Hand 30

Mark FlemingMark Fleming Red Chipper Posts: 76 ✭✭
I’m hurting from the Nit doubling-up on the hand just previous. Now the Nit is on the BU, opens to 2.25BB, there’s a weak TAg between, then me on the BB. Nit is the big stack and I’m 2nd by half with 44BB. The blinds going up is a long way off (29 min). The Nit is raising hands no more than 30% of the time. He would not be raising 54s, Q8o or A6o, even from the BU. Giving him an uncapped 21% (255) seems generous, but there I go AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s.

My equity is poor against his range 37/63 and of course I don’t improve postflop, 25/75.

Flop :Ah:9c:8s

I believe the Nit would CB AK but not A2 and would CB 97 but not 65. My choice for his range eliminated A2 and 97 preflop leaving him only AK. He continues with sets, 2P, Tp, PP below TP, but not MP. He continues with OESD but not FD. This is 44% (99) of previous AA-88,AKo-ATo,JTo,AKs-ATs,JTs,98s,76s.

His range is ahead of my hand 29/71

I check he bets modestly (2BB) I call.

Turn :7d

He checks I check, neither of us improved.

He would not have checked AA, QQ, or JJ. He would not have checked a straight. He would have bet those. He's on a set, TP, PP below TP or he’s on a draw, OESD or gutshot. He’s on 77% (61) of previous TT-88,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,98s,76s. 59 of his combos are better than my hand. I am lucky to be seeing a free card, But I’m still behind and don’t forget that. A bet by me would have folded his draws, 20 of his combos.

River :4h

I’m dead. I check, he bets 6BB. My calling is a –EV and check-raising him to 16BB is +EV because he folds. Villain is on 87% (53) of previous and will most likely win a showdown, he's on 99-88,AKo-ATo,AKs-ATs,98s. If I bet 16BB and loose then I continue on 34BB which is a plenty good shot at 4th place which gains me $2000 more. If I win, I become the big stack and have a increased shot at 1st and 2nd place which is 2X and 3X what I have now in 5th place. I call.

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