Pocket 9s on Button: 3-bet MW pot.

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 149 ✭✭
Playing $1/$3 at MGM National Harbor on a Sunday afternoon 4 hours into session. Hero is dealt :9c: :9h: on the button and sits with $510.

One player limps in MP, cutoff raises to $12. I elected not to 3-bet this because I actually thought there was a good chance we would go heads up as was in this pot given how tight SB and BB were playing (both OMC types) and MP was limp/folding very often when not in position. Cutoff also has about $1400 in front of him and has 4-bet a few times. Just didn't see this as a good spot.

Interestingly, SB 3-bets but for the min to $24. BB calls, Cutoff calls and I elect to call.

First question: should I consider folding here? The pot is now $87 and I have to put in just $12 more so I figured I should be trying to set mine here, especially in position. But range-wise, I'm probably at a coinflip against his range at best. And this going MW, I don't have much equity if I don't hit a set. Ultimately, I thought I was getting a good price on a call but would appreciate any comments on thought process here.

Going to flop:

SB --> ~200
BB --> 250
Cutoff -->1375
Hero --> 486

Flop comes :9s: :Ah: :Qc:

SB and BB both check. Cutoff bets $35 into the $99 pot.

How should hero proceed? For SB to 3-bet, I think he's holding QQ+, AQ+, so there's a high probability if my range is correct he hit this board.

BB I would say is less likely to have crushed it but may still have caught a piece, realistically he's not holding AA, he got it all in pre a few hours earlier with aces, but to call that bet, I would think he's holding 77 - QQ, AT+, KQ, KJ, QJ.

Cutoff on the other hand can have a much wider range here IMO. He was hyper aggressive post flop and made some pretty liberal calls when 3-bet for much bigger prices when in position. I set it pretty wide (or what I think is wide in a 3-bet pot from a tight player): 22--JJ, A2s+, ATo - AQo,. 78s - KQs +, 9To - KQo.

So cutoff is not the player I am concerned about at the moment. His style of play and how I perceived his range does not support the notion that he flopped a higher set. SB, however, certainly could have and be slow playing it. BB, too, but I think it's less likely. However, both of their ranges will probably continue with hands worse than mine if I just call. SB may continue with a hands worse than mine to a raise, but he's also going to continue with a few combos that crush mine at the moment.

I considered also at the time that if I raised and SB shoved, it may push BB and CO out of the hand, whereas I really want cutoff to stay in because even if SB has me dominated, I think I am way ahead of him at the moment. His aggressive style and willingness to bluff rivers might build enough of a side pot even if SB went all in on turn or river.

So I'm really not sure how to proceed here and any comments are much appreciated.

Comments

  • LoveFishLoveFish Red Chipper Posts: 28 ✭✭
    Pre flop I think calling on the button with 99 is fine. You absolutely never fold to a min raise to 24$ 100% call.
    On the flop Since we are on the button and in position, with the flop being relatively dry, I am probably just going to call. This is a spot where we are going to raise the turn.

    However if for example SB led flop and BB called along with CO I would raise.


    We might also raise here if the SB who 3 bet pre, Cbets. We have identified now that he is strong and that he is able to call a raise.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭
    Flop comes :9s: :Ah: :Qc:

    SB and BB both check. Cutoff bets $35 into the $99 pot.

    How should hero proceed? For SB to 3-bet, I think he's holding QQ+, AQ+, so there's a high probability if my range is correct he hit this board.

    Then why would he not c-bet it ?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 149 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Flop comes :9s: :Ah: :Qc:

    SB and BB both check. Cutoff bets $35 into the $99 pot.

    How should hero proceed? For SB to 3-bet, I think he's holding QQ+, AQ+, so there's a high probability if my range is correct he hit this board.

    Then why would he not c-bet it ?

    I think given COs aggressive style, he could have been slowplaying a set. I think he'd also check KK here. You wouldn't ever consider checking here with 3 players behind you, two of whom are significantly more aggressive than you if you flopped a set here? (Cutoff and myself.) I'd let CO do my betting for me personally, that was my thought as to why he might have not c-bet it.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    I don't think playing post flop perfectly should be your biggest concern here. You are going to make a lot of money in this situation through either a turn raise or a flop raise. You cannot be worried about a higher set or you are going to be playing way too passively.

