Shove with middle pair nut flush draw on flop

Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
edited September 2018 in Online Poker Hands
Hey guys, curious of other opinions on this hand

online .10/.25 no limit 6 seater fast fold

Preflop

folds to MP (14.85) who raises .62
CO folds
Hero(43.87) 3 bets 2.25 from BTN A♦️Q♦️
SB (53.37) calls
MP calls

Flop

Q♥️2♦️K♦️

checks to Hero
Hero bets 4.49

SB raises 11.23

MP folds

Hero goes all-in

SB calls A♥️K♣️

Turn 6♣️

River J♣️

Was this too aggressive on my part?

small blind called the 3bet so i figured he was holding maybe 10’s+/AK at best

only hand i was worried about was KK’s and i figured if he hit his set he would’ve either led out the flop or raised larger, it was just above a min raise. i know he didn’t have trash so i figured he had made a pair and had AK

did the math on my hole cards against his on that flop and i had 43% equity so the shove was +EV if my math is correct. curious if there’s other lines i could’ve taken that would’ve been higher EV that I didn’t think of. i was thinking about just calling but i had middle pair top kicker with the nut flush draw so i wanted to either get him off his pair of K’s or commit and draw him out, cause i had a 36% chance of hitting my heart by the river. I knew with the raise he had made that if I called I wouldn't have a large enough stack to make sizable bets on both the turn and river assuming I improved, so I went with the shove.






Comments

  • OccamTheOtterOccamTheOtter Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    So the question you could ask yourself is "Is SB ever folding once they check-raise the flop in this 3-bet pot?"

    What range do you think he is check-raising? What part of that range folds?

    Calling is +EV here for sure. You'll have a lot of equity, even if he has top set (~29%).

    Now, with your draw you won't need much Fold Equity to make a shove profitable, but it is worth comparing those two lines (i.e., calling vs. shoving).

    Start by answering that question about the check-raise on the flop.
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    So the question you could ask yourself is "Is SB ever folding once they check-raise the flop in this 3-bet pot?"

    What range do you think he is check-raising? What part of that range folds?

    Calling is +EV here for sure. You'll have a lot of equity, even if he has top set (~29%).

    Now, with your draw you won't need much Fold Equity to make a shove profitable, but it is worth comparing those two lines (i.e., calling vs. shoving).

    Start by answering that question about the check-raise on the flop.

    i wanted to just call, but i was worried about not having enough left behind to make something happen. cause i would’ve had about 20-25 in a 30ish pot. so i would really only have enough for 1 sizable bet when i think i could’ve gotten 3 streets out of it assuming i improved. do you think i’m overthinking my stack size here?
  • OccamTheOtterOccamTheOtter Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    edited September 2018
    No, not overthinking. The stack size definitely matters.

    So, our equity drops coniderably on the turn with one card to come. If you look at the pot odds for the turn, things aren't so great.

    If you have $25 left (just using your numbers, haven't checked myself) and $30 in the pot, you're getting 2.2:1 if villian shoves, which should be ~31% equity to call.

    Your hand against AKo here only has 25% equity if the turn bricks :7c , so you can't call.

    The pot odds on the turn and the stack sizes are concerning. This makes shoving better, because we are guaranteed to see the turn and river, but we need to know villian folds a bit.
  • OccamTheOtterOccamTheOtter Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    For the record, I'm not sure of the exact answer here. Just trying to posit some interesting questions/points to have a discussion.

    This is a multi-street EV calculation for sure where you need to compare a few different lines:
    1) shoving flop
    2) calling flop & estimating implied odds when you hit
    3) calling flop & missing and facing an AI bet from villian a high % of the time
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭✭
    CB flop smaller and check back turn.

    Do you really want to turn the strong 2nd pair into a bluff?
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    CB flop smaller and check back turn.

    Do you really want to turn the strong 2nd pair into a bluff?

    would the CB maybe have been 1/4 pot then? at that point I CB half pot, and I was drawing to the nuts on that too, so I have a fair amount of equity to his holdings, believe it was 57/43.
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    CB flop smaller and check back turn.

