Hero calling King high

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 2018 in Live Poker Hands
http://www.pokerpoise.com/viewhand?2419

First time using PokerPoise. Let me know if this is good or HH is better?

*i'll go ahead and post the HH as well. I thought it would post as a video, with out having to click on the link to open another page.

Game is $2-$3-$5 with $260 effective.
5 folds
HJ ($260) limps 5
CO Hero ($covers) :KD: :QD: raise to $25
BTN fold
SB fold
BB calls
HJ calls

flop ($80) :AC: :8D: :7C:
Check x3
Turn ($80) :AC: :8D: :7C: :6D:
BB check
HJ ($235) bet $65
Hero calls
BB folds
River ($210) :AC: :8D: :7C: :6D: :8S:
HJ ($160) bets $110
Hero calls

*I took about 90 seconds before calling. I usually play really fast, but with so many draws missing the line didn't make sense to me. Villain raises all 88+ AJ+, KJ+ preflop and usually opens $25 with her strongest hands.

*The turn bet was very polarizing and I was thinking she has a lot of FD here or 9x. Maybe a hand like :JD: :9D: for a combo draw. The bad part is she can have some 66, 77, or turn a hand like 97s into a bluff here.

*It kinda sucks holding the KdQd here because it discounts a lot of middling flush draws she can have here that I beat. I guess she can still have hands like Qc9c as well.

What would you put villain on?

*I dont see any Ax in her range.

Range:
Value - 17 combos
T9s (4)
54s (4)
66 (3)
77 (3)
98s (2)
87s (1)

bluffs - 10 combos
J9s (4)
Q9s (3)
K9s (3)

Any bluffs that you see that I am missing? I don't think she has many T9o hands. I guess I can throw in some Adxd hands, which would make my turn call pretty bad.

I know I was only getting about 2:1 on the turn, so depending on the river I was going to use position to possibly make a play if checked to. On this particular river being pretty much a brick and she continued to bet, I thought best option was calling. I think it's much closer than people think, but I also realize I have much better hands here to hero call with.

Sorry thoughts are kinda rambled... hopefully this all makes sense.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    I dislike the fact that you're trying to make river a decision. Commitment to the pot is made on turn:
    - V bet doesn't give you the right odds to call only with FD. So you need to win more often than only with FD.
    - there will be less than a pot left on river when you call. So any reaction to V turn bet is de facto playing for stacks
    If, based on your info, turn bet is polarized AND unbalanced with too many bluffs, then it's time to shove. But the problem is, as you didn't c-bet flop, what do you rep for value ? Not much, making a turn shove a bit pointless.

    This crappy situation comes from flop, when you didn't c-bet. You played your hand, which equity is meh, instead of your range. Against an apparently bad player (half stack at the beginning of the hand, limp-calling preflop with crappy hand like Q9s, meaning a HUGE range on flop).
    You didn't have a plan on the flop, which lead to your river decision "do I call with K high?"

    Nota bene: I think your V profile might be biased. It's rare that a V will fire "too many" draws on turn (very aggressive) but limp-calling super wide preflpo (very passive) aka rare that their profile differs pre and post-flop. Maybe you're twisting her range to justify a river call ?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    In addition to all of @Red's great comments, I am particularly confused by the turn lead range that you assign to V.
  • VegaVega Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »

    I think the hand is private. I am unable to view it. Should be a way to make it public.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In addition to all of @Red's great comments, I am particularly confused by the turn lead range that you assign to V.

    What is confusing? Wet board with lots of draws. This is the preflop range I assigned roughly in my head.

    ka2u2idpug9b.png

    This is the range I gave for her turn bet now that I slept. I think it's pretty realistic. Mostly combo draws. Of diamonds or clubs
    k5guixphcvpt.png

    Against this range I have 33% equity despite her have AdXd.

    On the river I didn't go back and discount the 8x from the range, but it shows I have 26% equity.

    Also live tell not in my favor and it did cross my mind was when she bet the river she only had $50-$60 left behind. I thought this was pretty strong.

