Difficult hand Monotone Flop turned Trips

Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
2 open limpers from mp1 and mp2 I raise to 16 with :8s :9s in the cutoff sb calls(covers) bb folds and the limpers call. Pot=66. The flop is :5h :6h :8h . Sb checks,mp1 checks and mp2 donks for 40(Mp1 donks with a normal donk range) I call,Sb calls and mp1 folds. Pot=186. Turn is the :8d and villain bets 150 in game(with 80 behind) now that I called the flop is call the only option for the turn? Our image is nitty and we have only shown down pocket jacks. Villain is predictable and the call on the flop is +ev. Also, if sb raises we are getting over 6:1 on a call and our call will be +ev.

Comments

  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
    If you called the flop thinking you are good. How are ever folding the turn when you hit the best card possible?

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭✭
    and mp2 donks for 40(Mp1 donks with a normal donk range)
    What is a "normal donk range" ? ?
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Responding to Red, a normal donk range from beginner type players include pair+straight combos, ahx combos,straight +flush combos, while removing the strongest part of his range which includes flopped king high+ flushes, straights and sets. According to Flopzilla, I have 39%equity vs this range. All 3 opponents have a VPIP>50% and a CPFR>40%.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Here is where I get confused:
    Villain is predictable ...
    Turn is the :8d and villain bets 150 in game(with 80 behind) now that I called the flop is call the only option for the turn?

    If "Villain is predictable", then you are calling the flop anticipating what V would do on the turn and already having your plan in mind given different turn cards. Since that does not seem to be the case here on the turn, I think that the biggest issue in this hand is either you simply labeling V as predictable but not yet having found the exploit or you falling into the trap of playing each street independently without having a plan for the rest of the hand. Could be both.

    Bottom line: the key decision here is the flop, not the turn. Go back and assess the flop choice -- and, more importantly, your reasoning for it -- and the turn play becomes much more self-evident.
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Responding to Persuadeo, I decided to call the flop as I have seen villain donk with marginal holdings on several occasions. I think raising is a mistake and with position I can bet turns and take down the pot if villain checks. The remaining players in the hand are passive and thus checkraises from the sb or mp1 will only be indicative of nuts-type-hands in which I can easily fold. Against higher skilled opponents, I would fold on flop, however these villains were below 2nl in skill level.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 963 ✭✭✭✭
    keep in mind that he limped called for 14 more preflop. So you have 4 pieces of info to start your analysis.

    1) he limped, not raised (remove the big suited bdway, big aces, big pairs, maybe medium pairs

    2) He called your 16 raise (well 14 more) not re-raised (not a lot of Ax type hands but probably a lot of SC, suited 1 gappers, suited Kings, low suited broadways.)

    3) He donked the flop into a multi way pot where the other 3 opponents could have shit this flop (all will often check to the raiser)

    4)he donked 2/3ish so it has some size (probably not a fealer bet or a blocker type bet.

    5)getting two callers into a monotone board he still managed to bet 150 even after the top card on the board paired (can't put you on it but can put the other caller on it). (not likely to do this with say 67...possably trappy with monster hand.

    6) he does not go all in but leaves behind an amount he will have to call off. Player dependent but probably not bluffy with say AhJc or 76


  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,053 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Responding to Persuadeo, I decided to call the flop as I have seen villain donk with marginal holdings on several occasions. I think raising is a mistake and with position I can bet turns and take down the pot if villain checks. The remaining players in the hand are passive and thus checkraises from the sb or mp1 will only be indicative of nuts-type-hands in which I can easily fold. Against higher skilled opponents, I would fold on flop, however these villains were below 2nl in skill level.

    What I would say to you is that you are relying on player pool tendencies for your analysis, which is ok until you forget you are doing it or want to play more precisely.

    You lose sight of technicals when you play like this and disregard fundamentals. This is not a good board for facing a 60% bet with a great deal of your range, never mind this hand, with no visibility and the possibility of drawing dead or RIO. When you call, your flat will need to fold too much on the turn or to a check raise, which means it is an inefficent wager.

    It's great that you know your opponents, which is a real skill, nevertheless.
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    Thanks Persuadeo. I need to factor in likely runouts and realize that small mathematical edges in certain situations are nullified as I am not seeing a turn as both sb and mp1 are uncapped on the flop. In the hand I called turn, and villain flipped over his cards and then went all in on the river. He had k8 and the river was a king. Had I thought correctly I would have saved 190 bucks.

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