Choosing hands for a bluff 3b range on the turn (with example)

Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
edited October 5 in Online Poker Hands
So I was chatting this hand through with a friend and we hit a mildly interesting impasse:-

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.82 (118.2 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $8.73 (87.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $23.25 (232.5 bb)
BTN: $10.10 (101 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Td Qd
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) Kd 3s 8s (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) Jd (2 players)
Hero bets $0.81, BTN raises to $2.30, Hero calls $1.49

***

Villain was 42/33 in 36 hands - most likely a normal player whos run a bit hot in the tiny sample I have, but could potentially be too loose pre.

When I played this hand I saw I had direct pot odds on the raise, and just flatted. During review it occurred to me that if I had a set I would be 100% 3betting it on this board, and as such I need some bluffs. An OESFD is the highest equity unmade hand and I think is definitely a potential bluff.

My friend disagrees with me for a few reasons:-

- He thinks I have too much equity to turn this hand into a bluff
- He thinks I block too many of villains potential bluffs

I can't argue with those points. But what I'm having trouble with is

a) should I value those points over having strong high equity semi bluffs?
b) if not QTdd, then what am I bluffing with?

Thanks for reading, I'll add some more stuff in later when I've had more of a play with flopzilla and GTO+.

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,615 -
    edited October 6
    You continuation bet
    :Qd :Td

    OOP on

    :Kd :3s :8s

    What logic did you use to say this is a hand I should fire in this spot?

    Seriously, answer that question.

    Consider the logic that you just used to justify the OOP c-bet, what other hands does that apply to in your range?

    It may be easier to state which hands in your range it does not apply to.

    While I am a big advocate of the three-straight three flush as a potential c-bet, you have one rank that brings an open-ender (Jack) and two that bring you gutshots (Ace and Nine).

    Tell me you are c-betting :9c :Tc OOP and I might listen to your case, but even that more ideal three-straight three-flush when bet OOP is dubious.

    Check the flop.

    ----

    Turn, as played, skipping to the raise without commentary on the lead.

    When you get raised, there is $4.60+$1.55 = $6.05 and the effective stacks are about $7. Given the action, you have 15 outs if all your outs are good, and I think they usually are. That is about one third equity on a pot sized bet. You are basically free-rolling a fold here because you shove in what is going to be about 1/3 the final pot when called. When called, you will have enough equity to recover this bet but nothing more. In essence the EV of this shove is purely your fold equity if all your outs are good and you are currently behind.

    Remember, very rarely the opponent will find a way to have a nut flush draw on you with :Ad :3d or :Ad :8D: or some such. When they show up with that you are drawing much thinner and are in real trouble. That black swan event does really hurt this line the rare times it happens.

    I do not think you actually have much fold equity at all in this spot. I think he is almost always calling. You are then just firing up the variance-o-matic with a shove here.

    You want to theoretically balance bluffs with value in spots where you have fold equity. If you don't have fold equity then semi-bluffs and bluffs are just burning money.

    It comes down to how much fold equity you think you have here. The more you have, the better the shove is. I however, think it is very low, so I just see if I can hit.

    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    edited October 7
    Obviously you're a better player than me, and I'm taking that in, but I would appreciate you criticising my answer to why I'm betting the flop here because I don't see what I'm doing wrong. The reason I'm betting QdTd (and Td9d, although not Tc9c) is that I think his range looks something vaguely like this:

    https://imgur.com/a/UzA55li

    Maybe a bit tighter, maybe not. Maybe some of these hands are light 3bets. Anyway, I would quite like a lot of his PPs lower than 8x and weaker Ax with no FD or BDFD to consider sodding off. I believe the majority of my unknowns on this site are not awful, but tend towards being a bit weak/abc postflop. I don't expect a player I haven't got tagged as a potential reg/aggro player to abuse their position by 3betting me light here, and I dont expect them to float things that haven't connected at all. I do expect them to probe versus missed cbets in position about half the time, although that varies wildly between players.

    Yes, that does apply to a lot of my range, but a lot of my range doesn't have a bdfd and 3 to a straight giving me some favorable turn cards. In total I'm betting about 20-25% of my range on this flop, with about the same percentage checking then continuing against villain probing.



    Regarding the turn, I think you are right in that he probably doesn't raise turn with many hands he could fold. Which answers my original query very well, thank you.

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,615 -
    This explanation is clear. By giving a clearly defined range and a set of hands you think will "sod off" (I love the terminology) you basically have how often he will fold to a c-bet (I found about 60% folds in Flopzilla if MP+ calls)

    A $0.4 bet into $0.75 will break even at 0.4/(0.4+0.75) = 35% folds

    It is worth noting that if any pair calls then you only get 40% folds.
    Throw in anything calls with Ace highs with the :As and you are not "printing money" here.

    By these assumptions you are either in a decent ATC profit situation or a slightly ATC profit situation. This makes some sense, if 60% of the time you win the $0.75 pot, that is on average $0.45 and you are paying $0.4 to make the bet.

    Personally, I don't know how light they call we may or may not be in an ATC profit spot. Against a foldy OMC, sure I might fire this. Against anyone sticky, at the tables I would probably pass.

    What I am surprised by is this:
    Martin D wrote: »
    Yes, that does apply to a lot of my range, but a lot of my range doesn't have a bdfd and 3 to a straight giving me some favorable turn cards. In total I'm betting about 20-25% of my range on this flop, with about the same percentage checking then continuing against villain probing.

    This "back door flush + three gutty and two unders" is one of the worst hands I would consider betting with a 50% c-betting range. You find it in a 25% range c-betting range though. It makes me think you are passing up on a lot of better c-bets.

    What does this 25% c-betting range look like?

    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • Martin DMartin D Red Chipper Posts: 79 ✭✭
    Thanks for putting it in words better than I can. I do believe that against random unknowns this is a marginally +EV cbet with ATC, I just prefer not to actually bet ATC because I'm sure that some of them would notice and stick it back up me. Restricting myself to hands that have a decent chance to barrel turn helps avoid this.

    I've had to go back and recreate the ranges I was looking at on saturday because I foolishly didn't save the postflop work. Anyway, I would be cbetting something like this:-

    https://imgur.com/0tebwY2

    Incidentally I'm a bit concerned about a couple of things on this range. First, I'm super value heavy for the flop. Second, I'm betting nearly all my flopped flush draws. The one kind of leads to the other.

    I dont have a pretty picture for my Check Continue range because I dont know how to use flopzilla to inverse filter, save that then positively filter without adding a turn card. Sorry about that. Anyway, here is my checking range on the same flop

    https://imgur.com/p2rcITy

    I'm continuing here with middle pair or better, which at 71 combos is just under 20% of my original range. Not sure about weak pair with a BDFD.

    I'd be interested what you think of these ranges, as playing OOP as the preflop aggressor is what I think I'm weakest on right now.






Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file