    How's my range analysis?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Red i'll come back to your comment. You make some good points, but not everything lines up. I'll explain my delayed cbet and my flop and turn plan more in detail. It's not "i dont have a pair or draw so I check." I am not a level 1 player.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This crappy situation comes from flop, when you didn't c-bet. You played your hand, which equity is meh, instead of your range.

    @Red I did not cbet the flop because I believed the BB is going to have quite a few Ax hands. You don't want to cbet 100% in a 3 way pot. I only have the back door flush going for me and it's not realistic to barrel a live player off top pair. I block Ak and AQ, but I also block some of the KQ and QJ hands in their calling range as well. I think I can bet turn given another high card T-A or a low card 2-5.
    I dislike the fact that you're trying to make river a decision. Commitment to the pot is made on turn:

    Commitment threshold is over rated. Just because I call turn doesn't mean I have to make a play or call river. If you look at the pot odds, assuming villain makes a play on the river or calls a bet if I make a flush. I am basically calling $65 to win $315 in terms of implied odds. In my head if checked to I was planning to bet a lot of clubs, diamonds, or 4 liner straights that completed. Just using position + villains line to determine range and take the best course of action. If clubs complete or 4 liner completes and I am bet into again then its an easy fold.
    If, based on your info, turn bet is polarized AND unbalanced with too many bluffs, then it's time to shove.

    This crossed my mind as well on the turn. The problem I had with this in terms of shoving is if she has a pair + draw she is not folding. She would be calling $380 to win $170 and getting 2.2 : 1. That combined with the fact that I am not repping much besides a couple combos that I might slow play or pocket 66.
    Nota bene: I think your V profile might be biased. It's rare that a V will fire "too many" draws on turn (very aggressive) but limp-calling super wide preflpo (very passive) aka rare that their profile differs pre and post-flop. Maybe you're twisting her range to justify a river call ?

    What do you think of the range I listed above? Despite the range listed above, which I think is pretty realistic, I still don't like my call. My gut said one thing during the hand and my mind and poker logic said another. This was one of the times I went with my gut instead of fundamentals.

    Now that you know what was going through my head and ranges I was assigning, what are your thoughts?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    What is confusing?

    I don't see V leading out naked flush draws and 9x hands on the turn. You know V better than I; it seems like most of those hands would fall in the bluff-catching range, no?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    What is confusing?

    I don't see V leading out naked flush draws and 9x hands on the turn. You know V better than I; it seems like most of those hands would fall in the bluff-catching range, no?

    What range do you give V leading?
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    What is confusing?

    I don't see V leading out naked flush draws and 9x hands on the turn. You know V better than I; it seems like most of those hands would fall in the bluff-catching range, no?

    What range do you give V leading?

    Most likely not enough bluffs or semi-bluffs to justify a call with an intent to steal or bluff-catch on the river (my instinct is that a turn shove would have better results than a turn call). The fact that it's a three-way pot also plays into it for me.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    What is confusing?

    I don't see V leading out naked flush draws and 9x hands on the turn. You know V better than I; it seems like most of those hands would fall in the bluff-catching range, no?

    What range do you give V leading?

    Most likely not enough bluffs or semi-bluffs to justify a call with an intent to steal or bluff-catch on the river (my instinct is that a turn shove would have better results than a turn call). The fact that it's a three-way pot also plays into it for me.

    If I think she has a pair + draw or just a draw, then I have roughly 15 outs for diamonds Q or K. Maybe 13 outs as clubs would discount some, but if I am calling king high, then I am also calling when I make a pair on the river. Thats why I said it's closer than what people think.

    If there are not enough bluffs then please give me what hands you think she bets on the turn? What hands does she check fold, check call, and bet river with?

    If you rule out AJ+, you are saying the polarize bet is 2 pair or better on the turn and couple combo draws? I think my range showed that, but look at the equity and the math. It's basically a call mathematically, but super thin.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,094 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    This crappy situation comes from flop, when you didn't c-bet. You played your hand, which equity is meh, instead of your range.

