87s BU: squeeze or not squeeze?

RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭
edited October 2018 in General Concepts
Hi everybody,
Yesterday I doubt in a situation about squeezing with 87 on the BU. I'd like your point of view.

Situation: several hours in the game. Full table. Played at Viage (Bruxelles/BE), 2/2€. Description of players and table dynamic:
1 SB: weak tight, overfolding. 80BB
2 BB: weak tight, overfolding. 70BB
3 UTG: 25yo OMC. 100BB. We don't care about him.
4 UTG+1: OMC. Limp/fold often. postflop play only the top of a merged range. 100BB
5 MP: casual bad loose-passive
6 LJ: bad loose-passive. Tend to be a station if he like his hand. Made few big call with nothing (and won) and spazz-bluff (and insta muck when called) - mostly against HJ. 200BB
7 HJ: active loose player. Does not like to fold preflop. See to float 1 street with MPwK. Able to bluff, but more like bluff spazz as constructed strategy. Made some weird call against bluffs with unknown hands (other insta muck, nobody show). 150BB.
8 CO: bad loose-passive. Got stacked and tilted badly before turning himself into a station. Seems to be back on normal (bad loose-passive, a bit too straightforward postflop) after nice a pot won when he overplayed AK on a draw heavy board. 150BB
9 BU: Hero. Active aggro image (regularly 3bet pre and stab postflop), 250BB (even if I'm in neg at this point, but they didn't see or care).

Table dynamic: 7 and 8 are rather active and are here to have fun. There is few 3bet (except from Hero) - and V fold way too much against 3bet. No 4bet except QQ+/AK.

Preflop
V1: SB
V2: BB
V3 fold
V4 limp
V5 limp
V6 fold
V7 bet 12€ (standard opening)
V8 call
Hero BU :7S::8S: ??

Thoughts
In my pole 3bet range, I put sometimes - aka rarely - some low SC or suited gapers for board coverage.
  • If Hero call, there is a big chance that SB/BB/MP call as well (and maybe OMC 4) and we go MW 5-6-handed. On the other side, 87s is a hand which performs well postflop and we have position.
  • If Hero 3bet, either (10% chance?) SB or BB call and there are big chance that we are going 5-way postflop (meh!) - happens already twice in the session before - or they all fold to V7 (way too much respect to 3bet). V7 has shown little fold-to-3bet %, so is likely to call. Hard to tell if V8 would call, but he is playing rather honestly postflop anyway.

If I 3bet 40€, my bluff BE equity is 40/(2+2+2+2+12+12+40) = 36/72 = 50%.
Now I'm almost sure I can't find a fold from ALL Villains 50% of the time, so outright bluff profit is out of the question. (Even if ALL Villains fold 90% of the time - an exaggerated fold %, esp. for V7 - , we are still finding one call 53% of the time)

I can but win the hand later, using range advantage and position. But :8S::7S: provide little to no blocker, and if we need to barrel postlfop, it will be often with a weak TP, a draw (FD, OESD, gutshot) or air: I think we can barrel profitably only on a flop which either gives me great equity or is scary for Villain like a dry AXX.
Note: yes, we have range advantage going on the board. But Villains (incl. V7) don't understand that, so we need V to be scared for his hand to the board than to our range or scared for his range

At the end, I saw this as a situation where I need 3bet merged range, a range in which 87s doesn't belong, and I decided to flat.

-> Do you see other pro / contra argument for squeezing here ?
-> Do you agree about flatting more than squeezing ?

Comments

  • Fernando TFernando T Red Chipper Posts: 90 ✭✭
    I would just call, 87s is a good hand to play multiway. The biggest problem is someone try to squeeze.
  • dnoyeBdnoyeB DetroitRed Chipper Posts: 284 ✭✭
    So they are all scared of V7?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2018
    Fernando T wrote: »
    I would just call, 87s is a good hand to play multiway. The biggest problem is someone try to squeeze.
    Only V7 and Hero are able to squeeze on this table. Other will have a 2.5% 3bet range (QQ+/AK). So we don't fear to be squeezed when we flat in this situation.
    dnoyeB wrote: »
    So they are all scared of V7?
    They are not scared, but they play passively. The villains sitting after hero are just naturally overfolding, not because of V7.
  • John ValentineJohn Valentine Red Chipper Posts: 49 ✭✭
    I would just call with this. This hand can play well post flop. However I would be leery of continuing with one pair.

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