QQ Spot against BB defend

Adam B

10K Guaranteed on ACR
Blinds 5k-10k
Ante 700
(In The Money)
225k Chips (the effective Stack)

Hero is UTG with
Raise to 27.75K

Fold around to BB who defends
Recently moved to this table
No real stats on villain

Pot: ~63k

Flop:

BB check
Hero bets 38k

BB calls fairly quickly

Turn is ( making the flush possible)

Villian checks

I check behind
Mistake?
I let any straight draws peel off another card, Any pairs get to realize their equity and could hit two pair/straight. Any pair + heart gets to see a free river.
Pot: 139k

River:

Villian leads out 100k

What’s the play here?

Results to follow.

persuadeo

What is the purpose of your large flop bet? Who hits this board more? What happens when he jams flop?

CaptainFalcon

I think checking back the turn was a mistake for the reasons you listed, given how wide the big blind's call preflop, check-call flop range can be. The only advantage to it I can see is that it protects you against a check-raise.

On the river, I see villain's value range as mainly consisting of flushes and 6x straights. When considering hands that might have trapped, I heavily discount the likelihood of overpairs and flopped sets. Both types of hands are unlikely to make villain comfortable betting 70% pot on the river against a straighty, flushy board. Additionally, a lot of overpairs would 3bet preflop (though somewhat less against a UTG open) and a set would probably have raised your flop bet on a wet board. I am assuming speculatively that two pair is not in villain's river betting range and would go for a check-call line on the river instead.

I am assuming villain would check 87 on the river for showdown value, rather than bluff. Premier bluff candidates seem to be busted heart draws and 2x or Ax busted straight draws. However, it is also possible that villain knows he has a massive range advantage on that river and is bluffing wider (e.g. pairs 5 or lowers, overcards that called on the flop but didn't improve). My tentative conclusion is that we should fold if villain is not concerned with range advantage and call if he is. Since this player is unknown, I would not assume he is capable of having these extra bluff combos based on range advantage and fold.

suited4ever

Many times I personally choose to check behind in this flop, depends on the player against me.

When I choose to bet this flop, I'd bet about 1/3 of the pot and not high as you.
Check back on the turn is completely ok, because you'll be in a very tough spot against a check raise.

I tend do fold in the river, but if you have some history with the player then a call can also be good a lot of the times

NJgrinder_1

Fold. If he bluffed you he bluffed.

KingKKunta

On the river I think you should fold, even if he were to value bet a J there he does not have any in his calling range on the flop (maybe J6s but that turns into a straight). You only beat bluffs and there are not many -> 22, A3, A4, A5(some of these he might check-raise on the flop with the A of hearts). On the other hand he can value bet straights and flushes - sets I think check-raise the flop (but he can still have 77) and 2 pairs the same (maybe he has some 75s).

The tough spot is the turn. I would check back with a heart in hand but in this spot I would bet-fold or bet and check behind the river if he calls. If he raises turn he almost always has straights and flushes. Maybe he check-raises some Ah and you get bluffed off the better hand but he will probably bluff river with those and put you in a tough spot anyway.

So, what was the result?

pocket22dueces

suited4ever wrote: »

Many times I personally choose to check behind in this flop, depends on the player against me.

When I choose to bet this flop, I'd bet about 1/3 of the pot and not high as you.
Check back on the turn is completely ok, because you'll be in a very tough spot against a check raise.

I tend do fold in the river, but if you have some history with the player then a call can also be good a lot of the times

I completely agree with you :)