Hand 21

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Preflop: After Spewy LAg in EP3 opens to 3BB, I am the only caller. 3BB is a modest open for Spewy LAg. I am in the CO, with AQo, and I have a Solid TAg image. I do think Spewy would open with ATo, A5s and JTs; 28% (345) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A5s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s.

Flop :Qc:6s:4s

I have a SPR of 7 so virtually no commitment to this 8.3BB pot. The same can be said for Spewy. He would check a nut flush draw and QQ but not TT. TT and below would be cause for aggression from a Spewy LAg. I keep him on every SC that involves spades, drop all his pairs TT and below and I keep him on off suit Broadways that contain queens. He does not have Q4, Q6 or 64o. He would have check-raised AA, KK, AKs and AQs so he comes off those combos. What remains is 3% (36) of previous; QQ-JJ,AQo,KQo,QJo-Q9o. And, 30 of those combos are worse than my hand, only one combo beats me, QQ.

Spew check-calls my 3B

Turn :4h

Spew check-raises my 7BB bet and this is a bluff most of the time. He doesn’t have TT or Ac4c but he might be bluffing with AsJs which doesn’t beat me. He’s bluffing with 100% of previous and I call. My equity improves to 83%.

River :Jh

Spew checks and I apply pressure with a bet of 13BB

Spew would bluff with a check-raise if he has gone completely on tilt.

If still in control of all his faculties, then Spew would not call with worse hands, he would be forced to finally fold.

I would make this bet.

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