Flopped Top Two Facing Aggression

Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
Happy Monday, Red Chippers.

Playing $1/$3 mid afternoon on Sunday at the MGM National Harbor.

Hero ($1371) dealt :Ah: :JC: in the cutoff and raises to $20 over two limpers. The button ($200) flats. SB ($950) calls as well.

Button is a weak player who plays about 75% of hands whereas SB is clearly a thinking player although I have no experience with him other than the 4 hours we have been playing.

SBs range to call in the SB I took to be 22 - TT, AJ, AQ, AT, 9Ts - KQs, JTo - KQo, KJs, KTs, QTs, J9s. He had 3 bet Jacks in SB and gotten to showdown a few orbits prior so I feel it reasonable to take JJ+ out of his range here.

Flop ($69): :AD: :JD: :TC:

SB checks. I c-bet $35. I think I can target a ton of worse holdings here in SBs range and also allow button to come along with a gut shot or pocket pair. He's playing extremely wide and is a station so I don't want to give him any excuse to fold here if he caught a piece of this board.

Button calls. SB raises to $75. This set off a bit of an alarm bell for me. The sizing here is much smaller a x/r than SB had employed. He had not done a ton of check raising, but when it was done, it was minimum of 3x. V had gotten to showdown quite a few times and I had yet to see a bluff or a showdown without a ton of value so I'm fairly confident he's hit this board in some meaningful manner.

I think SBs x/r range here is limited to combos of 2 pair, a set of tens, KQ (straight), and nut flush draws. I don't see him x/r AQ here, personally.

So V I only thing is check raising:

JT, AT, AJ, TT, KdJd, KQ. Plugging this in to Equilab, I've got 39% equity against this range so based on the small raise, I can more than profitably continue. So I call. I never considered re-raising here because the only worse hands I see even possibly continuing is JT and AT.

Buttons folds.

Turn ($254): :9C:

SB bets $150.

Hero? I think I can lay this down here. I don't think V would barrel the one combo of a nut flush draw (Kd Qd being a made hand already) that I have in his range after I called the check raise. I think it's much more likely he's at the top of his range which has me beat, but want to see whatever everyone thinks of this spot. Thinking ahead, I don't think I can call a large river bet without improving to the boat and thus I think a fold here is probably the best decision.

Thoughts?

Comments

  • Michael WMichael W Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    (ignore me, cause im online ms player)

    if i were in the sb, i dont have a c/r range here. everything that hits this board hard is a 3bet pre and therefore everything else (if i have a calling range pre) is a clear c/c.

    is it standard live to call 22-55 here in the sb? not squeeze TT, AQ, KQ....to iso the fish?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    I would have 3 bet in the SB too but 3 betting is very rare in my games as it is and while SB would 3 bet, nothing about his play suggested to me he was going to be 3 betting more than JJ+, AK. He had not 3 bet AQ in the BB earlier in session. So I don't think he would 3 bet KQ, either.

    But yes, what I am describing is fairly standard in my games. He may have folded 22-55, but I had no data surrounding lower pocket pairs so kept it in the pre flop range.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    Do you realize turn 9c doesn't change anything (equity-like) based on your hand and the range you assign to V?
    Considering you've to call 150 to win 554 (or 27% pot odds), you still are +EV by calling if he continue betting with the same range than on flop... !
    (Now the big question is: does he really c-r AT or JT ? And what means the bet sizing ?)

    Also, why wouldn't he have or continue with more combos draws, like QdTd ? KdJd (continuing) ? KdTd ? Td9d ? 9d8d ? Others
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    Yeah I did realize the 9 was effectively a brick based upon the range I was assigning.

    I didn't put 89 in his range pre so I can't add it later (although I'm fairly certain my range is not perfect haha) There was a typo above, I wrote KJd as a draw he would raise; I meant KT; the Jd was on the flop. But QTd seems like a bad x/r to me. He's not raising to the nut and based on his sizing, he's giving me the odds to continue even w/o two pair, so it doesn't seem like this sizing supports a flush draw at all now that I think about it. Wouldn't you want to size up to add in some fold equity to a semi-bluff not drawing to the nut flush? Thoughts there?

