Hand 18

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Hand 18 Preflop: first to act, MP1 limps in and it folds around to the SB who raises to 4BB. It's rare for SB to raise and he has the second largest stack. SB, a loose pass, wouldn't raise with KQs or ATo but would have raised with TT+. He’s on a 5% (62) range AA-TT,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs. MP1 calls and I call with AsJs.

Flop :Kd:Qh:Ts

I have the nut straight and unless the board pairs or comes up with three of one suit, I win, and it now becomes about extracting value. SB’s range connects with the flop as a Broadway pair, a set or as a gut shot or 2crd bckdr flush. He's not happy with the latter and is worried about me having Broadway cards that are over his, say me pairing a K while he paired a Q. If he has a set, hopefully, then he is slightly more confident. Regardless, he is likely to keep calling to showdown. If he starts betting he has a straight draw. I only need to worry about the flush, and the next card might alleviate that worry.

Villain continues on with 100% (33) of previous. First to act, SB checks, I raise 10BB, and loose pass in MP1 calls; SB calls.

Turn :9h

Villain could now be on a heart flush draw but I’d have to shove to get him to go away. SB checks and MP1 folds. SB opened with a rare raise and then went back to being a call station. The most likely scenario is he is slow playing pocket aces and is now nervous about them holding up. I remove AQ from his range and he continues check-calling with 73% (24) of previous, AA-TT,AKo,AKs.

River :Kh

Uh-oh! SB is representing a full house and goes all in. He could be foolishly representing a FD by thinking I’m not paying attention. I have no choice but to call. My range has 30% equity and my hand has 67%. I’m comforted by the fact that SB opened with a raise and might have aces. My hand and range equities remain the same, not bad. He would not go all in with JJ, but would do so with QQ, KK or AK. I remove JJ and TT from his range and he continues with AA-QQ,AKo,AKs.

I am risking 27 BB for the chance of winning 87 which is about 3 to 1 pot odds. If I win I become tied with the chip leader which means I greatly improve my chances of a significant jump in prize money.

Only 3 combos can beat AJ and AJ beats 10. I'm ahead of 66% of their range.

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