Struggles with AQ: Post the Third

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 394 ✭✭✭
$1/3, MGM National Harbor, the third post in a series of posts about how I was unable to play AQ successfully in what was an atrocious (although mildly profitable through absolute sheer luck) session.

Dealt AQ of clubs in the cutoff, sitting with $595 behind. Every single player before me limped so I raised to $30. Button calls, and EP calls.

Going to the flop, button and EP both have about $400 in front of them.

Flop is Ah - Qh - Kd two hearts. EP checks to me, I bet $70. Button calls. EP folds. The turn is a 2d.

I fire again for $120 and button shoves all in.

I have to believe I am ahead here: button was playing pretty aggressive pre-flop, and was three-betting all his premium hands, so I've taken AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ out of his range. He had re-raised all these hands in the four hours I had been playing with him.

Reasonably I think his range preflop looks like:

22 - JJ, 10-9 J9, J10, KJ, KQ, Q10, QJ

So he certainly hits this flop in a big way sometimes, a chance he flopped a straight, and he could certainly be on some flush draws but reasonably I think I'm ahead here a big portion of the time.

Is this a call? I need to put in $180 to win the $620 pot, so I'm getting good odds, right? Any thoughts here are appreciated.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    A general comment to all three posts (one that you might know but it worth explicating):

    You're not struggling with AQ. AQ is just the hand that recurred that highlights what you're struggling with.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 394 ✭✭✭
    A general comment to all three posts (one that you might know but it worth explicating):

    You're not struggling with AQ. AQ is just the hand that recurred that highlights what you're struggling with.

    Yeah, this is a great point and I am 100% aware of that. I played atrociously this weekend in a number of spots, it was just highlighted by my missteps with a lot of good hands.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So why don't you run the numbers on your call and tell us what you find.
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    @Jordan Power , hope you don't mind me jumping in with some analysis here. If you want to do yours independent, stop reading now. ;)

    If we take the range that was assigned to villain, we see that he has a potential of 131 combos. Out of these combos, we find that there are 28 that currently beat our two top pair - these include made straights and sets. We crush all others.

    For the sake of argument, I would assume you would call if he was on a draw - so we really just have to let the board run out and take our chances.

    3oil6bkj1yn2.png


    So, for made hands, he has a 21% to be ahead at this point in the hand, with one card to come. Your call of 180 to win the 620 pot needs to be successful about 30% of the time. It's painful to make the call because all you can see are the hands that beat you. But if you believe in the range you assigned to him, it's mathematically a call.

    I am still getting used to these HH analyses, so I invite everyone to please correct my calculations, assumptions, or conclusions.



  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 394 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    So why don't you run the numbers on your call and tell us what you find.

    Good point. I will. @GGECKO I am going to run this on my own, I'll see how my numbers compare with yours.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    @GGECKO Your giving him that range after the flop? Or pre-flop? Even if this BU did just decide to flat AA-QQ pre-flop, which I've seen, I think it's unlikely that he flats AA-QQ. Maybe QQ. People are more likely to flat AK than QQ though, cause lol AK whiffles so much, but QQ always get outdrawn, I gotta get my money in while I'm ahead! Either way, your range is really weird. Where is the AK? AQ? AJs?


    Also....why are you betting the turn again? And like, if you bet this turn...dude just toss in a chip and don't think twice or don't bet the turn (which I wouldn't). When you bet this amount on the turn, you've essentially handcuffed yourself to the pot, which you know...could be OK I guess if your afraid your gonna get bluffed off the pot if you check, but then when you lay yourself a price that you cannot fold if you get shoved on...you gotta not fold when you get shoved on. But again, I'd rather not take a hand, which looks strong, but is actually just a bluff catcher on this board. Hands I'd feel a LOT better betting with (on the flop): AA-QQ, J10, AKdd, Q10hh, QJhh, JJDH (cause I block strong drawing hands that they have). On the turn, I'm only betting my AKdd, J10's, and probably still my AA-QQ, although I do think there is some merrit in checking these. I think a neat bluff hand here if the turn goes C/c is :JS: :JC: , as you allow V to have :JD: :JH: , but you block J10's, eliminating 1/2 nutted combos. While I do think this is me getting a little out of line thinking "wowie, this is a neato bluff choice!", cause I'm relying on $1/3 V's to fold potentially 2 pair...which we all know based on your post, your overplaying, so they are probably overplaying....still. I think in terms of bluffing, it would be a really cool choice to not bet turn, and then jam river with that as a bluff, along with combos of AA-QQ, AKdd, and obviously my J10s.
  • GGECKOGGECKO Washington, D.C.Red Chipper Posts: 111 ✭✭✭
    @jfarrow13 I was using the range posted by the OP. Totally agree with your comment, tho.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭✭
    Ooo didn't see that. Ya...I think OP needs to re-examine his range assignment.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 394 ✭✭✭
    jfarrow13 wrote: »
    Ooo didn't see that. Ya...I think OP needs to re-examine his range assignment.

    I need to not post hand histories in a rush before a meeting. My range for V includes AJ, AT, KTs as well pre-flop. Sorry for any confusion, I appreciate the time everyone puts in to review these and I'll make sure they're accurate from now on.

    @GGECKO I got 19.38% for V using my correct range (sorry lol). But I am still not as comfortable in the software as I would like. Can we look at this in our study session?

    So that compared to my pot odds makes this a mathematical call if I believe in the range. But to @jfarrow13's point, I don't truly trust it. I am still trying to get passable at range construction and I find myself relying solely on what I have seen a V do before and going on from there. He had a few bluffs in that range (he turned over 5-4 off on a 3 bet that folded pre flop a few orbits earlier) but he had 3 bet all his premium hands and I got to see them at showdown. That's why I took a lot of these hands out of the range.

    Regarding the turn bet, is it correct to say that checking here exercises pot control in a situation in which I could be far, far behind? If V bets, I can certainly call based on the equity I (now) know I have here. But I open myself up to inviting a shove by betting here.

    Flipping this scenario on its head, if I was in position, and V checked to me, then the bet would be more appropriate? Or am I checking back in this scenario?

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,897 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ok, looks like a good start, but you are only there half-way.

    The river changes equities, and hands that are behind, draws or not, have equity.

    You need to find the composite equity of all his hands, made and unmade, and measure that against your calling pot odds.

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