5 Bet bluffing vs aggressive villain

MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.06, PFR: 19.06, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 333)
BB: 133.8 BB (VPIP: 26.58, PFR: 21.52, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, 4Bet Preflop: 4/12,Hands: 82)
CO: 127.4 BB (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
Hero (BTN): 344 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Tc :8c

CO raises to 3.4 BB, Hero raises to 10.6 BB, SB raises to 31 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 344 BB and is all-in, SB calls 69 BB and is all-in
5-Bet shoving

Calling Range: JJ+, AKs,AKo --> 24% equity (T8s)
Folding Range: A5s, A4s

Call Combos: 40
Fold Combos: 8

Villain folds: 8/40 --> 20%

BE point: 47%

EV = F($Pot) +C (%W*$W)-C(%L*$L
= 0.2(46)+0.8(0.28*105.4)-0.8(0.72*89.4)
= -18.68 BB

Shove is strongly negative!

Calling

Tc8c vs JJ+, AKs, A4s-A5s, AKo

Hand has 30.32% vs range above

Pot odds: 1:2.25 = 31%

Call slightly -EV, might still be profitable cause of position better realization of my equity

Folding

0 EV

Correct decision

Folding is the correct play, if SPR would be higher (3+), call profitable. With 1.5 SPR calling not optimal.

I decided to shove cause he seems to be able to 4 bet bluff. In recap, it wasnt the best play. Laying the hand down probably would have been the best.

Comments

  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    4 bet "stat in BB is for SB :P Thanks for your opinion :-)
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    That's another tough table for 5NL. Is 888 known as harder than Stars? I've been playing thousands of hands @ 5NL on WPN lately and am down $2 lol. So, so hard to put together a roll. I had $28 on there after I pulled everything I could off of every site a few months back and it's gone from that to $47, down to $38, back to $44, and then just gradually fell back down to ~$25.50. Learning a ton, increasing my volume, and pouring over hand histories, though. I have made so many folds that I just never would have ever a few months ago to the extent that I would have been *several* BI's down by now over the same span of cards. Still, the dynamics at the tables are really difficult and I'm terribly overfolding to 3b's in general. In total, I can say that I've ever played this good before and am happy I've spent time in this game again. 25NL on BetOnline was considerably easier than 5NL here on WPN. Considerably.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    Soon as I read the title and saw the effective stacks I knew it was going to be a spew.

    SB has pretty standard stats. As you move up in stakes are you going to shove T8s vs the entire table?

    You have to figure out if SB is using a merged range or polarized. Then how to best play against that range.

    This hand is just an easy fold vs 3bet.

    I agree, it was spewy. Even if he 3 bets only polarized in that spot, its -EV. If he 3 bets linear, it depends which parts of his range he is folding.

    Should I even have a bluffing range when 5 bet shoving? I figured out that when I shove I only have 100% Value hands (QQ+, AK)

    How do you construct your range in that spot Austin?
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    I ment 4 betting for opponent
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    mgauch wrote: »
    I ment 4 betting for opponent

    Asking how to construct a cold 4bet range in SB 4bet? vs CO 2bet vs BTN 3bet.

    I missed read the hand earlier. I thought you 3bet and then opponent 4 bet. Facing a cold 4bet it's even an easier fold.

    Co opening 20-35% of hands.
    What is your 3bet range on btn vs CO? Let's say 12%?
    g05lako1m1kx.png

    Now you face a pretty big cold 4 bet. Honestly you can't do much about it. SB range is going to be KK+ AK+ A BUNCH then a mixtute of QQ-TT. If you have an aggro 3bet range.

    You can 5 bet some QQ+ AK+ and maybe some A10s-AKs hands. If you think villain folds to a 5bet, then I would flat call KK and AA and shove the others. Need a pretty big sample of cold 4 bets though. Live games im mucking AKo and QQ pretty often vs a cold 4bet. It's just an exploit as they always have KK+.
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    Variance sucks and exists for every poker player, as it's an inherent aspect of mathematics and statistics. I understand there has been issues with fair play on sites in the past, but I find "online site rigging" is more of a useful excuse rather than attributing downswings to poor play or the cards falling as cards do.

