Fold on the river?

AlmostNolanAlmostNolan Red Chipper Posts: 14
edited June 2015 in Online Poker Hands
My thought process in this hand:

His preflop raising range is fairly wide given his stats (with admittedly limited history). Thought about 3betting but decided to just call OOP.

On flop it seemed likely he had a draw and that I was ahead and that some weaker hands would still call so I check raised. When he called he could call with strong draws but could still call with some weaker made hands (eg A7, 88), or made hands with a draw (87, Ad6d) and of course stronger made hands. He could also call with two overs like AK or AQ.

When the Kd hits the flush draws get there and AK gets there (which I could have as well), but other overpairs might get more worried (TT-QQ). I could get some of those hands to fold (although my bet sizing was probably too small for that) and some of the weaker hands or draws might call one more time.

7 on the river hits some of his weaker hands that might have been hanging around so I checked. When he bet I was sure I was beat but he could be betting his missed draws there -- seems like straights and trips might check back, and certainly pocket pairs that did not improve to trips would check back. So now I am not sure my river fold was smart.

Merge - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $33.26 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.09, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 88)
Hero (SB): $10.45
BB: $4.91 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: $1.12 (VPIP: 41.51, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
UTG+1: $18.40 (VPIP: 13.12, PFR: 12.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 1,034)
MP: $9.15 (VPIP: 16.30, PFR: 1.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 188)
CO: $13.83 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) 7:diamond: 5:diamond: 6:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.55, Hero raises to $2.00, BTN calls $1.45

Turn: ($4.80, 2 players) K:diamond:
Hero bets $2.80, BTN calls $2.80

River: ($10.40, 2 players) 7:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.50, fold

BTN wins $9.83

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,034 -
    seems like straights and trips might check back, and certainly pocket pairs that did not improve to trips would check back.

    Why are you making that assumption?

    On the river, what kind of 7x hands could he have?
    Would he just call flop + turn with a 'FD turned flush'?
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Here is my 5 cents..

    First of all, if he is calling your raise here with overcards, then its still likely he is calling the turn a bit wider which might put you in a awkward situation by the river for your stacks where you are completely marginal. I still like the raise though. I think you should think about how are you planning in these situations.

    The more i think about this hand the more i hate how you put yourself in a situation where you have a decent hand OOP to a fishy player who you assume is calling pretty wide and he have the lead in the pot. Kinda sucks, because he controls the pot, he has the betting lead and the board is really dynamic. What i would of love to see is you 3betting this hand to about $1.25 or so, have a pot about $2.60, flop this board where we know he is calling wide here so we can just bomb the flop for value and set up for a turn shove regardless of what comes and hope we show the best hand knowing he is going to be calling wide.

    As played, i don't hate the fold, i like how you played it, but it goes back to what i was saying, if he is the calling station he is, then raise those hands and just go postflop with a favorable hand and a decent size pot. If you flop some overcards on the flop, then you can plan how much bets and what size you want to be calling and of course how much streets are you calling based on your assumption of how villian may play his entire range.

    Now let me just re-state that what i said is if the villain is really calling wide. You may want to make sure that villain is actually doing this and base on the sample size im not sure if you would normally have enough info but fishy players show more frequently for more info so just be sure that is the scenario. If not, then i am agreeing with SplitSuit here, what 7x hands does he have on the river here? If he had a draw on the flop after you raise him and he call and made his flush on the turn, what is his purpose of just calling that turn? Tbh, its hard to say if villain has a value hand, while i won't be quick to count out flushes, thats probably the only thing i could give a small percentage of credit for that beats my hand, probably some K9 or K8 that was trying to hit maybe.. However i must admit its hard for him to show up with that much bluffs if he has any and while i don't hate the fold, i think revising some of your assumptions & gameplan may help keep you out of situations like these.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    I liked your check raise on flop. the flat call by button on the check raise seems pretty fishy.

    I agree with rello's line, 3 bet preflop, and either bomb flop or check shove flop.
  • Renato_LRenato_L Red Chipper Posts: 190
    Renato_L wrote:
    I liked your check raise on flop. the flat call by button on the check raise seems pretty fishy.

    I agree with rello's line, 3 bet preflop, and either bomb flop or check shove flop.

    To clarify, the flat call by button on check raise on such a dynamic board where you have a blocker to the nuts seems fishy.
  • AlmostNolanAlmostNolan Red Chipper Posts: 14
    SplitSuit wrote:
    seems like straights and trips might check back, and certainly pocket pairs that did not improve to trips would check back.

    Why are you making that assumption?

    On the river, what kind of 7x hands could he have?
    Would he just call flop + turn with a 'FD turned flush'?

    Well, I am making that assumption without a lot of data / research, but it seems like the players in the games I play in (microstakes) are usually more likely to take the passive line. When there is an obvious flush out there and they don't have the flush, they are likely to proceed cautiously. This might be partly because of the tendency for players in these games to overuse the slowplay line. It is not unusual to see a check raise on the river with a monster. It is also not unusual for it to go check check on the river when someone has a medium to strong (non nutted) hand. And I see a fair amount of calls on the river with medium to weak hands.

    I agree it seems like he would be unlikely to just call the turn with a turned flush unless it was the nut flush. And it does seem unlikely that he would call the turn with a 7 unless he also had an open ended straight draw like 87, and possibly an A7 could call flop and turn. It seems unlikely he would raise these hands preflop unless they were suited, so that reduces the combos of these.
  • AlmostNolanAlmostNolan Red Chipper Posts: 14
    Rello242 wrote:

    The more i think about this hand the more i hate how you put yourself in a situation where you have a decent hand OOP to a fishy player who you assume is calling pretty wide and he have the lead in the pot. Kinda sucks, because he controls the pot, he has the betting lead and the board is really dynamic. What i would of love to see is you 3betting this hand to about $1.25 or so, have a pot about $2.60, flop this board where we know he is calling wide here so we can just bomb the flop for value and set up for a turn shove regardless of what comes and hope we show the best hand knowing he is going to be calling wide.

    . . . while i don't hate the fold, i think revising some of your assumptions & gameplan may help keep you out of situations like these.

    Thanks -- great analysis! I have been pulling back on my 3 betting because so many of the players in the games I play in have stats with VPIP in the 20-30 range and PFR at 10 or less that they are screaming at you that they have a strong hand when they actually do raise preflop. I have been trying to watch for those few that are raising more widely to 3 bet lighter but I must admit it happens infrequently enough that I sometimes forget to watch for it and adjust.

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