    @Red I did not cbet the flop because I believed the BB is going to have quite a few Ax hands. You don't want to cbet 100% in a 3 way pot. I only have the back door flush going for me and it's not realistic to barrel a live player off top pair. I block Ak and AQ, but I also block some of the KQ and QJ hands in their calling range as well. I think I can bet turn given another high card T-A or a low card 2-5.

    That's sure. Still you have to bluff sometimes. Esp. since Villains have capped range and there should be a lot of junk in BB and HJ range you want to fold - you still don't have a made hand on the flop and have to win by aggression.

    Also the problem is: by not c-betting, you're capping your range. With so many draws and good hands possible, this doesn't mean you have no more good hands - because I expect you to check some of them - but maybe not enough or strong enough to bluff on further streets.

    I'd c-bet KdQd. Bckd equity is great. I can see a c-bet with it as I'm happy to take the pot down against their many junk, denying much of their equity.
    I'd but be cautious if I get action and don't improve on turn.
    Austin wrote: »
    If you look at the pot odds, assuming villain makes a play on the river or calls a bet if I make a flush. I am basically calling $65 to win $315 in terms of implied odds
    Since you didn't describe V, I can't say anything about your IO. But don't forget that if :DIAMOND: flush complete, is often with a card connected to the SD as well. If Villain is lead with 2P or set, she might not put a dime on river. Because of that, I'd not exaggerate your IO, even if it's a bckd flush (less espected than :CLUB: FD). And :AD: and :7D: are poisonous cards as well.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    villain had :8H: :9H: hero lost
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    If there are not enough bluffs then please give me what hands you think she bets on the turn? What hands does she check fold, check call, and bet river with?

    [I didn't read the spoiler.]

    As a default, I don't see V leading out on the turn with less than Ax+. Maybe with a hand that hit the flop and gained equity on the turn (e.g., an 8, 7, or 6 with a 9 or a 5 or a diamond or both). Even against the 8x, 7x, 6x hands, you're not in great shape. And you are in terrible shape against the Ax hands.

    Say that V has Ax+. You still lose when a K or Q hits, and you likely can't push her off the pot if you bet a checked river. Say that the flush hits. You're going to have a reallllly hard time getting paid off. Say that everything bricks. You're losing when you Hero call.

    Say that V has 8, 7, or 6 plus a draw. I doubt that V leads out again on the river unless she improves. You might be able to steal a pot if she checks and you bet. Otherwise, every river card that she bets has you beat.

    I don't see any significant percentage of pure bluffs or semi-bluffs.

    If I'm somewhat on-target (and I might not be!), then the only way that you win this hand after she bets the turn is if she is on an 8, 7, 6 + draw hand AND the river misses AND she checks, you bet, and she folds. That is far too remote a possibility, IMO, to justify a call.

    I also don't think that you're guaranteed to get paid off if your flush hits. It's possible, but not guaranteed. And she's not deep enough to give you meaningful implied odds anyway.

    Put it this way: I think that her turn lead range is far stronger than you suggest without that many opportunities for you to steal the pot on the river. And I don't see enough hands that K-high beats that she leads both the turn and the river.

    If I'm wrong about my range, then I'd more likely be shoving the turn than calling. If I'm right, then I'm folding the turn (if I didn't cbet, which I likely would have done, as @Red suggests). In either case, as played, I am not Hero-calling here. I just don't see her showing up with a missed bluff or semi-bluff almost ever let alone often enough to justify a call.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I knew posting this hand would get quite a bit of criticism. Not that it is bad. It is pretty good feed back. My main fear of calling the river was being shown a hand like 65s and the table wondering Wtf i called with lol. Would look really bad. Some times trying to look like a hero with a sick read gets the best of me. I've called Q high before if its any justification on 98xxA against J10 (I had QJ). Some times I just ignore the math and go with my read.

    @moishetreats you will just have to take my word for it. Unless its A6s-A8s for turn two pair there is ZERO Ax (one pair) she has here. It's just a bet sizing tell I know about.

    If she has a pair+sd gives me 13 outs (26%) and ability to bluff quite a few rivers as I still have some A10+ in my range at about 1\3 the way my range is constructed, that's including AK and AQ. I agree KQ is way too low in my range to call here fundamentally.

