Hand 28

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
edited October 2018 in Final Tables Workbook
I am the big stack in the BB with Th9c. Everyone is cashed so play should be a bit less tight for a while. Others have deep stacks. The jump from 5th place to 6th is not a big deal, but the jump to 4th is a 100% improvement, and it keeps going up significantly from there. With that in mind Th9c seems like a fold waiting to happen but alas, I’m a LAg in this scenario.

The big stack in the CO opens to 2.5BB. His stealing range is narrowed due to two Solid TAgs coming up next. They could call that bet easily but they have to worry a bit about me. I put the CO on 45% (551) AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s. This does not include J7o or K4s but does include Q8s and 76S. My equity against this range is 43/67, and 34/64 after the flop.

The blinds fold and I call. The two big stacks are now heads-up; ill-advised for both of us due to ICM pressure but so far very little $ is at stake.

Flop :Td:3c:2s

The flop favors his range 26/74. This is an eye-opener for me. Without this new awareness from Flopzilla I’d have been crowing about my having TP. And, shocker, after the flop my hand drops further in equity, 17/76, wow.

I check and the CO checks back. This makes me wish I’d have bet. With OPs the CO would have CB. With TP and a weak kicker the CO checks back. With KQ the CO should have CB. So, I put him on sets, Tens, TP, and OESDs 12% (59) of previous. If he had an OESD with a 2crd. Bckdr. FD he would have CB, but he didn’t. TT,33-22,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o-T8o,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s-T7s,54s.

Turn :2c

A brick. I bet thin, he calls. In spite of his equity advantage, 37/63, I think I got this, but for some reason my LAg status doesn’t kick in here. Maybe the other me smells a trap, like a set? The risk is so low for the CO that he proceeds with 100% (57).

River comes :6s

A brick, and I bet 7BB and the CO pounces with 20BB. He has the equity here 77/23, I smell a trap and I fold. He continued with 100% (57) and he pretty much wins every time with the range I gave him, which doe not include Ace-high or 65. The weakest hand I could call with would be the hand that I folded, TT229.

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