QQ hit bottom set after calling 4-Bet

Leath WLeath W Red Chipper Posts: 47 ✭✭
edited November 4 in Online Poker Hands
Hey guys,

UTG seems like a very decent player who I expect to 4bet wider than AA or KK which are almost the only 4bets I've ever seen at these limits (that aren't shoves). I'm assuming a mostly merged range because I've been 3betting aggressively.

Possibly something like this best case:
TT+,55-22,AJs+,A5s-A4s,KQs,QJs,JTs,AQo+
And worst case:
QQ+,AQs+,A5s,AKo

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 114 BB (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 18.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
SB: 115 BB (VPIP: 23.61, PFR: 16.90, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 74)
BB: 40.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 345.5 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.46, Hands: 174)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 45.16, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 31)
Hero (CO): 191 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :QS: :QC:

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG raises to 22 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Flop: (45.5 BB, 2 players) :QH: :AD: :KD:
UTG checks, Hero bets 25 BB, UTG calls 25 BB

Turn: (95.5 BB, 2 players) :9H:
UTG checks, Hero ?
Hero bets 144 BB and is all-in, fold
Hero wins 92 BB

Against a weaker opponent who would only 4bet QQ+ that would be a pretty horrible flop but against the worst case 4bet range I assigned for this villain I have an 18% equity edge. When he checks to me I bet sort of large but even though we're deep I think this is a hand that I want to get the money in with?
I know I don't need to be balanced at these limits but I find it really hard to find any bluffs at all here for the many value combos I can have. I think I would have to call 4bets with hands like T9s to be balanced here, and also size my cbet smaller.

Anyway the turn gets tricky for me as there are now 2 flushdraws and 1 straight draw out there. A very large portion of diamond draws are blocked by the board however. Villain checks to me again and I certainly want to bet again. However I have an SPR of about 1.5 so unless I bet small it makes for an awkward bet size on the river. And I did not want to face a X/R shove by villain vs my small bet with any flushdraw he might have.

Now maybe though that's exactly what I should want? Him to be raising with his 2pair combos and flushdraws? The more I think about it the worse shoving myself seems here because either he does have a range like the one I assigned him and I can get a lot of value from his bluffs and second-best hands, OR I was mistaken and he still mostly has AA and KK in his 4bet range and I'm burning money by shoving. But at least that seems unlikely as he would presumably be betting the turn himself with those hands.

BUT:
He would need roughly 20% equity if I made a 33% pot bet on the turn to just call with draws which means I'd most likely be pricing him in. And then I'd have a tricky decision on the river if another diamond or especially heart rolls off. If he bets, can I call? If he checks, should I reopen the action the betting? Jamming the turn seems like the easiest way to avoid tough spots afterall, which might just make it one of the higher EV lines.

Comments

  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November 4
    I'm either betting around 50BB (leaving a river bet of around 100BB) or simply checking.

    Obviously, if V has AA, KK, AK, or the unexpected JT, then V is calling anything. But, this is just an awkward line throughout if V has one of those hands. And, given how V has played to this point, do you think that V would check-shove the turn with one of those hands? Maybe. But, not often enough that I'd be folding.

    IMO, shoving the turn the worst option. You'll get called from hands that beat you. Realistically, besides AK, are there any highly-likely hands that V has here that would call your turn shove that is behind you? I don't see many. So, shoving axiomatically folds out the parts of V's range that is behind you and keeps in the parts of V's range that is ahead of you.

    Betting 50BB with the presumed river shove has merit. Again, I don't think that you're behind too often given V's line; the 9 doesn't do anything for V's hand (except a semi-random Axh that somehow got here); and you could take this line with a somewhat poled range. The 50BB turn bet might keep in a good enough portion of BB's range that is behind you to make it profitable, and you'd often get called by worse on the river shove, too.

    You could also check, trying to induce a bet from V on the river. That would depend more on player profiles and image, of course.

    Finally, there are really that many scare cards for you. An A or a K isn't great (it gives AK a suck-out), and there just aren't that many diamond or heart draws in V's range at this point. You don't have much of the deck to fade, and even some of those cards that you want to fade aren't incredibly likely to hit V's range.

    So, I'd default to the 50BB bet on the turn with the door open for a deviant turn check, depending on how V would often play the river.

    *One caveat: If YOU are likely to have, say, Axh here a good portion of the time, then a turn shove could be advised to protect your range. As played, though, your hand looks a lot like AA...

    (Admittedly, I am live poker player. If these thoughts need to be re-examined because of the player profiles typically found online, then I'll gladly rescind my comments.)

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