    IMO, your play and your questions preflop show some significant problems. 99 is a nearly mandatory 3bet vs. a cutoff open, or at least a 3bet 80% of the time. As played, the fact that you are even asking about considering folding to a minraise is not good. You should never, ever, ever be folding this with pot odds of 7:1, even if V tells you he is only doing this with AA and KK.

    Also a side note, if SB is any good at all, he should be squeezing here with a MUCH wider range than you put him on. He is a total nit if his range really is what you say it is.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 149 ✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    I don't think playing post flop perfectly should be your biggest concern here. You are going to make a lot of money in this situation through either a turn raise or a flop raise. You cannot be worried about a higher set or you are going to be playing way too passively.

    IMO, your play and your questions preflop show some significant problems. 99 is a nearly mandatory 3bet vs. a cutoff open, or at least a 3bet 80% of the time. As played, the fact that you are even asking about considering folding to a minraise is not good. You should never, ever, ever be folding this with pot odds of 7:1, even if V tells you he is only doing this with AA and KK.

    Also a side note, if SB is any good at all, he should be squeezing here with a MUCH wider range than you put him on. He is a total nit if his range really is what you say it is.

    Agree with most of what you said. I should have 3-bet it, and I agree I shouldn't even be considering not calling. I only really posed that question because I was sure I shouldn't even consider a fold that I wanted to make sure I wasn't off in that judgement. I knew I had the odds to call, but I'd rather open myself up to looking like a dolt than to rely on what I think is a 100% the right play miss an opportunity to get some feedback, but I 100% get your comment.

    SB was a total nit but my range could certainly be off. People in these games just rarely are squeezing to begin with and this V did not fit the profile of someone who is going to apply pressure with a non-narrow range. He seemed to me like a fit or folder.

    Regarding not being worried about a higher set: I wouldn't characterize my comment as worrying. I'm more concerned about losing CO and BB. I'd like to keep them in the hand another street given that CO was firing second barrels pretty consistently. If he fires again, I can raise and SB is effectively priced into a call. I was more thinking of building a largest pot possible here to try to get stacks in.

    Is this thought process logical at the very least? I'm trying to do better at thinking downstream.
  • jfarrow13jfarrow13 Red Chipper Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭
    "Also a side note, if SB is any good at all, he should be squeezing here with a MUCH wider range than you put him on. He is a total nit if his range really is what you say it is." the ole min-raise squeeze. Hella FE.
  • Phil EbbsPhil Ebbs Red Chipper Posts: 46 ✭✭
    edited November 8
    Is this thought process logical at the very least? I'm trying to do better at thinking downstream.

    Having a solid preflop game and knowing what your range is on the flop is the most important fundamental to NLHE. Thinking about how to get tricky downstream is not where you should be spending your time, imo.

  • LeChiffreLeChiffre NetherlandsRed Chipper Posts: 228 ✭✭
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    99 is a nearly mandatory 3bet vs. a cutoff open, or at least a 3bet 80% of the time.

    Why? I see myself always flatting here so would love to know why that's so bad.

  • Mr. DontMr. Dont Red Chipper Posts: 364 ✭✭✭
    To me the most interesting part is pre flop.min raise, which I dont.k ow what EP was trying to accomplish other than everyone play correctly, call with wide range to see flop.

    I would raise after min raise was called, its just showing no one has nothing strong.

    In general, I think pre flop min raise in multi way, OOP is 100% mistake.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,752 ✭✭✭✭
    Mr. Dont wrote: »
    To me the most interesting part is pre flop.min raise, which I dont.k ow what EP was trying to accomplish other than everyone play correctly, call with wide range to see flop.

    I would raise after min raise was called, its just showing no one has nothing strong.

    In general, I think pre flop min raise in multi way, OOP is 100% mistake.

    I don't typically advocate for a min-raise here. Note, though, that you are confused by it. Others might be, too. As a result, you and others might make mistakes in the hand -- calling too loosely, not ranging V, etc. So, it's hard to argue that it's a "100% mistake" when, indeed, it's more likely that players are playing incorrectly against it.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    LeChiffre wrote: »
    Phil Ebbs wrote: »
    99 is a nearly mandatory 3bet vs. a cutoff open, or at least a 3bet 80% of the time.

