Hand 22

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Preflop I am UTG with JJ and it folds around to a Solid LAg on the button who calls. This is the first hand I’ve chosen to play since the table formed so I am likely to have a tight image. I know from previous experience that the BU is not overly aggressive.

Blinds are going up in 9 minutes which is probably one or two hands from now. This puts the Weak TAg in the BB, with only 8BB, under a lot of ICM pressure. For them this is a push/fold situation, having only eight BB and an M Ratio of 1.6, they are very committed. ICMIZER shows that they have a positive $EV for a very narrow range (6.8%) 66+,AJs+,AQo+. If I were them I’d be risking it all on a somewhat wider range 66+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+. Only a bit wider since it is now another full orbit before they have to put in 1.5 blinds; but a slightly wider range because the blinds are going up soon.

The Solid TAg on the BU calls my bet with a range appropriate to the position, but only calling, makes it a capped range 21% (256) TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s My jacks have a 74/26 advantage over this range. The blinds fold and I am heads up against the Solid TAg before the flop.

Flop :Kc:8h:6h

Villain may now have TP or be on a 4-card flush draw. He bets less than half the pot and this suggests a semi-bluff that hopes I fold. He may still be on a draw or now have MP or pairs 22-TT. A set would thin-bet to keep me in the hand. The bottom of his range would not have bet, so his range becomes 37% (67) TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. This includes KJ, 99, Th9h. Villain is not overly aggressive, as expected.

I have only the strength of my jacks but have kept hand equity advantage 64/36. A check-raise from me would be unexpected and might get a fold, but I call.

Turn :2c

My check-call tells him that my hand did not improve on the flop. And 2c is unlikely to have helped my range. These two actions encourage an aggressive bet from the BU. He is tight so I take him off of any AXo and keep a lot of the previous range. He continues with TP, flush draws but not MP or total air; 16% (67) 88,66,KQo-KTo,KQs-K9s,97s,86s,75s,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah7h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,5h4h,5h3h,4h3h.

My hand equity is down to 31% against his range. I check, he bets and I fold. I was getting 1.3 to 1 pot odds. His range has 42 combos that beat JJ and 25 that are worse than JJ.

I would not have folded here myself, but at least now I know I should around 70% of the time.

Had I called the turn, certain river cards would allow me to check-call a river bet. If the river bet gave 2+ to 1 pot odds I would check-call with river cards offering greater than 33% equity for my hand; 2d, 2s, 6c, 6d, 6s, 8c, 8d, 8s, Jh, Jd, Kd, Ks.

I'm not raising in this situation because I need to hang on for that 8th place money which is an $8000 boost or 33% increase. There is a player with only 8BB and the blinds are about to go up.

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