What to do spot?

uglytunauglytuna Red Chipper Posts: 109 ✭✭
I never know what to do here.

Reasons for shoving:
1) Never am I dead.
2) Option to win pot right there from someone that missed
3) Against over pair 50/50 so getting priced in
4) Will always get my equity, can't get bet off turn

Reasons for calling
1) Avoid bloating pot 65bb with only 1 pair
2) If I get called, I am 90% of the time behind or at best even
3) Re-evaluate turn

What do you do generally in spots like this? I guess I hate to loose equity, but I think the move is to call and re-evaluate turn. It sucks, but I think I have to give up the 10% equity to overs on the turn that it.

Hero = uglytuna

Seat 1: donkbreath2 (2691 in chips)
Seat 2: Rustyspinner (14854 in chips)
Seat 3: scn78 (12826 in chips)
Seat 5: Pealmann (7813 in chips)
Seat 6: IdontBluf111 (8195 in chips)
Seat 7: uglytuna (16142 in chips)
Seat 8: KidKracken (12702 in chips)
donkbreath2: posts the ante 30
Rustyspinner: posts the ante 30
scn78: posts the ante 30
Pealmann: posts the ante 30
IdontBluf111: posts the ante 30
uglytuna: posts the ante 30
KidKracken: posts the ante 30
donkbreath2: posts small blind 125
Rustyspinner: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to uglytuna [8s 7s]
scn78: folds
Pealmann: raises 250 to 500
IdontBluf111: folds
uglytuna: calls 500
KidKracken: folds
donkbreath2: folds
Rustyspinner: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d 3s 2s]
Pealmann: bets 1585

Comments

  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 92 ✭✭
    With his stack size I’m probably going all in. If we are deeper then I would advocate for a call as we can play the pot in position.
  • WannabeFarhaWannabeFarha Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    It is most definitely a tough spot as he's put in 20ish% of his stack on a board with only a few options.

    Based on a fairly tight starting range of 8% from UTG +1 with a low SPR you have about 66% equity vs their range (If I read Flopzilla correct and not backwards), and they'd only continue with about 25 of 85 combos in that range (30%), and your break even % is 65% not even taking into account your actual hand equity vs his open range you have a 5% edge on the shove.

    This however depends on his C-bet range and % of hands he is c-betting. Your hand and fold equity may be far lower say if he's only c-betting good draws, over pairs, and his 1 set possibility here, then your probably always getting called with better anyway so that changes things. Then again his c-bet is pot sized so he also may be pushing you out of the hand assuming your not holding premium with your pre-flop call of his min-raise (if hes a thinking player).

    I may be completely wrong so I hope more experienced guys chime in.
  • WannabeFarhaWannabeFarha Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    He doesn't really have the pot odds to call you on a draw but his SPR is so low he probably will if hes holding AKs, AQs, knowing he'd have you dominated on a lower hand draw with the possibility of a top pair top kicker run out also. He only has to be afraid of you having a set really.
  • Leath WLeath W Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    if you just call you need to extract additionally 8k to BE.
    given that villain has a stack of about 6k at this point it's either a shove or fold.
    i think shoving should be profitable if villain folds around 25% of the time, ignoring ICM.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,140 -
    I think effective stacks are too shallow to flat the raise pre. That's sort of the origin of why it's so difficult to play postflop.
    Moderation In Moderation

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