    Player pools are an actual variable that can be solved for, I agree.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    mgauch wrote: »
    Joseph F wrote: »
    https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/ex-official-winning-poker-network-acr-bcp-true-discussion-thread-1112097/index541.html

    That you're not up to speed with this means you haven't really paid attention to the online poker world much at all lately. There are more pros complaining about rigging, bots, and other nefarious forces over at WPN than ever. I sit and specifically take hands there because I know it's not legit, it's going to be harder than anywhere to put together a bankroll, and I had a few bucks left on the site. Only a complete imbecile would go and pay a coach to beat 5NL there. I'll never make a dime on WPN and I know that. Volume is to be put in on BetOnline and Global as WPN and Ignition can't be trusted at all. /shrug. Until (if) the situation clears up, I won't play anything other than here and there, sporadically. I'm by no means alone.

    This is why I was wondering about 888 and asked you a specific question about it. Yes, totally ignoring that question and then going on a rant that wasn't accurate or justified at all, was a bit disrespectful. You have to sit and ask yourself "what is my goal in writing what I'm about to write?". In this case, you couldn't have any objective at all so it was probably best to just not write anything, rather than just make yourself look like an asshole lol.

    Than just switch to another player pool, 888 has high rake for micros but low stakes might be better. Search on Google for the best poker site and check less known sites as GG Poker out.

    Well, that's what I'm doing: I am going to deposit on BetOnline, make a very small deposit to grind up on Ignition, and deposit on Global. As said, I just did have several BI's left for 5NL on WPN and it's been providing me with a free education since I haven't experienced tables this tough other than one morning on Ignition 25NL.

    When it comes to "rigging" - botting is a known, as close to proven as could be thing on WPN. It's rampant. Just a few minutes of perusing 2p2 forums shows that. As far as actual RNG rigging, house players, and collusion? Nobody can prove this which is the point. That said, there has been more suspicion, evidence, and clear cut accusations swirling around and aimed at WPN than any other site in 10 years. That is a fact.

    I'm not even complaining and I'm having fun which is why I didn't understand Austin's post at all. It's clearly so absorbed and enveloped in the game for so long now that it's altered his perception. So many people don't even play online anymore due to not trusting sites, falsely believing it's "illegal", etc and I have never played live before so I'm hesitant about playing largely under rolled for the first time. I'm not comfortable with putting aside $5,000 specifically for poker at this point. That's just totally not the page I'm on. Austin expresses this belief that I've been off, working on my game, and desperately trying to move up or something when in reality I literally don't even play for months at a clip. I like poker but there are other things I put time and energy into. I honestly don't really like the idea of spending countless hours in a casino per week. That's not my idea of a dream job like it is for Austin. To each their own.

    The fact remains: WPN is what we've discussed, Ignition legitimately does not have an RNG license. Ask them yourself. BetOnline is a great site, IMO and then there's Global with the sweepstakes model, no huds, no client/web based etc. There's no way you can say that the US online market is healthy.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    GGECKO wrote: »
    Player pools are an actual variable that can be solved for, I agree.

    Not really. Not for a US player in my market, at least. Ignition, Global, BetOnline, WPN. Those are your options and that's it. Oh, and Horizon but Horizon has virtually zero traffic. Like, nothing happening at all for long clips at any stake. It's been that way for over 2 years.

    There's nothing I can do about it and I'm past even complaining about botting or anything beyond that. By now I know that it is what it is and you just have to focus on playing hands. The reality is that although I've put more time in on the game at different points in the past, I'm a better player today than ever. It's obvious to me in every session. So, I'm by no means complaining and as ridiculously difficult as WPN has been lately, I have embraced the challenge and am enjoying playing.
  • NinjahNinjah Red Chipper Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭✭
    Joseph F wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Joseph F wrote: »
    That's another tough table for 5NL. Is 888 known as harder than Stars? I've been playing thousands of hands @ 5NL on WPN lately and am down $2 lol. So, so hard to put together a roll. I had $28 on there after I pulled everything I could off of every site a few months back and it's gone from that to $47, down to $38, back to $44, and then just gradually fell back down to ~$25.50. Learning a ton, increasing my volume, and pouring over hand histories, though. I have made so many folds that I just never would have ever a few months ago to the extent that I would have been *several* BI's down by now over the same span of cards. Still, the dynamics at the tables are really difficult and I'm terribly overfolding to 3b's in general. In total, I can say that I've ever played this good before and am happy I've spent time in this game again. 25NL on BetOnline was considerably easier than 5NL here on WPN. Considerably.

    No disrespect, but you been on the same path for a long time now. Your break even basically over the last year or more? I think you should honestly spend a few hundred on a coach that is beating online games. Im still 100% positive you have leaks, but you rarely post any HH any more and when you do its because of tilt and venting over bad beats. You need a coach to really analyze your data base and review an entire session of how you play. Think of how much time you spent playing over the last 12 months. Hiring a coach at this point is worth it if core and the pro videos haven't worked for you.

