AKs Facing 5 Bet Deep Stack

Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
The main villain in this hand is an Asain male early 20's playing around 25-30% of hands preflop and always goes in for a raise. He has a low cbet%, he plays like a lag preflop, however is passive postflop. During the three hours of play I have not seen him 3 bet once. Villain UTG opens for 12 I reraise to 45 with :Ah :Kh I get flatted by a MAWG(300 stack) MP2 whos only played a few hands and a loose idiot goes all in for 71. The original raiser raises to 145(5 bet) and has me covered with a 600 dollar stack. What is the optimal line? If I flat I have 329 remaining(474 starting stack) which would leave an SPR slightly above 1. If I go all in am I getting enough fold equity to make the play profitable? Also villain makes obvious postflop calling mistakes so I thought my fold equity for 6 betting was very low.

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,153 ✭✭✭✭
    The original raiser raises to 145(5 bet) and has me covered with a 600 dollar stack
    No, this is a 4bet.
    "1st-bet" is BB
    "2-bet" is Villain open-bet
    3-bet is Hero raising
    4-bet is V raising to 145.
    The main villain in this hand is an Asain male early 20's playing around 25-30% of hands preflop and always goes in for a raise. He has a low cbet%, he plays like a lag preflop, however is passive postflop. During the three hours of play I have not seen him 3 bet once.
    There is some contradictions in this description. A "LAG preflop" will have a 3bet range, esp. when sitting IP (CO, BU). I'd expect at least one 3bet / orbit if LAG
    A "LAG preflop" will play more than 25% hand.
    A LAG do not tighten up postflop. I'd even expect the contrary pushing postflop to win on scary boards and/or against unsure opponents.

    So to me, your Villain is just a meh player, active preflop in 2bet pot, playing fit-or-fold postflop. A dream to make money from.

    But if a Villain didn't 3bet in 3 hours, then his 4-bet range is super strong. AKs against QQ+ is 34% equity; against KK+ it's 23% equity. Do you have the right pot odds to call preflop ? What about postflop ? What about shoving (even if surely a bad idea, always good to dig into alternatives) ?
    (If you're unsure about pot odds, see this video)
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    @Bernard Silva: During the three hours of play, how often have you 3bet this V (you're sitting to his immediate left, correct?)? And how did V usually respond to that 3bet?
  • Bernard SilvaBernard Silva Red Chipper Posts: 23 ✭✭
    I did not 3 bet this villain at all. I had 3 bet three times in 3 hours other villains.
    Responding to Red, it was a 5 bet the loose idiot raised to 71 which is a 4 bet.
    25% full ring is definetly LAG. A Tag would have 13-17% VPIP. Ideal TAG stats according to Blackrain are 15/12 full ring and 20/17 6 max. I said his PREFLOP stats are similar to a LAG whereas his postflop stats are indicative of a weak tight player. His weakness is playing to many hands preflop as he does not have the skill postflop to make it +ev.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,161 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2018
    (Not to distract from your discussion, but to clarify - it is not a 4 bet/5bet situation technically because the all-in from the "loose idiot" was not a complete raise. This is interpreted as a "call plus extra" in big bet games, where the next raise must meet the minimum of the last raise. So there is a three bet, an incomplete shove, and now a four bet.)
  • RomuffelRomuffel Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    @Bernard Silva: During the three hours of play, how often have you 3bet this V (you're sitting to his immediate left, correct?)? And how did V usually respond to that 3bet?

    Right? I feel this would help gauge an appropriate response
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 78 ✭✭
    edited November 2018
    When players 3 bet loose and wide other players are highly incentivized to respond by 4 betting loose and wide.

    When stacks are deep enough, and given the above scenario, 4 bets can and should get called by top end hands, especially when a light 4 bettor likes to continue with an aggressive line - he bets the flop,

    The scenario posted should not have happened because the all-in to $71 should have capped the betting, most likely leading to a MW flop.

    Anyway, this does not sound like a formation in which one can expect light 3 bets followed by light 4 bets so the OP is stuck with a purty hand, lots of money in the pot, and scared money behind.

