Hand 25

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
I’m heads-up against a Solid TAg in the BB, who has been firing polarized 3Bs in order to re-steal. I open with a 2.5X bet, having Ks5s. A Solid TAg’s polarized range to 3B preflop would be a 7% mix of nut hands and bluffs AA-TT,33-22,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,A3s-A2s,65s,54s,43s. But he calls me so his range is 22% (39) TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s. My hand equity against his range, preflop, is 44/56. My combos include KTo, 99, but not A4s.

Flop :Kh :9d :5h

My 2P fires a 3BB bet which he interprets as weakness and fires a 9BB 3B, likely a polarized bet. I have to worry about him having a set (10% of his combos) or another heart hitting the board, since flush draws are 30% of his combos, but my hand equity goes sky high, 82/18. I drop nothing from his range. All his combos weaker than my hand now become bluffs. He is on 100% (40) TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s.

Turn :3h

Scare card; he could have a flush. He would bet K9 and a nut flush and continue his bluffing with any two cards containing a heart. He continues with 100% TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s. My equity remains high 78/22.

River :6c

The river card changes nothing, we are still dealing with the situation I had on the turn. If he is barreling a bluff my equity is high 85/15. If I apply the all the filters I am still at 40/60 and with just the turn filter, I am 50/50. The pot odds are at 45% so it is a coin toss. He would bet his 2P, TP, 87 but not QhJs.

He has 142 worse combos in his range and 24 better combos.

If he had checked to me on the river I would have checked back. The pot is plenty big enough considering the situation. If I win I become the big stack, while a loss would have made me the short stack in 6th place, and the money begins with 5th place.

Comments

  • Ben HaylesBen Hayles RCP Coach Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Hi Mark, glad to see you working diligently through the book. Let me offer some response to this hand.

    Preflop, I think you underestimate how many hands the villain can call with. He should not really fold much (if anything) due to the pot odds.

    On the flop, note that the villain does not 3-bet. He check-raises, which is unusual in this kind of tournament spot. I had him check-raising just 5.3% of the time, which consisted of sets, two pair combos and some draws. You assigned a 100% range to the villain, which means you believe he never check-folds, never check-calls and never leads out.

    On the turn, I agree he should bet with his entire range.

    On the river, I am down to 50 combos and I doubt a good player would bluff all-in here in this tournament spot. Half his combos are flushes and I think it is these hands that he is shoving. I don't believe we should call.

    Interestingly, if you are confident he would never check a flush on the river, you could consider shoving all-in if he checks, as he would be forced to fold out all of his hands, (straights, sets and two pair combos). This is a play that's tough to find, otherwise checking behind would be sensible.

  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Yeah! Thanks. I will give this consideration and return with comments. For now I will say that what you say makes sense. I just need some time to go back over the hand.
    Currently working on hand 26 then I'll rework 25. Great to have feedback.
  • Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
    Thinking about Ben’s response to my hand 25 analysis

    I’m heads-up against a Solid TAg in the BB, who has been firing polarized 3Bs in order to re-steal. I open with a 2.5X bet, having Ks5s. A Solid TAg’s polarized range to 3B preflop would be a 7% mix of nut hands and bluffs AA-TT,33-22,AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs,A3s-A2s,65s,54s,43s. But he calls me so his range is 22% (269) TT-22,AJo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. My hand equity against his range, preflop, is 44/56. My combos include KTo, 99, and A4s.

    Flop :Kh :9d :5h

    My 2P fires a 3BB bet which he interprets as weakness and fires a 9BB 3B, likely a polarized bet. I have to worry about him having a set (10% of his combos) or another heart hitting the board, since flush draws are 30% of his combos, but my hand equity goes sky high, 82/18. I drop nothing from his range. All his combos weaker than my hand now become bluffs. He is on 100% (40) TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s.

    Villain’s check-raise implies strength and a trap to build the pot. So he has 2P, TP, a FD, FD + OESD or FD +gutshot which is 20% (48) KQo-KTo,KQs-K9s,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,8h6h,7h6h,6h4h,4h3h. So Ben is right, a check-raise does drop the range to 20% of previous for a total of 48 combos moving forward.

    But to get down to Ben’s 5% one would have villain continuing with only sets, 2P and PP below TP with some draws. And I now see that this makes sense because villain is just one seat shy of being in the money. He would have abandoned his polarizing ways, temporarily to get past the bubble. I was too focused on his player type and did not giving enough consideration to the tournament stage.

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