Preflop Decision

MadsaacMadsaac Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
edited September 2018 in Tournament Poker Hands
Tournament: $330 - A few regulars mostly recreational players
800/1600/160
Folds to UTG+1 (83K) who raises to 3500K with JJ
SB (51K) 3bets to 9900
Hero??

SB was active but nothing crazy, I’d only been on this table for an hour so I didn't have much information on him. However just two hands ago he lost a hand for around 1/3 of his stack

Thanks

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Answer: Fold

    Can you tell us why?
  • MadsaacMadsaac Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    I think its a tight fold as well but a few people I have spoken to reckon you shove it in because his value range is wide enough and has enough bluffs. They also say there's enough dead money to warrant a shove and some FE.

    However I think he's hardly bluffing here and JJ v a SB raising range against an early open is pretty tight so your equity something around 50%?

    So I don't think it's worth risking 2/3s of your stack?

    There's approximately 17000 (10BBs) dead money and so it's going to cost you approximately 40000 to win 60000. And I think your FE equity is minimal here

    So in overall even though he may be bluffing sometimes, its okay to be exploited occasionally than lose a large chunk of your stack and tournament life.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Madsaac wrote: »
    I think its a tight fold as well but a few people I have spoken to reckon you shove it in because his value range is wide enough and has enough bluffs. They also say there's enough dead money to warrant a shove and some FE.

    However I think he's hardly bluffing here and JJ v a SB raising range against an early open is pretty tight so your equity something around 50%?

    So I don't think it's worth risking 2/3s of your stack?

    There's approximately 17000 (10BBs) dead money and so it's going to cost you approximately 40000 to win 60000. And I think your FE equity is minimal here

    So in overall even though he may be bluffing sometimes, its okay to be exploited occasionally than lose a large chunk of your stack and tournament life.

    Where's the 10bb in dead money? The 9900 from SB is very much alive!

    JJ vs QQ+ AKo\s+ only has 36% equity. What range are you giving for 50%?
  • MadsaacMadsaac Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    4000+3500+9900=17400

    JJ vs TT+ AQo\s and one bluff
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Madsaac wrote: »
    4000+3500+9900=17400

    JJ vs TT+ AQo\s and one bluff

    I guess if you want to count your raise as dead money also... I basically only see Ante and BB as dead money. Not much of a lay over.... Wait are you BB? I thought you were UTG+1?

    Even easier fold imo if your BB. Decision on cold 4 betting or folding?

    Gotta work on your HH formating.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    edited September 2018
    Austin wrote: »
    Madsaac wrote: »
    I think its a tight fold as well but a few people I have spoken to reckon you shove it in because his value range is wide enough and has enough bluffs. They also say there's enough dead money to warrant a shove and some FE.

    However I think he's hardly bluffing here and JJ v a SB raising range against an early open is pretty tight so your equity something around 50%?

    So I don't think it's worth risking 2/3s of your stack?

    There's approximately 17000 (10BBs) dead money and so it's going to cost you approximately 40000 to win 60000. And I think your FE equity is minimal here

    So in overall even though he may be bluffing sometimes, its okay to be exploited occasionally than lose a large chunk of your stack and tournament life.

    Where's the 10bb in dead money? The 9900 from SB is very much alive!

    JJ vs QQ+ AKo\s+ only has 36% equity. What range are you giving for 50%?

    Austin I think you're only focusing on the range of which V calls off if we 4bet shove. You are neglecting to include his entire 3bet range, which on 32bb stack could include a ton of bluffs, because it really looks like he's committing his stack when he 3bets off this size stack. This is exactly why I 3bet light often on 30-36bb stacks, because it sends the illusion across the table that you are ready to get it in.

    But let's say he's only 3betting 88+ AQ+ A5s. That's 78 combos and he's only calling off with 46 combos (1010+ AK). We're not doing so bad against that range actually-- 43.3%. So a 4bet shove gets us the 10bb 41%.

    F= -2.2bb

    Shove = +10bb 41% (goes through)
    +34bb 25% (calls w/ 1010+ AK we win)
    -32bb 34% (calls w/ 1010+ AK we lose)

    Shoving is +1.38bb and folding is -2.2bb so shoving is +3.58bb.

    I think that it's still very player dependent and if I think V thinks I'm opening wide then I'm sending the Jacks here. There are times when V is just ABC af and their 3bet is QQ+ AK, so you have 0% FE and if you perceive this then easy fold of course.

    Also, keep in mind, we do still have 20bb remaining in the 34% outcome that we lose. This is not the end of the world. In tournaments we have to accumulate chips and also considering V just lost 1/3 of his chips, I think there is some tilt factors here and we can deduce he isn't the tightest of players. This seems like a pretty good spot to work on accumulating chips. Generally live players give off a ton of subtle information in these spots, and I think you can take your time with this decision and some live read stuff could push you one way or the other.

    So overall, I think JJ is super close, but a shove and I think 1010 is a fold. This also comes down to overall strategy which for me is probably wider than you, so I have to defend a bit wider, because people do in fact attack me with light 3bets. Like if I know no one is perceiving me as wide I'm folding JJ here. But the second we start adding even just a couple combos of lightness/bluff we have to shove JJ here.





  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Forget to mention this: V's sizing is odd here. It's only 2.8x which is small for OOP 3bet. Anything to deduce from this? Or is it more likely he just doesn't know how to properly size?
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    @EatRunPoker
    Like if I know no one is perceiving me as wide I'm folding JJ here.

