Hand 27

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
Preflop; we have all cashed and I’m on MP2 with a big stack, and I open with 2.5BB with AcTc. I get called by a Super Spewy on the BU. Super Spewy is likely on a suck-out tilt due to him recently busting some short stacks via pure dumb luck. Super Spewy plays loose, illogical and leak chips, and doesn’t consider the ICM pressure. His HUD stats confirm this, but just over 115 hands.

SuperSpew calls with 46% (606) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. This includes 33, KJo and 87s.

The blinds fold and I’m all alone with Spew.

My equity vs his range is 60/40.

Flop :Js:Ts:Td

I have a set and should think about value bets that keep Spew in the game. I bet 3BB and he calls; so far, so good. A call indicates he does not have JJ, J, or a ten. He’s on a quixotic draw, illogically proceeding with 25% (92) AA-QQ,KQo,Q9o,98o,AJs,KQs-KJs,Q9s,98s,AsKs,AsQs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,Qs8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s4s,5s4s,5s3s,4s3s.

My equity is through the roof against his range 77/23. Still though, he could suck out on me, so I must remain vigilant, not over confident. If another spade comes up, I know that Spew will be spewing.

Turn :8c

The board turns straighty. I check and SuperSpew bets 6BB (< ½ pot). The 8c only helps him with his SD combos, and if he had a made-straight then his bet makes sense as a value bet. But my equity and the pot odds mean I solider on. He is giving me >2 to 1 pot odds and my equity is currently 81% and only drops to 73% on the next card. I’m still worried about another spade on the River. Most of his winning hands come from flushes and those flushes overlap with the straight combos. So Spew continues with 100% (88) of his previous range AA-QQ,KQo,Q9o,98o,AJs,KQs-KJs,Q9s,98s,AsKs,AsQs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,Qs8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s,6s4s,5s4s,5s3s,4s3s. In my analysis Spew does not have J5s, he bets 98o if it contains a spade, but checks-back if not, and Spew most certainly bets 6s4s.

I check-raise to 16BB and Spew calls. I gave him 3.5 to 1 pot odds so him calling doesn’t mean too much because he is not the kind of player that calculates his hand equity which is at 27%. FlopZilla won’t let me assign a spade to his possible KQ holding, I can't’ figure that out but I’ll say he calls with KQ, he raises with T9 (which my line of thinking says he does not have) and he calls with QJ; but again, my approach has already eliminated his QJ holdings.

River :2h

The 2h helps not. I go all-in and get called. So, Spew has a hand, no doubt. What is it? It is any jack, but it’s not 98. If he has a straight, I loose. If he has a TP, I win. If he has an over pair, I win. My equity drops to 54/45. It’s a cliff hanger. He has 37 combos left and 17 will beat me. Good luck all-in!

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