Hand 26

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Preflop, I am heads up, on the BU, with 55, with the big stack, against a Solid LAg who calls my 2.25BB bet. He would have 3B 99+, AJs+, KQs+, KQo. He would have folded suited 3 gappers. He is calling me with 29% (353) 88-22,ATo-A4o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K9s,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. This includes A4o and 54s but not T7o or 84s.

My hand equity against this range is good on the flop 69/31, turn 61/39 and river 54/36.

Flop :9c:7s:6h

The board is a rainbow straighty, but he has only one combo that could fill a straight, T8s. He checks calls my CB of 3BB. He is getting 3 to 1 pot odds to call. He has 134 better combos in his range and 170 worst. My hand equity is 16% against his range and improves only slightly on the turn 21% and river 26%. He would, I think, slow play his straight and his sets. The price is good for his TP, oesd+pair and gutshot+pair. I take him off MP, WP 2crd bckdr fd. and ace high. He is on 42% of previous (128) 88-55,A9o-A8o,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o,98o,87o,A9s-A8s,K9s,J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s-53s. Now he has 107 better combos and only 20 worse. He is calling with 87 and 76, but not JT or A6.

Turn :3h

He check-raises my 4BB bet to 11BB giving me 4 to 1 pot odds to call. The 3h changes things very little. My hand equity drops to 14% but would improve on the river to 27%. He has 109 better combos and only 18 worse. He doesn’t have K6. He would check-raise A8s and 54s because it allows him to put on pressure by semi bluffing the SD, FD and an over card. He continues with 100% (128) 88-55,A9o-A8o,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o,98o,87o,A9s-A8s,K9s,J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s-53s.

River Qs

He goes all in with 19BB on a scare card yes, but he only has Q9o left in his range, 9 combos. My hand equity holds at 14% and he is offering less than 1 to 1 pot odds with his bet. If I call and loose, my stack becomes 65BB and his becomes 52BB, so I maintain my big stack advantage, barely. I call and win and I am the winner of the tournament and $35,000 richer than the 2nd place finisher. He doesn’t have QhTh, A7 or JT in his range. He proceeds with everything previous, with all the bluffs and of course with the nuts; 107 better combos and 18 worse. I’m in a position to call and either win the tourney, or loose while still having some advantage moving forward.

What if River :Qh

This river is scarier, but my equity is 13.492%, essentially the 14% as before. The heart on the river adds 9 more flush combos, but I’m still likely to call him. Things don’t change that much with the heart on the river.

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