top 2 on very wet board...got myself into a bit of a pickle

EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭✭
edited September 2018 in Live Poker Hands
Playing 1-2 in a pretty loose game....Normal potish raises tend to go 3 or 4 way....with 4 players who are pretty sticky preflop, and on the flop....

Villain...bought in for 300,...pretty loose preflop, seems sticky on the flop. Raises a fair amount pre flop but limp/ calls a lot as well. seen him raise AQs..from early seat...called a 3 bet with JJ, and on low 2 tone board call the flop shove (willing to get it in and gamble a bit)...Bit aggressive into weakness, other then loose flop calls does not seem to do anything really bad (and these might be good floats). Don't know if he plays draws fast but given everything else he might???.

Villain 2 not too important, at least by the major decision, but she bought in for 500, very loose preflop....will donk out 2nd pair weak top pair and keep betting small flop turn and river, will fold to a raise though it seems to pain her.

Hero...probably seen as very tight. 3 bad players at the table, villain 2 and two young kids, all just happen to be to my right, so I've been iso raising a bit almost always the bottom of my range and hitting bad board after bad board...So ive been giving up a lot or one and done a lot....

effective stack are just under 300 with my stack being the short stack...

Hero is on the btn... :Qh:Td ....

Utg limps Villain 1 limps early , villain 2 limps mid, Loose kid limps HJ, and I limp along...sb and BB come along..

I think raising would be fine, with a better rep I might, but going 4 or 5 way with QT off in a bloated pot, is very likely....so I prefer to limp here use my position....


Flop 7 way....$13......

:Qc:Ts:9c

Villain 1 bet 20, villain 2 calls....folds to me, I make it $75...folds to villain 1 who shoves, and villain 2 folds...

AFter I call the 20 the pot is 73 and I'm raising 55.... (I think ok bet size???)
Villain 1 shoves...I'm showing a lot of strength here...


.

I think I got myself into a marginal, calling spot....at the time I estimated I need a bit less then 40%...equity.....I have to call about 215 to win 610 .....which works out to be 35%...(so I was a bit high)...

Base assumptions are the over bet is a strong hand....less likely a draw, ...but given villain 1 its not a very confident read..

If he shoves all his A high K high (also an inside straight draw), his QJ Jt hands,and other flush/ with staigfht draws...as well as Q9s, and T9....As well as his hands that crush me 99 KJo, Q8s..... I have around 40%, equity.. but does he shove all these draws after I've showed so much strength...

Basically given stack sizes, my $75 raise puts me in a rough spot (probably marginal call maybe marginal fold yuck)...can I play if differently.

I don't think raising preflop is the easy answer, I really can't estimate that this board going to come down, gets over bet, and called...and then I'm in a tough spot as my reads on the original raiser are not clear as to how he will proceed with draws...

Should I raise bigger on the flop, commit myself..to easy stacking off...say make it 100 over his $20 bet....charge more if villain 1 or 2 wants to chase.....

Should I raise less and make it an easier fold...but give better odds on this drawy board..





Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why not call flop? This is basically like a bomb pot being 7 ways. Top 2 without any blockers is not a great hand to have. Top 2 is a good hand, but not one I'm likely to raise the flop with vs an over bet into a 7 way pot.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think just to get to 40% your assuming a wide pushing range. He is showing more strength with 3 betting the flop.

    Against hands like J8s, KJ, TcJc, T9s, AcTc, 99, Jc7c, etc I'm only getting around 25%. You really have to throw in a bunch of AcXc, and KcXc even then I'm getting to around 38%. Have to keep in mind he limped in, so not giving a crazy range.

    These are the folds that boost your win rate.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2018
    Try thinking first, acting second, instead of the reverse. Know your r/f from your r/c, et al.

    And "showing strength"? C'mon bro.
    ***
    Two posts of late bound together by one theme: what i do makes sense wait this isn't solitaire? Mom!
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    @persuado so just to tease this out...you see this as a r/c? Given the description given of villain, I am calling here.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This hand could be an essay, but i want to avoid that. Basically, don't turn the best value hands in your range into bluffs - that is a criminally inefficient use of equity.
  • Joe HastingsJoe Hastings Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    Raising top two on a board as wet as this is not something I would do. In fact this is exactly the kind of flop Doug Polk advises to check or call two pair with. At this point QT has showdown value, but can't stand much pressure on this board.

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