    @Ninjah proved these micro stakes are very beatable as he did 10,000 hands in the past just to prove their not tough and not rigged, just that micro stake players leak money on every street and don't realize it.

    Good luck

    Yeah, see - You obviously just haven't paid attention to what I've been doing. The only network I've been "on the same path" on is WPN. I was playing 25NL on Ignition and BetOnline just a couple of months ago. You really missed all those posts I made when I was playing 25NL, posting hand histories and discussing everything? Hmmm.

    Ninjah played 2NL on WPN and initially started losing terribly. WPN is notoriously known as the toughest network you can play on and is filled with bots. It very much is a unique player pool. I am DEFINITELY not spending money on a coach as I just don't play enough to justify it and since I still didn't need one for 25NL on other networks, it would make absolutely zero sense to spend money on a coach for 5NL on one network lol.

    I really do spend a fraction of the time you guys do on this game (a small fraction) and you're posting hh's from 5NL yourself so ...I don't quite understand where this post came from. What time I spend on HH's and videos I spend on RIO but again: I don't play anywhere near enough to justify spending money on anything other than a monthly video sub. It's interesting to me that you have this image of me putting tons of time and energy into study lately when I literally hadn't looked at the game in almost two months prior to last week. I'm just totally not understanding where this post came from. It's weird. I guess you're on a huge downswing and that's obviously why you're playing 5NL, too.

    I think you may misremember a bit. I crushed the stakes with relative ease. I never "lost terribly". I had a small downswing not because of bots or the games being tough but rather having to adjust my play to the quirkiness of the 2NL player pool.

    If you have better fundamentals than your opponents and you can adjust your game to the player pool, you'll win. Most players simply have too many leaks, inconsistency, and lack of a true strategy to beat the micros.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    Ninjah wrote: »
    Joseph F wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Joseph F wrote: »
    That's another tough table for 5NL. Is 888 known as harder than Stars? I've been playing thousands of hands @ 5NL on WPN lately and am down $2 lol. So, so hard to put together a roll. I had $28 on there after I pulled everything I could off of every site a few months back and it's gone from that to $47, down to $38, back to $44, and then just gradually fell back down to ~$25.50. Learning a ton, increasing my volume, and pouring over hand histories, though. I have made so many folds that I just never would have ever a few months ago to the extent that I would have been *several* BI's down by now over the same span of cards. Still, the dynamics at the tables are really difficult and I'm terribly overfolding to 3b's in general. In total, I can say that I've ever played this good before and am happy I've spent time in this game again. 25NL on BetOnline was considerably easier than 5NL here on WPN. Considerably.

    No disrespect, but you been on the same path for a long time now. Your break even basically over the last year or more? I think you should honestly spend a few hundred on a coach that is beating online games. Im still 100% positive you have leaks, but you rarely post any HH any more and when you do its because of tilt and venting over bad beats. You need a coach to really analyze your data base and review an entire session of how you play. Think of how much time you spent playing over the last 12 months. Hiring a coach at this point is worth it if core and the pro videos haven't worked for you.

    @Ninjah proved these micro stakes are very beatable as he did 10,000 hands in the past just to prove their not tough and not rigged, just that micro stake players leak money on every street and don't realize it.

    Good luck

    Yeah, see - You obviously just haven't paid attention to what I've been doing. The only network I've been "on the same path" on is WPN. I was playing 25NL on Ignition and BetOnline just a couple of months ago. You really missed all those posts I made when I was playing 25NL, posting hand histories and discussing everything? Hmmm.

    Ninjah played 2NL on WPN and initially started losing terribly. WPN is notoriously known as the toughest network you can play on and is filled with bots. It very much is a unique player pool. I am DEFINITELY not spending money on a coach as I just don't play enough to justify it and since I still didn't need one for 25NL on other networks, it would make absolutely zero sense to spend money on a coach for 5NL on one network lol.

    I really do spend a fraction of the time you guys do on this game (a small fraction) and you're posting hh's from 5NL yourself so ...I don't quite understand where this post came from. What time I spend on HH's and videos I spend on RIO but again: I don't play anywhere near enough to justify spending money on anything other than a monthly video sub. It's interesting to me that you have this image of me putting tons of time and energy into study lately when I literally hadn't looked at the game in almost two months prior to last week. I'm just totally not understanding where this post came from. It's weird. I guess you're on a huge downswing and that's obviously why you're playing 5NL, too.

