hand 23

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Preflop, I am on the BU with 69BB holding Th9h and seen as a TAg. The Weak TAg in the CO with 70BB opens to 3BB and the assumption is that this is a steal and I should put him on a wide range. And, the lack of 3Betting so far may be encouraging his attempt to steal. And, infrequent 3betting at this table may make a re-steal worth me trying. Aggressive betting after the flop is an option since CO is making errors postflop. The CO is the big stack in this hand. The small stack comes after me but him having an M Ratio of 19 means he is not under a lot of stress. CO is on a range of 34% (399) AA-22,AKo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s. This range includes all PP, and SC starting with 43s, 64s Q8s and K7S, plus a lot of Ax suited and unsuited. My hand vs. his range is 44/59 and my hand doesn’t often improve post flop, 33/65.

I call, SB folds and BB calls.

The BB is spewy, has an M of 41 and will be first to act postflop. In absence of a raise, BB gets a capped range of 36% (393) JJ-22,AQo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s.

Flop :8h:6s:3d

I have a gut shot, a bckdr FD and two over cards. Its unlikely the flop helped any of us and the two checks before me, confirms this. The CO’s range has the winning equity against my hand and BB’s range 54/27/19. The CO would check-call JJ but not KsQs or 77. His range becomes 26% (94) of previous AA-88,66,33,A8o,98o,87o,A8s,K8s,Q8s,T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,75s,54s.

I bet 4BB and BB calls. When an aggressive spewy LAg starts calling a lot, I’d say that caps their range so I put BB on marginal holdings. I put him on marginal OP, slow played sets, OESD and bckdr FD; 7% (26) of previous TT-88,66,33,97s,75s,54s. He would check-raise 54 suited and he doesn’t have J8 or Ah7h.

CO folds

Turn :9d

With TP I bet 8BB and BB folds. I have BB so narrowed down that all he has is TT, 97s, 75s and 54s. He does not have K8, A6 and he would check-fold his 54 even if it is diamonds.

But if CO had check-called, he does so slightly less than half of the time. I am not ahead of his calling range. He checks-calls most rivers with this holding to induce a bet and control the pot. I would have bet this turn in hopes of getting a fold out of BB, hoping he puts me on TdJd.

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