    If im going with my range assumptions, if I think she is value heavy then its almost always, 66,77,87s, 98s, A8s, T9s, and 54s and thats it, 20 combos. For me to make this call, she would have to be using blockers with Q9s, K9s, J10s, J9s (14 combos).

    Overall, im not happy with my call, not because I lost, but just the overall range, & leaving money behind. I put a lot into live tells and should have snap folded once she left money behind. Verbalized her bet. Sitting forward etc. So many live tells says snap fold! My ranges overall is pretty spot on I still believe, just don't know about her river frequency and how her continueance range looks. AX is definitely a snap call for me here or im over folding. Just not sure what other hands I should be calling here with.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    My main fear of calling the river was being shown a hand like 65s and the table wondering Wtf i called with lol. Would look really bad.

    Hahahaha! So true! :)
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @moishetreats you will just have to take my word for it. Unless its A6s-A8s for turn two pair there is ZERO Ax (one pair) she has here. It's just a bet sizing tell I know about.

    Fair enough!

    Austin wrote: »
    Overall, im not happy with my call, not because I lost, but just the overall range, & leaving money behind. I put a lot into live tells and should have snap folded once she left money behind. Verbalized her bet. Sitting forward etc. So many live tells says snap fold! My ranges overall is pretty spot on I still believe, just don't know about her river frequency and how her continueance range looks. AX is definitely a snap call for me here or im over folding. Just not sure what other hands I should be calling here with.

    Maybe this is a unique situation where your river-calling frequency is just going to be way off relative to your turn-calling frequency?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @moishetreats you will just have to take my word for it. Unless its A6s-A8s for turn two pair there is ZERO Ax (one pair) she has here. It's just a bet sizing tell I know about.

    Fair enough!

    Austin wrote: »
    Overall, im not happy with my call, not because I lost, but just the overall range, & leaving money behind. I put a lot into live tells and should have snap folded once she left money behind. Verbalized her bet. Sitting forward etc. So many live tells says snap fold! My ranges overall is pretty spot on I still believe, just don't know about her river frequency and how her continueance range looks. AX is definitely a snap call for me here or im over folding. Just not sure what other hands I should be calling here with.

    Maybe this is a unique situation where your river-calling frequency is just going to be way off relative to your turn-calling frequency?

    My flop check is pretty well balanced. Christian told me if I think their turn ranged is merged than KQs becomes an easy fold especially on the river. If their turn bet is poled then I can figure out what to do with my hand. Because she has so many pair + draws in her range, she is merged. I can either play for implied odds if I think she is sticky or fold. Also if she is merged I can call when I make a pair on the river beating some 97s, 87s type hands. If the river bricks and she checks, brick being T-A and 2-4 I can take the pot away when checked to. Against a 2nd barrel I just need a hand of some kind against a merged range.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Christian told me if I think their turn ranged is merged than KQs becomes an easy fold especially on the river. If their turn bet is poled then I can figure out what to do with my hand. Because she has so many pair + draws in her range, she is merged. I can either play for implied odds if I think she is sticky or fold. Also if she is merged I can call when I make a pair on the river beating some 97s, 87s type hands. If the river bricks and she checks, brick being T-A and 2-4 I can take the pot away when checked to. Against a 2nd barrel I just need a hand of some kind against a merged range.

    @Christian Soto: Really? This seems wrong. But, I'm still learning about this stuff, so I might be waaaay off, too.

    1) Even if V does have some pair + draws in her range, I don't think that it is a particularly high percentage. For a call to be justified against a merged range, the range has to be much more balanced toward semi-bluffs/bluffs than V is here. Correct?

    2) Hero-calling hoping to spike a K or Q also doesn't make much sense to me. If Hero had, say, K9 or even J9, then I think that a call is far justified since there is a decent enough chance against a truly merged range that Hero is ahead. Hero is basically never ahead even against a merged range with KQ.

