Hand 29

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
The Loose Pass in the BB calls my bet (2.2BB) and he has been defending the BB around 55% of the time. I’m in MP2 with QsJs. I think Loose Pass would attempt to re-steal with AJs and 99. But him calling and not 3-betting caps his range at 26% (318) 88-22,ATo-A7o,KJo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,87o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s.

My equity vs his range before the flop, 55/44.

Flop :9d:4s:2s

The BB check-calls my 2BB bet. Given the small stacks, and being past the bubble, in loose play territory, this is a way, way conservative action for the Loose Pass. He’s probably on a flush draw with a couple of small/medium spades. He would have check-raised an overpair. He has a fair amount of TP in his range and would have check-raised my little 2BB bet. The range I have him on eliminated KQ preflop, but if he had KQ and it was in spades, he would have led the betting. He is at 32% (99) of previous 44,22,A9o,K9o,Q9o,J9o,T9o,98o,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,98s-97s,53s,AsTs,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As3s,KsTs,Ts8s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,7s5s,6s5s.

Equity is a coin toss at 49/51

Turn :Kc

He’s got 9 combos left that have a king, and TP is likely to make him a winner. He is loose but don’t forget that he is passive too. He would slow play KsTs. According to my line he does not have 66. He could be reeling me in with A9 or any Ax of spades. Any other two spades he has are in trouble with my QJs. He’s at 40% of previous with only 36 combos but 26 of those are better than me. I am putting a lot of chips toward the chance (20%) of hitting a spade, so I’m on a semi-bluff here. Any ten gives me a straight that likely wins (9%). I shouldn’t be bluffing here more than about 30%, but I am not on a pure bluff.

My hand vs his range is 39/61

River :Ah

I have a sinking feeling. My equity vs his range is 17/83. He doesn’t have a KsQd but he does have 9 combos containing a king. He calls down with AsTs or any Ax of spades (7). He folds any 9x combo (3). All-in would have been the only chance of winning and I believe it would be more profitable in the long run although I’m at a loss as to how to calculate the win/lose rate for a shove on the river. Villain is on 72% (26) of previous 44,22,K9o,K9s,53s,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As3s.

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