Giving up on that river?

AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 276 ✭✭✭
$0.30 NL - Holdem - 7 players

UTG+1: 117.53 BB (VPIP: 25.78, PFR: 19.38, 3Bet Preflop: 8.18, Hands: 622)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.84, PFR: 11.86, 3Bet Preflop: 4.27, Hands: 59,567)
CO: 165.1 BB (VPIP: 28.34, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 5.65, Hands: 316)
Hero (BTN): 195.07 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.46, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 6.11, Hands: 25,498)
BB: 96.27 BB (VPIP: 22.78, PFR: 4.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.05, Hands: 420)
UTG: 106.2 BB (VPIP: 16.46, PFR: 12.86, 3Bet Preflop: 3.82, Hands: 27,920)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :JD: :KD:

fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2.23 BB, Hero raises to 8.2 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5.97 BB

Flop: (17.9 BB, 2 players) :TD: :AD: :8C:
CO checks, Hero bets 6 BB, CO calls 6 BB

Turn: (29.9 BB, 2 players) :9C:
CO checks, Hero bets 21.93 BB, CO calls 21.93 BB

River: (73.77 BB, 2 players) :KS:
CO checks, Hero???

V is calling F and T. At this point I think his range consists of AJ-AK, T9s, 98s. I don't give him that many AT and and 88 since he would probably raise them against my small flop cbet sizing. The only hand I'm really worried about is QJcc.
When I triple barrel on this river I think the hands I put him on have a pretty tough call to make. I don't think that I have enough SDV here to check. Is this is a good river to triple barrel on? Which rivers would you continue on and why?
Thanks :)

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2018
    Put him on a range, see how your flop underbet and turn big-ish bet squeezes his range.
    Do the same about your betting range.

    See who has range advantage and pole advantage. Then, act.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 276 ✭✭✭
    edited October 2018
    I'm not quite finished yet but I already realized how much the turn favours V's range since my small F cbet narrows my range more towards draws (I would definitely bet bigger with AQ+, AT, AA, TT a lot of the time) and V has so many pair+SDs, 2pairs, straights, TP+FDs..
    Do you think it's a good idea to barrel the turn? Equities are so close together in this spot...
    EDIT: I cut down the ranges and V has range advantage. What do you mean with pole advantage?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    pole / polarized advantage is having more nutted combos in a range. This depends on board texture.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 276 ✭✭✭
    Alright, since I bet so small on the flop I don't have that many sets, strong AX or AT. I can have QJs but V has more of that in his range. To sum it up, V has pole advantage and range advantage on this board texture. As a result I should not be betting this river, right?
  • Leath WLeath W Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    edited October 2018
    I think villain's open/3bet calling range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs and AX hands which means he's going to hit something a decent amount of the time on this flop. But we definitely still have range advantage and when drawing to a nut flush it's usually not wrong to double barrel.
    When villain only calls the flop and the turn he's very much capped at TP. I can't imagine him slowplaying a set or a straight on such a draw heavy board. QJ would have definitely raised by the turn IMO.
    The river is a sort of difficult decision as I think weaker draws and second pairs would have given up to the big turn bet.
    We surely have SDV with second pair so I would not think we should turn our hand into a bluff. But any FD bricks here, the only straight the K is helping is QJ which I think would have gotten active on the turn.
    If we believe villain would only have gotten here like this with an AX holding and we believe he can find the fold button, I'd actually turn my hand into a bluff and go for a an overbet (around 80 BB).
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭✭
    Leath W wrote: »
    I think villain's open/3bet calling range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs and AX hands
    Give a concrete range.
  • SpudSpud Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
    I'm not convinced that this is a great spot for 3barrel bluffing. You are heavily blocking villain's flush draws and straight draws.

    In addition to this If you bet again, perhaps you will fold out some top pairs, but not many => by betting you aren't likely to fold out much better, and will fold out worse.

    I would check on the river, in the hope that sometimes you will win, even if this is 10% of the time I'm pretty sure the EV will be better than betting.

