Bluff or Check with Nut Blocker?

MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
edited September 2018 in Online Poker Hands
partypoker - $0.04 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 50 BB
SB: 260 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 109.4 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 100.2 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 173.4 BB (VPIP: 11.76, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (CO): 94.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ks :Tc

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) :7c :Qs :6s
BB bets 3.2 BB, Hero calls 3.2 BB

Turn: (12.8 BB, 2 players) :As
BB bets 6.2 BB, Hero raises to 19.8 BB, BB calls 13.6 BB

River: (52.4 BB, 2 players) :Kh
BB checks, Hero checks

[spoil]BB shows 6:diamond: 6:heart: (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 92%, Turn 75%)
Hero mucks K:spade: T:club: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 46%, Flop 8%, Turn 25%)
BB wins 49.8 BB
[/spoil]

My Notes on this hand:
Hand *17683xxxxxxx84

Preflop

Open-raise with KTo in CO good. High fold equity (Probability of good hands in 3 later positions low). When SB calls, lots of pocket pairs, suited aces, suited connectors /broadways or offsuit broadways.

Flop
- Leading range of SB:
Value: Q6s, Q7s,76s,QTo/s, QJo/s,KQo/s,66,77
Bluffs: 89s,58s, any flush draw
- Decision to float: Lot of turns change perceived ranges. My range is disguised by calling. Able to represent certain runouts.

Turn
- SB leads again. Any Qx one pair likely checks (flush completes, Ace high gets there)
- Decision to raise: I have the nut blocker and a gutshot, which gives me a ton of equity vs his hole range. A baby flush from SB not happy about this raise as well as two pairs or sets. After he calls, straight draws arent likely to be in his reraise-call range.

River
- King doesnt give me sdv, cause of the range I gave him on turn and river. When checking back, expecting to loose 90%+.
- Decision to check: Marginal, shoving better play. I might sometimes win vs Qx single.

EV of shove:

- BE: 57%

Hands that likely fold: 67s, Q7s, Q6s, 66, 77
--> Combos: 13

Hands unlikely fold: 54ss,57ss, 78ss,79ss,7Tss,89ss,T8ss,JTss,J9ss,
--> Combos: 9

He folds 13/22 --> Folds 59% of hands on river

Shove slightly +EV depending on his calling range. If he calls with sets, its -EV, if he folds out baby flushes its clearly +EV.

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think you give micro stakes too much credit with the ability to fold baby flushes, 2 pair, and sets.

    Honestly because you give Qx and FD in villains range, I strongly dislike floating the flop. I understand the play in a vacuum, but wouldn't recommend it at this level.

    Just stick to heavy value bets and great fundamentals. Floating here imo is just a spew at 4NL.

    With that said I think your range analysis is excellent.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 294 ✭✭✭
    I like your analysis but have to disagree with the hands they fold. IMO they are never folding 2pair+.
  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 104 ✭✭
    I like your analysis but have to disagree with the hands they fold. IMO they are never folding 2pair+.

    He might. When he is folding his two pairs and calling with sets, it is -EV for me to shove.

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