    Why? I see myself always flatting here so would love to know why that's so bad.

    totally agree...
    any time someone tells you that something is "mandatory", you can discard their advice as rote and sub optimal.
    maybe HU online... but in a live full-ring game, NOTHING is ever mandatory.
    live cash games are all about adjustments and deviations.
    If Hero thought that the CO raise would fold everyone out and they would go heads up... and CO was overly aggro... a flat with a large part of his range is fine.

    that said - @Jordan Power you need to have some sort of guiding principals that help you with your decision-making.
    when you're set-mining, statistics tell us that you'll hit a set 1 out of 7.5 times.
    (they don't tell you how often you'll have set over set... but we'll talk about that later)
    so a lot of players have "rules" for calling to set-mine.
    some players calculate that the stack from the last raiser should be at least 10X of the last bet. So when CO raises to 12 and he's got 1375 behind, you've got way more than 10X so you're good. (Other players want more of a cushion an seek out 15X... you can decide which multiplier you prefer... I'll use 10X for now)
    So you call and SB makes it 24.
    Two things are in play here:
    1.) your 12 is not yours anymore - it's part of the pot. So for you to call, you only need to call 12 more. When it gets to you, the pot 84-ish... that means there's already 6X the bet size in the pot... so for you to make a "correct" call - you need to be able to earn $48 more by the river to make your call here a good call. Since every player left has over $48 in their stack - calling here is +EV.
    2.) when you hit your set, you want to build the pot.
    While A Q 9 rb may look innocuous, it is NOT! A lot of turn cards can help someone make the nuts that can decimate your stack. On such a wimpy open and 3-bet, we can expect KJ, JT and T8 to be in our opponent's hands.
    Don't "worry" about losing anyone in any pot... anytime you can get someone to fold their equity post, you're printing money. Even if SB has KK (2 outs) - he's still got equity. Or if CO has AJ... If you raise and SB shoves - that's fine.
    don't try to control how other players will play... you cant.
    don't play a game of milking players - ESP in a multiway pot.
    that's a good way to expose your stack and lose all of it.
    Play your range strong - and force them to put more money in bad/ drawing.

    vs a $35 bet - I'd raise it to around 115 (depending on your image and how you've sized your bets in the past)
    [something to consider here is your bet size.... if SB has 200, you want to bet enough that it makes it tough on CO to call - but also not too big so that if SB shoves, it reopens the betting. and you can then re-shove.)
    if everyone folds - so what? what's wrong with winning a $130 pot? (we've already made 10X our $12 call... so we're playing winning poker.)

    what about the check from the SB?
    if he's got a set - we're gifting him an early X-mas present!
    Sets are some of the strongest hands we will have on the flop. If we're set over setted, so be it. We cannot play weak or act scared.
    They happen so infrequently... I think Google says it happens 1 out of 97 times.
    So, if SB has AA or QQ.... merry christmas.

    besides, SB has more combos of AK and KK in his range than AA or QQ - so we should damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead.

    back to the original comment about why flat pre?
    in most ⅓ games, you don't need to be deceptive, tricky or balanced to make money.
    99 is obviously NOT a very strong hand pre.
    say you did 3-bet.... say, you made it 40.
    now SB makes it 100.... now what?
    exactly.
    if table was all super deep - then by all means, 3-bet like a spewy monkey.
    but with a hand that benefits more from seeing a flop - calling is always more +EV than trying to play a preflop game of chicken like you see tournament players do.

    we're here to make money.
    and we'll make more money by playing post in low SPR pots than bloating it pre.
    besides, we have position.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 149 ✭✭
    Hey @kagey thanks for the great response.That was really helpful, especially the part about playing the range strong and if they happen to have flopped a better set, so be it. I'm slowly coming out of my shell regarding running into a monster but I know this is something I just have to work on and rely on the fact that I am well bankrolled to play $1/$3 and let that handle the variance.

    I did in fact raise to $115 and everyone folded, so a nice pot was collected. There was another comment made above about not worrying about playing perfect poker. I think that's good advice as well.

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