Overbet shove with overpair on turn in 3bet pot OOP

sb08icsb08ic GermanyRed Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.02 (101 bb)
CO: $2.57 (129 bb)
BU: $3.81 (191 bb) - 20/14 over 52 hands
SB: $0.47 (24 bb) - 94/8.6 over 38 - can have any2
BB (Hero): $2.15 (108 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with J J
2 players fold, BTN raises to $0.04, SB calls $0.03, Hero 3-bets to $0.20, BTN calls $0.16, SB calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.60) 6 5 T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.29, BTN calls $0.29, SB folds

Turn: ($1.18) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.66 (all-in), BTN calls $1.66

Preflop:

BU - Calling Range AJ, AQ, ATs, KJ, KQ, KTs, QJ, QTs, 55-JJ, T9s-54s, J9s-64s - 153 combos (discounted) - vs. equity 72%
SB - 94 % VPIP - can hold any2

Flop:

73% Equity vs. BU-Range - 132 combos (discounted)

Cbet calling range vs. ½ pot bet - 55-JJ, 65s, 76s, 87s, T9s, ATs-JTs, (AJs-QJs only diamonds with BDFD), (AQs, KQs diamonds, clubs, spades overcards+BDFD), T8s, 86s, 64s, AQo (weakest calling hand with just 2 overcards) - 81 combos discounted - 69% Equity vs. Range

I think he will get away from 3rd pairs and worse here and will continue every 2nd pair+, Broadways with BDFD and maybe AQo as weakest calling hand for 1 street with 2 overcards

Turn:

vs. calling range still 65% equity

Now I asked myself why I wasn’t just value betting half pot here again. I think at the table I thought when I’m betting here and get raised I have to call anyway, would be a pot of 84bb with 55bb left
(84+55) : 55 ~ 2,5:1 ~ 28,5% needed equity

even if he raises me only with JJ, TT, 66, 55, T8s, 86s, 65s, ATs and 87s as semibluff with middle pair+OESD I get around 31%.

so if I bet here half pot I think I would have to call (but with a bad feeling about it).

Evaluation of overbet push:

villain has 75 discounted combos left
folding range - AQo, AQs, KQs, AJs-QJs, T9s, 99, 77, 87s, 76s, 64s, KTs-JTs = 53 combos
calling range - 22 combos

equity vs. calling range = 21,80%
foldequity = 53/75 = 70,6 %

bb won if V folds = 56 bb
bb won if V calls and win = 139 bb
bb lost if V calls and loose = 83 bb
ev = (56 * 0,706 + 139 * 0,218) - (83 * 0,782) = +4,93bb

Are my assumptions and calculations somehow correct or did I miss something huge?

Thanks for your comments :-)

Comments

  • MrNiceMrNice Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    PREFLOP

    Vs a tight opponent you can discount any weak sc as 65s. He might also fold out offsuit broadways.

    FLOP

    The 1/2 pot is a good size. You keep lot of weaker hands in his range. Because he can call with a big part of his preflop range, you might bet bigger (2/3 or 1 Pot).

    TURN

    Overbet seems to be the best option. Any rivercard besides a 3 or a Jack is bad for you or you loose him. If you bet 1/2 pot again, the pot is on river about 2$ and you have 1$ behind. An other option could be a check-raise, but it is risky cause he might check back draws or weaker pairs. As said, there is no good card on the river to value bet with certainty to get called by a weaker hand. Any higher broadway kills your action or improves him to a two-pair. Any 4 or 7 might give him a straight or two pair.

    You could also check-call there. It is very dependent on your villain, but most likely he checks back with his one pair hands or pair and draw. I would only check if he would be very aggressive and overvalue Tx on the turn.

    I disagree on your assumption that he can have two pairs in his turn range. Since he is a tight opponent, it is very unlikely that he has 65s or T8s in his range. Sets might also raise the flop cause it is very likely he gets called by you.

    In conclusion, an overbet is the best option in my point of view. It is difficult to be balanced in that spot if he is interested in that. Would you really shove AK, AQ or a almost 0% equity bluff there? I doubt it.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 273 ✭✭
    The board is kind of scary and way better for a BTN calling range. I dont mind the flop bet but I would check the turn. He can have all the sets, 2pairs and even some straights. By shoving you only get called by better hands since there is no draw out there you can possibly represent. Btn could even trap JJ+ sometimes to keep the SB in the pot.

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