What range should I assume from villain on the river?

Julio CoelhoJulio Coelho Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
edited October 2018 in Online Poker Hands
Hey there, so here is a hand from PS 6-max Zoom.


BTN: 137 BB
Hero (SB): 126 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP: 100.5 BB
CO: 212 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :QS: :QD:

fold, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, MP calls 5 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) :9D: :5H: :3H:
Hero bets 10 BB, MP calls 10 BB

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) :JS:
Hero bets 19 BB, MP calls 19 BB

River: (77 BB, 2 players) :6C:
Hero checks, MP bets 62.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 62.5 BB

MP shows :KD: :JH: (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 29%, Flop 17%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows :QD: :QS: (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 83%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 195 BB


The question here is: the range that I am assuming from villain on the river is calling to the Turn are all those hands (flush draws, straight draws, top pairs (J), 2nd top pair (9), etc)
33+, AKs, AJs, A3s, AhQh, AhTh-Ah4h, Ah2h, KJs, KhQh, KhTh-Kh9h, QJs, QhTh-Qh9h, J9s+, Js8s-Js7s, Jh6h-Jh2h, Jc8c-Jc7c, Jd8d-Jd7d, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo+, A9o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, T9o
Which account to exactly 20% of the hands. (I'm 73,3% favorite against this range)

1) Is this range assumption right? Should I exclude any hand/combos?

2) After my check on the river... Should I expect a shove from which hands? I want to run my Equity against a range shove on the river... But I'm not sure which range I should assume.

Thanks a lot guys!

Comments

  • A684977A684977 Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Why such a small 3bet preflop?
    Aren’t you putting many hands in his range with which he would not be raising and/or calling your 3bet preflop? I mean J7, J8, A2s, A3s, 32s, Jh2h+
    Check on river is great to induce bluffs. I think MP overplays his KJ. I think the river range is QJ+, Broadway hearts and maybe some Ahxh that missed and 99, 55, 33.
  • Julio CoelhoJulio Coelho Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    @A684977

    Hey there, I used a 2,5X for some reason at the time (3 months ago). I believe it was to get him to call with my premium hand.

    Yes! I totally agree with you!

    At that time I was starting to study with a range x range software, and I was playing with some hands.

    Just fyi I re-run the hand on the software with those adjustments and the equity from my hand rose to 79.08%

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