Struggles with AQ: Post the Second

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
$1/$3, MGM National Harbor, three hours into session.

Dealth AsQd on the button. The action folds to me (a rarity at this table that we saw 0 limpers) and I raise to $15. BB (different V from first post if you saw first one) calls.

V has $210 behind going to the flop; hero has about $680.

The flop comes: Q 9 5 rainbow. Villain checks and I bet $15 into the $31 pot. Villain smooth calls.

Turn is a Kh, opening a backdoor flush possibility. Villain checks again and I bet $45. Again, V smooth calls.

River is Jd, so no flush but a 10 makes a straight here. V bets $100.

How should I proceed here?

Thinking about V's range, I look at his calling range preflop as:

22-JJ (he didn't reraise jacks earlier but did 3 bet queens), any Ax holding (other than AK which I would have likely seen a three bet), 10-9+, suited or non, and suited gappers better than J9.

At the end of the day, I've got mid pair. Should I be calling here? I don't see the benefit of a raise because I think I am only getting called by better hands.

Comments

  • Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    I'm a mediocre 2/5 player at best so don't take my response as the word of God here. That being said, one thing we don't know much about is V's playing style, could be tighter or looser, and whether he bluffs or not. Anyways, If he had a simple pair or a weak K, would he make this bet on the river? Probably not since you were the PFR.
    Would he bluff here? I don't think the smaller pairs are calling the flop AND turn (except for 55) which leaves us with the medium pairs. Medium pairs like 77 and 88 might be turned into a bluff since they do not have much showdown value.
    99 has a set, TT has the straight, JJ has a set (assuming he doesn't 3 bet this hand PF and that he'd call the turn with 3rd pair+gutshot). With suited connectors, anything with a 10 beats you. Hands like QJ, KQ, and KJ, all beat you as well. If V doesn't think you have a 10, this could be a value bet fearing that you would check on this run out.
    All in all, I don't think there are enough bluffs in this V's range to warrant a call. I would personally fold and if he is dumb enough to turn over his bluff, I'd make a note of it and take that into consideration in a future pot against him.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭✭
    1. Good pre-flop sizing
    2. Good flop sizing, maybe even size up a bit to punish stations
    3. Turn. Check. You aren't getting called by worse here. This is a mistake betting. If V had J10 he got there. If V had KQ he's ahead. If V has QJ...he may call again, why most likely not. This is not a bet. Even though you are high up in your BU range, your hand isn't good enough to continue, and you won't get many folds.
    4. Fold. Unless V will turn complete air into a bluff, you beat nothing. Don't bet the turn, and probably fold the river. Sometimes run outs go from bad to worse. This is one of them. It happens. Unless you think V will just go nuts with nothing, this is a fold.
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 330 ✭✭✭
    The Heart on the flop. If we’re looking at his turn continue range, I think it’s important to know which card that was.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭
    22-JJ (he didn't reraise jacks earlier but did 3 bet queens), any Ax holding (other than AK which I would have likely seen a three bet), 10-9+, suited or non, and suited gappers better than J9.
    That's a pretty tight range for a BB flatting. Would he have K9s? 97s? 65s ? Or even wider? Or weird loose combos like Q7o or 82s ?
    Why do you elect to put him on such a range ?

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