Am I priced in to call?

Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
We are playing full ring NL 2/5, it folds to the MP who opens to 30 dollars and is called by four people and I have Ac6c from the BB. I call. The pot minus rake is 147 dollars and MP is the effective stack size of 330 dollars.

The flop comes 6h7cQc. The MP bets 100 and the BU calls. MP is a particularly weak player and the BU is the type of player who loves suited Ks Qs and As. I get the impression that both players aren't that strong and I decided to put in a raise to 450. Although not a pot sized raise I felt at the time that 450 in this situation had roughly the same amount of fold equity as a 550 bet. MP snap folds and the BU thinks about it and then puts me all in for 455 more dollars. All though he loves suited hands I would seriously discount the number of draws he would have (other than the fact that I have the A of clubs) for this much money so in almost all cases I'm behind.

At this point am I pot committed to this hand? Can I fold here? Do I have enough equity to call?

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭✭
    Yes, as played, you're getting it all in.

    I'm confused about stack sizes, though. You wrote that the effective stack size was $330. What we really need is the stack size of every player in the hand to give better advice for the earlier steps of the hand.
  • Daniel JDaniel J Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    TBH I don't recall the stack sizes of the other players at the table, the player who put me all in had me covered by no more than 100 dollars. That's about all else I can recall.
  • WannabeFarhaWannabeFarha Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    At that point my by count (if im understanding you right) you'd be calling $455 more for a pot of $1,800 and change. You only need about 20% equity to call and you have minimum 28% (im giving him the benefit of the doubt of having two clubs, really id put him on a set or two pair maybe? He could have 89-910c if hes smart then he has oesd/gutshot and fd), then youd have 36% equity. So on that alone you have the correct draw equity to call plus you have that 3rd pair equity if hes bluffing total air.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 719 ✭✭✭
    Your analysis should center around your reasons for calling preflop setting you up to play a pot with an SPR 3 or under, OOP with a drawing hand

    As played... c'mon... what a flop. I would have open jammed the flop as this is the perfect scenario where better hands will fold and worse will call
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭✭
    @Daniel J: Knowing stack sizes is essential because this --
    Sully wrote: »
    Your analysis should center around your reasons for calling preflop setting you up to play a pot with an SPR 3 or under, OOP with a drawing hand


    The flop raise also makes sense. The awkward part is your sizing. You want to do one of two things:

    1) Ideally, be able to apply multiple streets of pressure with real fold equity; or
    2) Apply one street of pressure with a lot of fold equity.

    Your raising applies one street of pressure only -- there's not enough behind for a second push. Had you raised on the flop to $300 or $350, then you could shove the turn, getting two streets of meaningful fold equity.

    Alternatively, shove, as @Sully also mentioned.

    One final consideration: Does your hand as-is have any showdown value against these two opponents?

    Ultimately, too, is where the stack sizes of all the players is essential in making the better play.



  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,538 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You are misconstructing the pot if you think this is a raise. Examine closely why you are doing this beyond hot and cold equity, and consider what will happen versus rational opponents.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    edited November 5
    Really dislike this raise on the flop. @persuadeo is right on. a flat is way higher EV, IMO, esp. since you close the action.
    But, yeah, you are priced in on the flop 3bet, as played.
  • DeadliftsDeadlifts Red Chipper Posts: 69 ✭✭
    @moishetreats

    Just trying to figure out for my own edification if my thinking is correct. Based on this post and the responses alike, am I correct in the following:

    "Flatting the flop cbet here is a mathematically correct call seeing as we get almost 2.5:1 here. Flatting also gives us enough stack-depth to play the turn & river, as well as realize our equity on future streets."

    First question, is again, if my mindset is correct in that. Second question would be if there's any merit to the point previously made about this being a flop where better hands fold and worse continue. As in, can we push hands like Qx or overpairs off here or on the turn?
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    Deadlifts wrote: »
    @moishetreats

    Just trying to figure out for my own edification if my thinking is correct. Based on this post and the responses alike, am I correct in the following:

    "Flatting the flop cbet here is a mathematically correct call seeing as we get almost 2.5:1 here. Flatting also gives us enough stack-depth to play the turn & river, as well as realize our equity on future streets."

    First question, is again, if my mindset is correct in that. Second question would be if there's any merit to the point previously made about this being a flop where better hands fold and worse continue. As in, can we push hands like Qx or overpairs off here or on the turn?

    It depends on how bad the players are, but a thinking player should be floating overpairs, KQ and AQ to this raise on this semi-wet board.. Maybe even some weaker queens, although I'm not completely sure since it's multiway.

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