ATs 2/5 valuesize

Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
edited September 2018 in Live Poker Hands
SB: $360; older gentleman, we've seen him checking down AK on a K89 9 9 board 3-ways, passive preflop.
HJ: Hero covers

Folds to hero
:As :Ts
Hero raises to $20

CO calls
BUT calls
SB calls

FLOP $72
:Ks :Td :9h

4 Checks

TURN $72
:Ks :Td :9h :Th

SB Bets $45
Hero Raises to $140
2 Folds
SB Calls

RIVER $350
:Ks :Td :9h :Th :Qd
SB Insta Checks
Hero?

His manner excludes Jx+ from his range - he is not nutted. What sizing do you like? He's left with ~$200 on the river.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,130 -
    If he really checked the river with AK on a K8999 I'm not sure I'm in love with your turn raise. I'd shove the river to push him off the chop.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭✭
    :KH: :QH: , :AH: :KH: and :TC: :AC: are the hands you think are most likely for V to make it to the turn with, but I think that your mistaken. V has those hands for sure, but I'm not entirely sure he leads those hands, and he actually should have a fair amount of Tx, and some straights as well. If he did river a straight, based on the way he played K8999 which is basically the nuts, never leading, he ideally shouldn't really be betting the turn. I guess he can be making a mistake, sure, with the "lol I got TP and the NFD/gutter, but his hand only stands to improve, yet doesn't really wanna see a raise like you put in. Up to you if you think he will fold Jx hands. This is why @TheGameKat said your turn raise is actually a bit questionable from a V who is so passive who is now leading in a 4 way pot. Yeah, you turned a good hand....but against this particular V who is now leading...you actually didn't really. And your not even repping a FH, as a set, 2 pair, or a straight really needs to bet this flop. Your repping exactly what you have, Tx. So on the river, maybe your saying you have JT, but that's about it.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 288 ✭✭✭
    I would not bet here. Tough to get value from a worse hand, and a player like this can definitely have T9, 99, QT, or Jx.
  • Baby_SharkBaby_Shark Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
    A few more "live reads".

    After flipping over AK (about one orbit prior) on the aforementioned board, he looked sheepish, as though he were trapping the whole way, and the player to his right ribbed him for it. They seemed friendly.

    On the river Q, he gave me a "don't you dare bet, boy, or I'll reluctantly call" type of stare. I didn't think it was a reverse tell.

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