Aces Up On a Backdoor Flush Board

RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 301 ✭✭✭
Hero and Villain have played together every month or two for eight plus years or so. Villain is wide preflop, and active post-flop, liking to raise flops that miss PFR range and bet when checked to on flop and turn. He is also pretty sticky because he always assumes I have nothing and am making a play at the pot. Hero has been at the table for maybe 30 minutes and has been active, due to picking up several good hands, but hasn't shown anything down. H had run his stack up to ~400 and V covers.

Villain limps $3 in MP. Hero limps SB with :Ac:8h . Harmless tight passive BB checks.

Flop $9
:8d:7c:4h

Hero bets $10. Villain calls. He is super wide here. He can have a straight, all sets, top two, any pair, pair plus gutshots, naked gutshots, OESD, and I think he will even float here with a decent amount of QT, KQ type hands, especially if he's got a BDFD with it.

Turn $25 after rake
:Ad

Hero checks. Villain bets $20. Hero raises to $75. Villain thinks for maybe 20-30 seconds, then calls. I decided to checkraise, because I think he will bet just about all of his range if I do, and call with his A6/A5, any of his hands that picked up a flush draw, and probably even hands like 76. He can still have sets and two pair here, but I think he's usually going to make at least a small raise with a straight.

River $175
:Qd

Both parties have about $300 behind. Do you bet, and if so how much?
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Comments

  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    So let's use "Villain is wide preflop, and active post-flop, liking to raise flops that miss PFR range and bet when checked to on flop and turn. He is also pretty sticky because he always assumes I have nothing and am making a play at the pot", and then combine it with the action. Limp fest, ranges are uncapped, but it's not AK, AQ, ect. Flop comes that, and hero leads. You are uncapped, but you don't have KQ, Q10. That's stupid to bet that in a limped pot, yet you bet pot, which LOOKS like top pair. Why does it look like that? Straights check, 2 pair and sets have really strong hands but don't really need to protect that much, but you slap the ole pot sizer on em. You look like exactly what you have: a vulnerable hand that wants to take it down now. He calls. He can have anything, overs, but not great overs, ect, that plan on taking it away from you. I'd call wide if I was him too.


    Turn the A. You check, and he bets it, maybe hoping to represent it, or perhaps looking to fold out your random dumb "lemme stab at this pot with 45ss" bet. Look at the sizing. 20 into 25. Almost another pot sizer. To me, this sizing and given the action probably at this point, make's me think he has a wide range of hands, but most likely nothing that strong. He's trying to just fold out you "stab", or perhaps charge you. When you check-raise, it's all about if he think's you doing it wide with hands like 76. If you think he'd call you down with a hand like A10, or TP, you gotta go for thin value on the river. Pick a size that this guy can call with worse, but is also suspicious. This might even be a perfect spot for an over bet, if he's the type to call down with a worse 2 pair or top pair. Other than that, I think a nice 2/3rd bet is in order if he's the type to just "wanna see it". If you think he will bluff at it, but won't call with worse, check and call. If you think he's the type that will raise a weak bet, bet $75 again with the intent to call off a raise or a jam. I'm sure you can math out the "right" play based on tenancies and range, but I cannot be bothered.

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