    Do you really want to turn the strong 2nd pair into a bluff?

    would the CB maybe have been 1/4 pot then? at that point I CB half pot, and I was drawing to the nuts on that too, so I have a fair amount of equity to his holdings, believe it was 57/43.

    You bet almost PSB on flop not 1/2. I use 1/3 CB in this spot

    when you bomb flop and then bet turn I doubt you have 57% equity vs his continuing range
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    edited September 2018
    kenaces wrote: »
    kenaces wrote: »
    CB flop smaller and check back turn.

    Do you really want to turn the strong 2nd pair into a bluff?

    would the CB maybe have been 1/4 pot then? at that point I CB half pot, and I was drawing to the nuts on that too, so I have a fair amount of equity to his holdings, believe it was 57/43.

    You bet almost PSB on flop not 1/2. I use 1/3 CB in this spot

    when you bomb flop and then bet turn I doubt you have 57% equity vs his continuing range

    pot when i made the bet was 7.72, so slightly over half pot. I had 43% against him, he had 57%. Are you ever worried that 1/3 pot is just begging for a call? I'd float against about any bet that small? Just curious why that particular bet sizing
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭✭
    pot when i made the bet was 7.72, so slightly over half pot. I had 43% against him, he had 57%. Are you ever worried that 1/3 pot is just begging for a call? I'd float against about any bet that small? Just curious why that particular bet sizing

    Sorry I missed that it was 3 way to the flop in which case I wouldn't even bet the flop with your hand.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You lack reasoning as to why you are betting. Your cards matching shapes with the board is not enough
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    You lack reasoning as to why you are betting. Your cards matching shapes with the board is not enough

    so i’m basically way overvaluing my flush draw here?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    I hesitate to answer that question, but in a way, yes.

    would you mind elaborating? I can definitely see how in this particular scenario Id be overvaluing it considering i’m in a 3bet pot going 3 ways with a middle pair being all that i’d made at that point.

    reason for the betting was that I had a great draw and wanted to extract some value from that early in the hand, i thought with the size of the shove i’d have a decent amount of fold equity and even if he doesn’t fold i had 12 outs to improve to a hand that beat what i had put him on by the river so that’s ~48%.

    sorry if this is a dumb question or anything I’m just really looking to improve so any extra insight would be great. was there something else i should be thinking about here?
  • Robert PattonRobert Patton Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    pot when i made the bet was 7.72, so slightly over half pot. I had 43% against him, he had 57%. Are you ever worried that 1/3 pot is just begging for a call? I'd float against about any bet that small? Just curious why that particular bet sizing

    Sorry I missed that it was 3 way to the flop in which case I wouldn't even bet the flop with your hand.

    no problem! so you would’ve checked behind to see if you drew out and went from there? only reason i did bet was cause i was ip against them both
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭✭
    reason for the betting was that I had a great draw and wanted to extract some value from that early in the hand,

    what worse hands calling you on the flop?

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,367 ✭✭✭✭
    kenaces wrote: »
    pot when i made the bet was 7.72, so slightly over half pot. I had 43% against him, he had 57%. Are you ever worried that 1/3 pot is just begging for a call? I'd float against about any bet that small? Just curious why that particular bet sizing

    Sorry I missed that it was 3 way to the flop in which case I wouldn't even bet the flop with your hand.

    no problem! so you would’ve checked behind to see if you drew out and went from there? only reason i did bet was cause i was ip against them both

    I would dealy CB most turns if no one leads
  • obliviusoblivius San FranciscoRed Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    ask yourself... what worse hands call the all-in? Not many folks are folding TPTK to a shove... You had 11 outs to the nuts which isn't bad but against his shove calling range it may be a race at best. I haven't seen anyone say what's his flop check-raise range/shove calling range. That's really the bottom line here.... It's more likely a better line to FCB smaller as said, call the raise and see what happens.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
    I also like to check behind on flop here. Since you don't have a value hand yet, but you have showdown value, this plays great as a check. JJ will not call here, and Qx would be super rare given preflop action, except for maybe KQs which is beating you.

    Putting this hand into your checking range protects the range and adds deception when you bink your flush.

    If the board gave you NFD plus broadway gutshot, I'd consider bluffing. What do people think if the board is :Kd :2d :Jh ?

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