    If someone is perceiving you as wide, that is more of a reason to stack off JJ, not fold.


    let's say he's only 3betting 88+ AQ+ A5s
    I'm taking "only" as that is a tight 3 bet range for you. I will say in a UTG+1 vs SB formation this is likely a leak at 32bb. UTG1 opened (3500 / 2.1bb) and SB raised to (9900/6.1bb)

    Couple of things to look at here.
    1) formation = strength
    2) the small 3 bet is still about 20% of SB stack
    Forget to mention this: V's sizing is odd here. It's only 2.8x which is small for OOP 3bet. Anything to deduce from this? Or is it more likely he just doesn't know how to properly size?
    3) 9900 is symbolic of a "discount," so begging for a call being under 10k. He's got 99 problems but JJ aint one.
    4) If he is competent losing 1/3 of his stack few hands before plays into his favor.
    5) Live games people are just not 3 betting very wide. 6% is the 88+, AQ+, A5s range, which is pretty high. Hard to imagine someone lasted this long with that 3 bet range.

    I think villain has to be pretty aggro with his 3 betting range for JJ to call or ship. I also think it is more of a call than a shove between the two.

    When I put this into Snowie. Snowie has 4 betting as QQ+, AK+ and calling 77-JJ, AQs. Again this is cash game scenario formatting.... still waiting for Snowie to have MTT scenario's available.
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @EatRunPoker
    Like if I know no one is perceiving me as wide I'm folding JJ here.

    If someone is perceiving you as wide, that is more of a reason to stack off JJ, not fold.

    You need to reread this.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    @EatRunPoker
    Like if I know no one is perceiving me as wide I'm folding JJ here.

    If someone is perceiving you as wide, that is more of a reason to stack off JJ, not fold.

    You need to reread this.

    If your opening wide, then they are likely 3 betting wide, there for you stack off with JJ. What am I missing?
  • EatRunPokerEatRunPoker NY, NYRed Chipper Posts: 91 ✭✭
    That is exactly what I wrote. "If I know no one is perceiving me as wide I'm folding JJ here" is what I wrote. Meaning if people ARE perceiving me as wide I'm stacking off. It's a double negative, hard to understand I know. Sorry.

    If people think I'm tight and then 3bet my utg1 open that is very strong. I open much wider than you do, because I know how to play post flop against these opponents. So I have to defend JJ here most of the time. I fold it under certain table dynamics, but generally not folding here.

    This happened to me last weekend near end of Day 1 while on my way to final table and 4th place finish for $7,200. I open K10s (like 4th time this orbit) and this guy who has already made comments about my play, b/c the hand prior I opened J7s CO and had a 7bb stack shove and I called of course the 4.5bb more, hit a 7 and took that pot against AKo. He looks up at me strangely, looks very weak, but then shoves anyways. It's like 14bb and I have like 40bb. Normally this is an easy fold, but I just know this guy is shoving all kinds of small PP and other garbage. He doesn't realize that 14bb is heaps and his frustration with me is clearly evident. Anyways he has 10Jo and I win another easy pot. The woman next to him said he'd been so tight all night long and she thinks his blow up had something to do with me coming to the table. HMMM... $250 buy in tourney players are HORRIBLE.

    I think you'd be surprised how often people will fold to a 4bet shove in this spot in question. It's a lot more than 0% as you seem to think--that's all I'm trying to say.

    But hey, if Snowie tells you to fold, by all means keep folding. It makes my life much easier.





  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    First sorry.... I laugh now after reading this again. Was watching Dexter, not sure how I missed it the first two times.
    I open much wider than you do, because I know how to play post flop against these opponents.

    This is an interesting assumption about my game. Are you implying I don't know how to play postflop against loose players?

    Are there any facts about opening a wide range from EP being profitable over a decent sample size? I come from an online background with millions of hands played. Hands like A10o and KJo from UTG are just not profitable. One of your other post regarding 54s showed you have 1500 hours played, if im not mistaken once again. Roughly 40,000 hands played. Of that sample, how much profit do you think your making with the bottom of your range? I try and be realistic with my fold equity if I'm opening wider. Kind of contradicts calling players loose but you can show a profit from making them fold.

    Anyways back on topic. If JJ is "marginal" against a wider 3 bet range and TT is a fold, then we just have to figure out how wide SB is 3 betting. Sb being "active" doesn't tell us anything about his 3 betting tendencies. Too many assumptions are being made.
  • MadsaacMadsaac Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    edited September 2018
    Thanks for the feedback guys.

    One thing for sure it is a tough spot. The maths can go either way but I don't think he's on tilt and after he recently lost a fair bit of his stack I think his 3bet range is on the tighter side here. Not sure if he woul normally choose this spot to bluff.

    I punched some numbers into Icmizer with hero opening 7%(99+,ATs+,AJo+) and villain raising 5%(TT+,AQ+,A5s) and its says to push with TT+AK with no ICM considerations.

    Villain raising 6%(88+,AQ,A5s) hero should push with (TT+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs)

    He pocket Aces btw
  • GazelligGazellig RCP Coach Posts: 74 ✭✭
    You should be opening way wider than 7% in this position (probably close to double that) and without any reads/info this is a 4-bet jam preflop.
  • MadsaacMadsaac Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
    Gazellig wrote: »
    You should be opening way wider than 7% in this position (probably close to double that) and without any reads/info this is a 4-bet jam preflop.

    Ok thanks. 14% even with mid stacks? Lots of different opinions on this situation.

    BTW are you a Red Chip coach? Are you ever on the podcast?

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