Fold, call, or raise?

Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
We are playing 2/5 with a $350 effective stack. I have JcTc from the BB and the Villain in the HJ opens to $25, I call from the BB and a player from MP calls. We are going 3-way to the flop with a pot of $75. The flop comes AcKc5h and I check, the MP checks, and the villain bets $55. I figure I could raise to about a pot size bet getting pairs smaller than K to fold and maybe even some weaker kings (although this flop is generally good for his range). Since all in was only a bit more I shoved for $268 dollars (putting him all in). This player is relatively unknown but in a previous hand he had bet all three streets with a bluff so he likely will play out of line on occasion. Is this a fold, a call, or a raise and if so how much?

Comments

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
    So you're behind here a large chunk of the time, but you have a ton of outs that are going to give you the best hand here. His bet is a little over 2/3 pot, looks about 70% so you're getting a little worse than 2.5:1 on a call here. So you need just a little more than 25% to continue.

    SPR is 4.33 if I did the math right (325 effective after the raise / 75 pot at flop?) so you are not automatically committed here, but I am going to play this one out given the amount of outs you have to the nuts or near nuts.

    Using rule of 4/2, you've got 12 outs, meaning your 48% is well above the threshold based on the odds V is giving you. So yeah I would call.

    I wouldn't have raised here, I would have just called because you're going to hit on this hand so often, I would want V to continue barreling and build a pot for me, perhaps. Given that his range fits with this board and he makes a reasonable sized c-bet, I think this is a situation where's he's ahead and I would just call him, see the next card and reevaluate. But interested to see how others approach it.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    This is a call. Your either behind or he has air. Either way, bloating this pot just allows villain to play perfect poker against you. So when you are called, you must hit. And if he has :Qh :9h .....your goose is cooked.

    Why not just call and see what the turn action brings. This could even be a sexy spot for a check in the dark (which I don't do often for good reasons). But it'll tell you exactly where the villain is in the hand.
  • MistaCrowleyMistaCrowley Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    I agree with the others. You have a hand you could consider an open raise with if checked to you, but with a lead raise it’s only a call. I’m curious. What was the outcome?
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Did you want MP to put money in?
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,635 -
    It is straight forward to assign a calling range and see what kind of equity you have when called. You can assign some fold equity if you were to commit on the flop with a check-raise. This is your base line hand value.

    My guess is you basically are chopping up the dead money from pre-flop if you commit on flop.

    What if you call? You might get to realize some or all of that equity when the turn is checked through, or the opponent makes a too small bet.

    You might call a bet on the turn and brick river and save some cash.

    I don't want to do the book keeping, which would be extensive, but I can see spots where you do better than just jamming in and seeing if you get there.

    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 1,241 -
    I agree with the others. You have a hand you could consider an open raise with if checked to you, but with a lead raise it’s only a call. I’m curious. What was the outcome?

    At the risk of sounding pedantic but in the hope of saving future confusion, the first bet in a betting round is a bet, not a raise. The confusion seems to arise from the fact that pre-flop we talk about an open raise, but the thing to remember here is that the blinds constitute blind bets, thus we are raising those bets preflop.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Thank you for all of your input. To Mistacrowley, in terms of my action I raised all in, he called, I missed and he had AQo.

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