    Intrigued by the sizing on the flop - what is your overall strategy here. On drawy boards I'm betting bigger than this, especially with draws.
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 276 ✭✭✭
    Leath W wrote: »
    I think villain's open/3bet calling range is heavily weighted towards pocket pairs and AX hands which means he's going to hit something a decent amount of the time on this flop. But we definitely still have range advantage and when drawing to a nut flush it's usually not wrong to double barrel.
    When villain only calls the flop and the turn he's very much capped at TP. I can't imagine him slowplaying a set or a straight on such a draw heavy board. QJ would have definitely raised by the turn IMO.
    The river is a sort of difficult decision as I think weaker draws and second pairs would have given up to the big turn bet.
    We surely have SDV with second pair so I would not think we should turn our hand into a bluff. But any FD bricks here, the only straight the K is helping is QJ which I think would have gotten active on the turn.
    If we believe villain would only have gotten here like this with an AX holding and we believe he can find the fold button, I'd actually turn my hand into a bluff and go for a an overbet (around 80 BB).

    I agree that we have a slight range advantage on the flop. This changes after V is calling the flop bet. I compared the ranges and it's 50:50 (more or less). Turn is much better for V's range. I don't think V is capped at TP after calling the turn. Since I bet that large V is less inclined to raise the turn. I was thinking about an overbet on the river but V has a pretty significant range advantage to go with his pole advantage. He may fold top pairs and 2pairs once I shove but I don't think it's the right spot to do so...
  • AceFromSpaceKKAceFromSpaceKK Red Chipper Posts: 276 ✭✭✭
    Spud wrote: »

    Intrigued by the sizing on the flop - what is your overall strategy here. On drawy boards I'm betting bigger than this, especially with draws.

    Yeah that was definitely a bet sizing mistake since I would also bet bigger with my strong holdings
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭✭
    I don't get to play much online, so looking at this in a live perspective. Wondering about the preflop 3b. I like the idea of 3b merged with deep stacks. But with a VPIP and PFR spread like his I think we should expect V to continue too often. So is this better as a call on button?
  • Paul_KPaul_K DFWRed Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭✭
    So to expound on that just a bit, since I'm thinking more about it.,,

    If we expect V to mostly continue with hands we would like to fold out (AJ, KQ, TT-88), should we consider 3betting a poled range instead vs this guy?
  • AlvinLauAlvinLau Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭

    Yeah that was definitely a bet sizing mistake since I would also bet bigger with my strong holdings

    If you play your range instead of your individual hands, you'll find that actually your sizing is the preferred sizing! Bravo!
    You played the hand well on every street!

    You should only unload the clip here with flush draws that unblock villains pair and gutshot combinations on the turn, which should in totality be a very small combination of busted flush draws by the river. (This is generally true of all triple barrels with flush draws that brick.)
  • Leath WLeath W Red Chipper Posts: 53 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Give a concrete range.
    Yes, sir!
    I was thinking something like JJ-66,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+,KQo maybe. And occasionally some A5s-ish hands.
    I don't think V is capped at TP after calling the turn. Since I bet that large V is less inclined to raise the turn.

    I'm not sure how realistic the range is I assigned above but I think most people would call with a merged range like that.
    I noticed the range you assigned him is wider and includes T9s and 98s as well.
    I think if villain had ever hit a set he would most likely be re-raising on such a drawy texture. 2pair maybe as well? If not then on the flop I think he's capped at 2pair. He might be floating with unimproved pocket pairs that have some potential like 9d9h for the backdoor straight and backdoor flush since he's getting a good price. Not thinking he'd fold or raise when he spikes a set on the turn. Board might look too scary for him to raise with a hand.
    But QJ is the nuts on the turn and vulnerable to any diamond or card that pairs the board so I believe even though you bet big here, QJ would get active.
    It's probably much harder to bluff villain off a set than off TP and we still have SDV in case he just continued with draws against your big turn bet.
    So unless I know I have the FE I'd be checking back here.
  • magicpigmagicpig Red Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    AlvinLau wrote: »


    You should only unload the clip here with flush draws that unblock villains pair and gutshot combinations on the turn, which should in totality be a very small combination of busted flush draws by the river. (This is generally true of all triple barrels with flush draws that brick.)

    When to triple barrel and not to tripple barrel busted flush draws on the river is important and technical since you are blocking a portion of your opponents folding range.

    I am not understanding what is being said here regarding tripple barreling when villains pair and flush draw combinations on the turn are "unblocked".

    Would someone give an example of "blocked" and "unblocked" pair plus flush draws on the turn with further explanation of this concept?

    Thank you.


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