    I realize I'm still getting the odds to call, but it just seemed like I was behind here. The sizing on the x/r made it seem like he had a non-vulnerable made hand that wants to build a big pot. But then I think well if that's the case, why raise there when I'm probably going to fire again? I was firing a second barrel fairly often so I don't think he's going to view me as someone who cbets and gives up. And plus he would want to keep button in who would call down to showdown with a ton of marginal at best hands.

    What are your thoughts on that bet sizing, @Red?

    The only fairly non-vulnerable made hand there is KdQd and thinking about how I would play that, I don't think his play supports him having that. If I were SB, I would check, let me cbet, and if button called, just flat. No reason to raise because unless the board pairs, you have the nuts. So his x/r to me doesn't support that. Maybe KQo or TT? Wants to build a pot and doesn't want a draw seeing the turn for just $35? I think that sizing is bad though.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭✭
    This play really does feel like it's going to be KQ more often than not, due to the tiny checkraise of multiple players on the flop. I would still call the turn bet though, as you are getting an okay price and are drawing to the (effective) nuts, with position and stacks behind. Then plan to fold the river to any further action if you miss or get it in if you hit.
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    This play really does feel like it's going to be KQ more often than not, due to the tiny checkraise of multiple players on the flop. I would still call the turn bet though, as you are getting an okay price and are drawing to the (effective) nuts, with position and stacks behind. Then plan to fold the river to any further action if you miss or get it in if you hit.

    You mean based on his range I have the odds, right? Or do you mean even if we make his range KQo, KQs, I'm drawing with 4 outs to my boat, so even though I only have 9% equity in the hand, BUT that fact that I'm going to win his entire (and still deep!) stack when I hit makes my implieds good enough to call? I struggle with this.

    Are you saying:

    a) if we hit, we win the rest of V stack a huge portion of the time
    b) if we do not hit, V could still check and give us the option for showdown and we may win the hand because we have SDV
    c) if we do not hit and V bets, we can press the fold button on the river

    There's enough value in A and B to justify making the call even without the direct odds if we assume V has the straight?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    What are your thoughts on that bet sizing, @Red?
    You said "The sizing here is much smaller a x/r than SB had employed."
    So this is an important information: SB c-r with a much smaller bet sizing that expected. Why? What does that mean ?
    Bad Villains leak a ton of information through their bet sizing. (Good/studied Villain will but be more balance and have a strategic aim when choosing a sizing)

    Out of the blue, only based on my observation of 1/2$ population tendencies, usually bad Villains bet/raise big to find a fold (scared of being outdrawn) or when overplaying an overpair-like hand; they will bet/raise much smaller when they have a monster hand / top of their range and try to scratch value (betting small to not scared others away).
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    What are your thoughts on that bet sizing, @Red?
    You said "The sizing here is much smaller a x/r than SB had employed."
    So this is an important information: SB c-r with a much smaller bet sizing that expected. Why? What does that mean ?
    Bad Villains leak a ton of information through their bet sizing. (Good/studied Villain will but be more balance and have a strategic aim when choosing a sizing)

    Out of the blue, only based on my observation of 1/2$ population tendencies, usually bad Villains bet/raise big to find a fold (scared of being outdrawn) or when overplaying an overpair-like hand; they will bet/raise much smaller when they have a monster hand / top of their range and try to scratch value (betting small to not scared others away).

    I 100% agree, I just didn't want to lead the witness by stating my thoughts. The smaller check raise screamed "monster" to me.

    Do you think it unreasonable to call turn with the intention of folding the river if I do not improve given that if I hit my A or J, I'm probably taking his entire stack (which is fairly deep still)?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    But will he pay if A or J paires the board?
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    But will he pay if A or J paires the board?