    3) Finally, doesn't V need to have more behind to really attack this range? Wouldn't a river raise be necessary as part of the arsenal to combat a merged range, also impossible given V's stack size?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    Austin wrote: »
    Christian told me if I think their turn ranged is merged than KQs becomes an easy fold especially on the river. If their turn bet is poled then I can figure out what to do with my hand. Because she has so many pair + draws in her range, she is merged. I can either play for implied odds if I think she is sticky or fold. Also if she is merged I can call when I make a pair on the river beating some 97s, 87s type hands. If the river bricks and she checks, brick being T-A and 2-4 I can take the pot away when checked to. Against a 2nd barrel I just need a hand of some kind against a merged range.

    @Christian Soto: Really? This seems wrong. But, I'm still learning about this stuff, so I might be waaaay off, too.

    1) Even if V does have some pair + draws in her range, I don't think that it is a particularly high percentage. For a call to be justified against a merged range, the range has to be much more balanced toward semi-bluffs/bluffs than V is here. Correct?

    2) Hero-calling hoping to spike a K or Q also doesn't make much sense to me. If Hero had, say, K9 or even J9, then I think that a call is far justified since there is a decent enough chance against a truly merged range that Hero is ahead. Hero is basically never ahead even against a merged range with KQ.

    3) Finally, doesn't V need to have more behind to really attack this range? Wouldn't a river raise be necessary as part of the arsenal to combat a merged range, also impossible given V's stack size?

    Well, I think the true issue in the hand is there is no way to combat here with this hand because of stack sizes.

    But let’s give ourselves weak Ax and we play this out under the same assumptions of villain’s range and same stack sizes.

    What is the play/incentives on the Turn?

    Once we shine light on that, I think it exposes what KQdd wants to do.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    But let’s give ourselves weak Ax and we play this out under the same assumptions of villain’s range and same stack sizes.

    What is the play/incentives on the Turn?

    Once we shine light on that, I think it exposes what KQdd wants to do.

    It's different, isn't it? Weak Ax could check call the turn given its showdown value. KQ has almost no showdown value, IMO.

  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Well our opponent lead the Turn after we CBet Flop

    What do you think that range consist of
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Well our opponent lead the Turn after we CBet Flop

    What do you think that range consist of

    The flop checked through as the did the turn until V bet.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    Your bluff list didn't include J10s.

    ***
    Never mind, you redid the analysis, and included more of the value hands that were missing, too.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Game is $2-$3-$5 with $260 effective.
    5 folds
    HJ ($260) limps 5
    CO Hero ($covers) :KD: :QD: raise to $25
    BTN fold
    SB fold
    BB calls
    HJ calls

    flop ($80) :AC: :8D: :7C:
    Check x3
    Turn ($80) :AC: :8D: :7C: :6D:
    BB check
    HJ ($235) bet $65
    Hero calls
    BB folds
    River ($210) :AC: :8D: :7C: :6D: :8S:
    HJ ($160) bets $110
    Hero calls


    Preflop
    Snowie Analysis.
    Preflop once HJ limps
    CO raising
    99+, AJ+, A2s+, KQ+, suited Broadways

    *Snowie's range for calling the preflop iso for HJ is super tight JJ+ AQ+.

    Flop
    On the flop in terms of half pot to pot size bets snowie has KQd as a check and with 1/4th sizing its split nearly 50/50 between betting and checking. Most of the range will consist of AQ+, sets, 2 pairs, and draws (SD or FD).

    Turn
    Snowie has HJ leading AQ & AK, but note the preflop range was super tight. This is where you need PIO to adjust the ranges.

    As played Snowie has Hero only calling (not raising)
    KTd-KQd, A2d-A5d, A6s, 76s, A5s,

    I think because Snowie is giving HJ the AQ and AK hands, it is taking away most fd they can have, so has hero calling the ace high and king high flush draws.

    Snowie has hero calling Ax and folding everything else. Folding Ax about 5% of the time.

    Curious how PIO plays compared to Snowie if anyone wants to load it up (if not no worries). We know River is a fold and turn is marginal call or fold.... kinda split in the middle. Can't be a raise if villain is merged though.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭✭
    you can't PIO multiway spots
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    you can't PIO multiway spots

    What if you just ignore the BB?
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭✭
    sure but now you have to make a bunch of assumptions about ranges

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