    I think you may misremember a bit. I crushed the stakes with relative ease. I never "lost terribly". I had a small downswing not because of bots or the games being tough but rather having to adjust my play to the quirkiness of the 2NL player pool.

    If you have better fundamentals than your opponents and you can adjust your game to the player pool, you'll win. Most players simply have too many leaks, inconsistency, and lack of a true strategy to beat the micros.

    Yeah, see - There's just no equating the micros on WPN to the micros in general. My sample size on that site spans years now and it's just a known thing that many players refer to it as "unbeatable" with the rake as is. As far as botting or anything else - I told you, I don't think about it at this point. I know there are bots there. It's a fact. I don't really care as this is just part of online poker 2018.

    You never should have had to make any adjustment to the "quirkiness" (right, it's not like poker anywhere else) of a 2NL pool. The fact that it was a 2NL pool should have made not building a roll quickly nigh impossible for you. That's the point - 25NL and 50NL multitablers should not find 2NL/5NL/10NL that difficult anywhere. WPN is a very unique poker experience.

    All of this said: I understand variance more today than ever. I could go on a ridiculous heater tonight and the winrate will skyrocket. I could also drop several BI's to legitimate coolers. I know that until we're dealing with a relatively huge sample size, we're not even putting a dent into outrunning variance. Still, I can ascertain the difficulty level of the games and the 5NL games here are much harder than 25NL on the rec networks. Much. When you then throw in how much harder the rake hits you @ 5NL, you can definitely see how regular winners might not win at all here. I've honestly seen some guys who weren't *good* by low+ stakes standards but were definitely clearly good enough for the micros just...get...cleaned...out in a week or two. 30+ BI's down in 10k hands and haven't come back to the tables. I've profited slightly after rakeback over the last 10k and yeah - It's been really hard to not drop BI after BI.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    As said, I've done a lot of HH's elsewhere lately. I've read other's even more. I'm working on a strat to beat these games actively and all I can come up with is to increase both vpip/pfr/3b and postflop aggression to the extent of accepting a much higher degree of variance. The thing is that even then, extracting value is so, so difficult. They think and tank on every single decision once the pot has any action whatsoever.

    I'll start posting some hands on here, too. Again, though - I'm by no means throwing my arms in the air or anything like that. I do voluntarily play the games there and I do know that regardless of anything else, it's making me much better. I honestly haven't tilted off even half a stack on one hand during that entire ~10k I'm referring to. I just removed that from my repertoire at these stakes. I've had KK vs T6o preflop with a TT662 board runout. I've had *several* all in split pots. Several. I've been checkraised 2.8x on the river clearly beat and folded. I've just done disciplined things that I never would have before. I'd like to crush these games over a decent sample, though.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    So I start that thread, you start posting in it, everything is fine and then a couple hours later you post this back in here? /smh. I guess we found out who the reasonable one is. Of course, I'm not spending any more time on this today. I'm amazed that you were ready to lol.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,392 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    Austin wrote: »
    Meanwhile, we have coaches on RIO who make $250k a year multi tabling 1kNL while working through college, teaching the game for a monthly sub of $25 or $99.

    Not sure who actually said this.

    I only skimmed this thread as I have zero interest in the non-poker tit-for-tat. But this jumped out at me.

    I doubt there are more than a handful of coaches on any training site that currently making 250K+/ yr.
  • Joseph FJoseph F Red Chipper Posts: 837 ✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    kenaces wrote: »
    Austin wrote: »
    Meanwhile, we have coaches on RIO who make $250k a year multi tabling 1kNL while working through college, teaching the game for a monthly sub of $25 or $99.

    Not sure who actually said this.

    I only skimmed this thread as I have zero interest in the non-poker tit-for-tat. But this jumped out at me.

    I doubt there are more than a handful of coaches on any training site that currently making 250K+/ yr.

    I don't see how the 500NL and 1kNL grinders on there who are consistent winners, teach Elite content at RIO, and then offer private coaching/video series aren't making near that. Of course we're talking about the best online players there are but that's what I'm saying: That's a far stretch from a $1/2 casino grinder who's spent *years* working on his game daily. Literally.

    Like you, I've grown pretty tired of the non poker tit for tat, as you put it. Just had a nice +BI session and am keeping my nose to the grindstone. As for RIO - I'm definitely a "student" of RIO as I've been the #1 monthly poster more than once, have subbed there for several months in the last year, and read/post HH's on there more than anywhere. That plus using GTO+, and then studying aspects of exploitative play here, is where I'm at. I'm going to pick up a monthly to either here or RIO again, as well as add a rec network to my volume.
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