QQ Spot against BB defend

10K Guaranteed on ACR
Blinds 5k-10k
Ante 700
(In The Money)
225k Chips (the effective Stack)
Hero is UTG with

Raise to 27.75K
Fold around to BB who defends
Recently moved to this table
No real stats on villain
Pot: ~63k
Flop:


BB check
Hero bets 38k
BB calls fairly quickly
Turn is
( making the flush possible)
Villian checks
I check behind
Mistake?
I let any straight draws peel off another card, Any pairs get to realize their equity and could hit two pair/straight. Any pair + heart gets to see a free river.
Pot: 139k
River:
Villian leads out 100k
What’s the play here?
Results to follow.
Blinds 5k-10k
Ante 700
(In The Money)
225k Chips (the effective Stack)
Hero is UTG with


Raise to 27.75K
Fold around to BB who defends
Recently moved to this table
No real stats on villain
Pot: ~63k
Flop:



BB check
Hero bets 38k
BB calls fairly quickly
Turn is

Villian checks
I check behind
Mistake?
I let any straight draws peel off another card, Any pairs get to realize their equity and could hit two pair/straight. Any pair + heart gets to see a free river.
Pot: 139k
River:

Villian leads out 100k
What’s the play here?
Results to follow.
Leave a Comment

Comments
On the river, I see villain's value range as mainly consisting of flushes and 6x straights. When considering hands that might have trapped, I heavily discount the likelihood of overpairs and flopped sets. Both types of hands are unlikely to make villain comfortable betting 70% pot on the river against a straighty, flushy board. Additionally, a lot of overpairs would 3bet preflop (though somewhat less against a UTG open) and a set would probably have raised your flop bet on a wet board. I am assuming speculatively that two pair is not in villain's river betting range and would go for a check-call line on the river instead.
I am assuming villain would check 87 on the river for showdown value, rather than bluff. Premier bluff candidates seem to be busted heart draws and 2x or Ax busted straight draws. However, it is also possible that villain knows he has a massive range advantage on that river and is bluffing wider (e.g. pairs 5 or lowers, overcards that called on the flop but didn't improve). My tentative conclusion is that we should fold if villain is not concerned with range advantage and call if he is. Since this player is unknown, I would not assume he is capable of having these extra bluff combos based on range advantage and fold.
When I choose to bet this flop, I'd bet about 1/3 of the pot and not high as you.
Check back on the turn is completely ok, because you'll be in a very tough spot against a check raise.
I tend do fold in the river, but if you have some history with the player then a call can also be good a lot of the times
The tough spot is the turn. I would check back with a heart in hand but in this spot I would bet-fold or bet and check behind the river if he calls. If he raises turn he almost always has straights and flushes. Maybe he check-raises some Ah and you get bluffed off the better hand but he will probably bluff river with those and put you in a tough spot anyway.
So, what was the result?
I completely agree with you :)