    F
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Fernando O wrote: »
    The scenario posted should not have happened because the all-in to $71 should have capped the betting, most likely leading to a MW flop.
    F

    Not true. UTG opened to $12 and OP raised to $45. MP2 shoving for $71 (but not technically re-raising) does NOT re-open betting for OP, but OP's raise does re-open betting for UTG. Even though MP2 did not complete a full 4bet, UTG still has action re-opened because of UTG's 3bet.

    I did not 3 bet this villain at all. I had 3 bet three times in 3 hours other villains.

    Still wondering how those hands played out. Did you show down with aces or kings? Never show? Have to show light? etc.


    All that being said, it seems like there is around $300ish in the pot when the action gets back to you pre-flop with about $100 to call. You wrote that V plays poorly post-flop, but you can't factor that in here with him showing pre-flop aggression and with an SPR that would be under 1. There's little room for error: He'll be shoving most of the time regardless of the flop.

    The other factor to consider is MAWG: what is he most likely to do if you flat-call or if you shove? Ultimately, though, I think that's a lesser situation.

    Shoving pre-flop does retain some fold equity. Maybe not an extraordinary amount, but enough. No hand has had this much action pre-flop, so past play doesn't have tremendous influence.

    The only driving question is if there is any realistic chance that V makes this play with anything besides aces or kings. If yes, then I'd be shoving. Borrowing from @Red's math, against QQ+, you have 34% equity-when-called, about exactly the shove. As long as you have any fold equity or any chance of V calling wider, then it's a profitable shove. Even against KK+, again, borrowing from @Red, you have 23% equity. Not ideal, but enough given that KK and AA is a very narrow range (and potentially off-set by a call behind).

    If you're a little nervous about variance and potentially tilting if you lose, then you could flat. This isn't a "must-shove" place, and you could simply hope that you get a favorable flop and/or that V plays scared post-flop and you could have some fold equity there.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,153 ✭✭✭✭
    If you're a little nervous about variance and potentially tilting if you lose, then you could flat. This isn't a "must-shove" place, and you could simply hope that you get a favorable flop and/or that V plays scared post-flop and you could have some fold equity there.
    Hi @moishetreats . As much as I agree with all your post above, I disagree with your final statement.
    AKs hits and wins 17% of the time by flopping TP (AXX), straight, flush, trips (even less often / fewer hits against AA since only trips, flush and straight flop better).
    You still flop equity with FD (10.9% of the time) and gutter (11.2%) - plus 3 A outs against KK - but still it's only some equity.

    You're IMHO right saying "There's little room for error: He'll be shoving most of the time regardless of the flop". To me it's either fold or shove.
    You need to be way deeper to justify a call and play postflop profitably with AKs here. (You could justify a call pre / call postflop if V is a maniac, but that's not our V here)
  • Fernando OFernando O Red Chipper Posts: 78 ✭✭
    When stacks are deep enough, and given the above scenario, 4 bets can and should get called by top end hands, especially when a light 4 bettor likes to continue with an aggressive line - he bets the flop,

    That was poorly written. The lack of stack depth in OP's scenario doesn't merit a flat of the 4 bet.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    If you're a little nervous about variance and potentially tilting if you lose, then you could flat. This isn't a "must-shove" place, and you could simply hope that you get a favorable flop and/or that V plays scared post-flop and you could have some fold equity there.
    Hi @moishetreats . As much as I agree with all your post above, I disagree with your final statement.
    AKs hits and wins 17% of the time by flopping TP (AXX), straight, flush, trips (even less often / fewer hits against AA since only trips, flush and straight flop better).
    You still flop equity with FD (10.9% of the time) and gutter (11.2%) - plus 3 A outs against KK - but still it's only some equity.

    You're IMHO right saying "There's little room for error: He'll be shoving most of the time regardless of the flop". To me it's either fold or shove.
    You need to be way deeper to justify a call and play postflop profitably with AKs here. (You could justify a call pre / call postflop if V is a maniac, but that's not our V here)

    Agreed. I was just about to come back and write a postscript, saying that my final paragraph was unwise. Thanks for doing it for me, @Red!

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