74r when checked to."

    Getting a feel for how wide he cold calls is important.

    My note on you whether I am in the hand or not would be

    "does not 4 bet QQ vs a squeeze and a cold call."

    This information a lone is going to save me a ton of money the next time you 4 bet in this spot I can easily fold hands like AKo, QQ, JJ etc. Basically only stack off KK+ against your shove because your 4 bet range is like 2% or less.
    do you have a thought process (or is there a video) for working through possible combos? As im sure others feel the same, the process when under pressure would be useful

    How to count Combos


    Assigning a range



    Splitsuit has many more videos on youtube under pokerbank. I suggest watching as many as possible.

    if your a pro member this is a series of different videos on 3 betting that will help you assign some ranges to both 3 betting and calling. Also which ones to cbet etc.
    https://redchippoker.com/pro/playlists/never-stop-3betting/
    - playing not to lose vs playing to win - I've strictly been a cash player but have signed up for small ball tournaments to increase pressure decisions and shoving situations.

    This one you may have misunderstood. Think of it as a hand by hand basis. Your playing to win the hand, not stack the whole table. Of course if that happens great! What I meant was you're playing not to get stacked because maybe you can't rebuy, so you want to get to showdown as cheap as possible. This is not playing optimal. You want to play in a way that is the highest EV which maximizes your win rate long run. I guess I could rephrase it, "Do not play not to get stacked, play to stack your opponent."
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    - do you have a thought process (or is there a video) for working through possible combos? As im sure others feel the same, the process when under pressure would be useful

    I read @Austin's reply, and it is incredibly helpful. I'll confess, though: Even though I nearly majored in math, it's too much for me to process at live table in the moment. I try to break it down, and I'll run through my thoughts on this hand as an example when the action is on you after Reg 3's flop bet.

    He probably doesn't have JJ. If he's "not afraid to apply pressure", then I think that there's a good chance that he raises it pre-flop. 77 or 44 is possible, but that's a tough cold-call when there's a 3bet before him. But, possible. Doesn't strike me as likely

    No real draws out here. AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9 -- certainly suited -- are all possible. These all seem like good hands to bet with here.

    Pure air? Maybe he's taking a stab. Likes to be aggressive, but it's pretty bold stabbing with pure air into two players leading pre-flop action.

    Hmmm.... I would guess that the likelihood a set and pure air bluff sort of cancel each other out, leaving the most likely option as some kind of jack. I'm sure that there are some outlier hands that I'm missing, or maybe he just went crazy pre-flop for a moment and somehow has two pair. But, add all those up, and I have to imagine that I'm good at least 50% of time here against BUT if not way more.

    If BUT does have a jack, there's a good chance that he won't want to fold if I shove. If he has pure air, then I don't know how likely it is that he double-barrel bluffs. So, I think that raising vs. BUT makes sense.

    Reg 2... AK? Unlikely that he has AA or KK or QQ -- he probably would have cbet. Since he 3bet pre-flop, unlikely that he has 77 or 44. So, the only hand that I'm likely behind is JJ. If he has it, then odds are we're getting it all in soon enough. If he doesn't, then he's probably folding here.

    So, I don't really need to worry about Reg 2, and I already determined that raising is best vs. Reg 3 / BUT.

    Let's see, that felt like it took about 3 minutes. But, no one seems agitated... probably closer to about 10-15 seconds. Damn, that really felt longer. Why is that? F*ck!! Focus, focus -- you're in a hand!

    Okay, steadying breath one, steadying breath two, steadying breath three -- act natural...


    "All-in."

  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    @Austin Thanks for the vid links - I'm working my way through them now.

    @moishetreats I don't think I'm going to be able to play a hand again without saying "fuck focus you're in a hand"

    Clearly this was an interesting topic, even though I thought i thought it was more straight forward. Im back at the felt tonight so will post anything interesting
  • Adam KeenanAdam Keenan Red Chipper Posts: 27 ✭✭
    @Austin @moishetreats @Red

    Thank you for the advice.... Just won the Saturday night tournament! Your advice came in handy... played to win not to not lose
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Austin @moishetreats @Red

    Thank you for the advice.... Just won the Saturday night tournament! Your advice came in handy... played to win not to not lose

    Congrats on the immediate results! Always nice to see.
  • John ValentineJohn Valentine Red Chipper Posts: 45 ✭✭
    You should have raised the $90 to $200 preflop. Make them pay to see a flop, when you are holding a premium hand.

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