Steal Attempt Turns Into Low Flush: Now What?

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
$1/$3 MGM National Harbor, Sunday evening. Sitting with $610 in front of me on the button I'm dealt 4-5 of clubs. The action folds around to me, an extraordinary rarity at this table. I saw a 9 way limped pot (I folded A3 off under the gun) just a few hands prior.

The table is very passive though, certainly folding to aggression at a high frequency without a big hand. So I saw this as a perfect time to try to steal the $4 on the table. I made my standard raise to $15 which was in line with normal table raises, nothing out of the ordinary.

I get callers out of both the blinds because I am simply unable to ever steal blinds haha. (This is a good spot for it, right? With a passive table? Both blinds were seeing a ton of flops but rarely calling raises but would be interested to hear if this is not a good spot for a steal attempt.)

Effective stacks:
Hero: $595
SB: $190
BB: $150 ish? (He had chips stacked in no discernible pattern which made it very hard to judge the stack size. Somewhere in 150 range).

In any event the flop comes out 9c - 3c - 5h, so I have picked up a flush draw and mid pair.

The action checks to me and I bet 25, just over half pot. SB calls, BB folds. Pot is now $95.

Turn is the King of clubs, so I have made my flush but Villain jacks his remaining money in there after a decent interval of deliberation.

What next? I can't see a host of holdings he would continue with that make two pair on this board. Maybe K9 but that would surprise me the way V was playing. Honestly KK would surprise me less than K9 in this spot. There was minimal 3 betting. What are everyone's thoughts here? Would appreciate feedback because I don't want to fold a flush here but I don't see what he's going all in with unless he has the flush.

Comments

  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    This is either an insta-call or a sigh-call. He can have too many hands that you are ahead of here. AK with the Ace of clubs or any king is likely. If he DOES have a higher flush....then pay that man his money (Teddy KGB style) and move on to the next hand
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
    Hahaha I thought of that when I posted the hand! He beat me.... straight up! Pay that man his money...

    So in general we don't fold flushes? Is that the gist? ;) lol
  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 364 ✭✭✭
    Crying snap call, as @BenLeewood said. Not much you can do there with that stack sizes, hope he doesnt have it or not hit on the river if hes higher flush draw.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭✭
    There's not enough money behind to fold your flush. You'd be surprised what these MGM clowns show up with (I used to play there a lot).
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,677 ✭✭✭✭
    You've to ask yourself: which hands could V shove125$ into a 95$ pot after a "scary" card ? :KC: is scary because it completes the FD and is a high card (scary for your mid PP and 9X)
    You've to call 125 to win 345$ , so you need to win 37% of the time to be +EV. If V is able to scary push for value with 2P (esp. KX) or sets, and/or push with nut FD (maybe with a pair, like Ac9h), then you're easily +EV.
    And a flush is way too strong in your distribution to be fold. You've many weaker combos in your range on turn to fold.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 9
    I don't want to say it's never about hand reading this isn't about hand reading with stacks and SPRs this low because you can fold some hands in some situations, but in this situation we're overanalyzing. You has a flush and stacks are low. Dumb it down.

    With regard to your first question, the hand probably shouldn't be played unless you think that under the conditions you have some fold equity postflop.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    I don't want to say it's never about hand reading this isn't about hand reading with stacks and SPRs this low because you can fold some hands in some situations, but in this situation we're overanalyzing. You has a flush and stacks are low. Dumb it down.

    With regard to your first question, the hand probably shouldn't be played unless you think that under the conditions you have some fold equity postflop.

    So when the heck does one attempt to steal some blinds? I want action with my premium hands and 4-5 suited is in the open raising range for button on this site. Am I missing something?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    I don't want to say it's never about hand reading this isn't about hand reading with stacks and SPRs this low because you can fold some hands in some situations, but in this situation we're overanalyzing. You has a flush and stacks are low. Dumb it down.

    Great point - if he has a flush, no worries, but he probably does not. (And did not. And I called).

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 9
    So when the heck does one attempt to steal some blinds? I want action with my premium hands and 4-5 suited is in the open raising range for button on this site. Am I missing something?

    Probably not. Strictly in terms of value, a hand like 54s gets its strength from making strong hands - flushes or straights. Not by making top pair. While it makes strong hands, those hands are also relatively rare. So the best conditions for them are when you can see a flop cheaply, implied odds are high, and multiple people are in the hand.

    Those things are obviously not true when stealing the blinds, so in that case you want some fold equity, because you're automatically behind every hand that's going to call you and the chance of making a flush or straight can't compensate for that. Having said that, 54s has about 10% more equity against a hand like AQ than 72o does, so it still could be worth stealing with. But personally I think 54s is overrated.

  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 221 ✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote: »
    So when the heck does one attempt to steal some blinds? I want action with my premium hands and 4-5 suited is in the open raising range for button on this site. Am I missing something?

    Probably not. Strictly in terms of value, a hand like 54s gets its strength from making strong hands - flushes or straights. Not by making top pair. While it makes strong hands, those hands are also relatively rare. So the best conditions for them are when you can see a flop cheaply, implied odds are high, and multiple people are in the hand.

    Those things are obviously not true when stealing the blinds, so in that case you want some fold equity, because you're automatically behind every hand that's going to call you and the chance of making a flush or straight can't compensate for that. Having said that, 54s has about 10% more equity against a hand like AQ than 72o does, so it still could be worth stealing with. But personally I think 54s is overrated.

    I understand what you're saying. I was looking it from the perspective of SB and BB being extremely passive players, I thought it would be long-term profitable to try to steal their blinds as often as possible with any playable hand on the button. I read so much about how stealing blinds is a key factor to making one's win rate go up and I figured I had a high chance to outplay them if they called.

    I'm not suggesting 4-5 is a good hand; what I am suggesting is that given their passivity, I would either get their $4 or have a good chance to take the pot down with a cbet and a double barrell. I was thinking of this as a chance to exploit their tendency to overfold.

    Whether or not this was a good play or not, is there anything inherently wrong with my thought process? I don't want to get bogged down in one example. I'm more looking for spots to pick up some easy money with marginal hands that I would normally throw away. Or if there's a serious flaw in my thought process, I want to hear that too, because I'm missing it if there is one.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your thought process seems plausible to me.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file