    If he does have KQ, yeah I think he's gonna pay me. Neither A or J could fill a potential diamond flush so he would have to put me on two pair that made the boat. I think he'd pay me there.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    This play really does feel like it's going to be KQ more often than not, due to the tiny checkraise of multiple players on the flop. I would still call the turn bet though, as you are getting an okay price and are drawing to the (effective) nuts, with position and stacks behind. Then plan to fold the river to any further action if you miss or get it in if you hit.

    You mean based on his range I have the odds, right? Or do you mean even if we make his range KQo, KQs, I'm drawing with 4 outs to my boat, so even though I only have 9% equity in the hand, BUT that fact that I'm going to win his entire (and still deep!) stack when I hit makes my implieds good enough to call? I struggle with this.

    Are you saying:

    a) if we hit, we win the rest of V stack a huge portion of the time
    b) if we do not hit, V could still check and give us the option for showdown and we may win the hand because we have SDV
    c) if we do not hit and V bets, we can press the fold button on the river

    There's enough value in A and B to justify making the call even without the direct odds if we assume V has the straight?

    I'm saying I believe your hand is strong enough to call versus his entire range, though it's close. IF we range him at ONLY KQ, this is absolutely a fold, because even if he pays off 100% of the time on an A or J river we're still losing money.

    So yes, you need the combination of A and B, and really you need a villain that will walk down path B often enough without the nuts to make it a call.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭✭
    The more I think about this hand, the more it feels like a fold.

    I'm having a hard time coming up with much that V raises the flop to such a small amount with, with Mr. ShortStackCallingStation in between you, besides KQ and TT. Plus you block a bunch of Two pair/pair plus draw combos. Also, you still have all sets, KQ, and some flush draws in your range, so it's not like this is a necessary defend spot for MDF reasons. Still think you can justify a call on the flop to try to spike and charge his monster, but probably a fold on the turn.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    Roblivion wrote: »
    so it's not like this is a necessary defend spot for MDF reasons.
    To use MDF, you also have to put bluff in Villain's range, where we could call with a bluff catcher.
    - Except with info, most bad 1/2 Villain don't bluff - or way not enough compare to their bet size. MDF isn't a relevent tool against such guy
    - this situation is / looks way more merged ranges than "pure" bluff.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Roblivion wrote: »
    so it's not like this is a necessary defend spot for MDF reasons.
    To use MDF, you also have to put bluff in Villain's range, where we could call with a bluff catcher.
    - Except with info, most bad 1/2 Villain don't bluff - or way not enough compare to their bet size. MDF isn't a relevent tool against such guy
    - this situation is / looks way more merged ranges than "pure" bluff.

    This is true, but there is nothing describing this particular villain as a "bad" 1/2 villain, but rather a "thinking" player. Either way, I think there will be almost zero bluffs in his range and it's just one more reason this hand does not need to defend.
  • Michael WMichael W Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    edited December 4
    Roblivion wrote: »
    but there is nothing describing this particular villain as a "bad" 1/2 villain,
    cept everything he does in this hand

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 4
    Roblivion wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    Roblivion wrote: »
    so it's not like this is a necessary defend spot for MDF reasons.
    To use MDF, you also have to put bluff in Villain's range, where we could call with a bluff catcher.
    - Except with info, most bad 1/2 Villain don't bluff - or way not enough compare to their bet size. MDF isn't a relevent tool against such guy
    - this situation is / looks way more merged ranges than "pure" bluff.

    This is true, but there is nothing describing this particular villain as a "bad" 1/2 villain, but rather a "thinking" player. Either way, I think there will be almost zero bluffs in his range and it's just one more reason this hand does not need to defend.

    First of all, note that I was talking generally about bad low stakes Villain and the uselessness of MDF against them, not this one in particular.

    But then: "Everyone is terrible at poker" (dixit Ed Miller) Even the pro low-to-mid stakes (1/3-2/5) players can be not that great (and living of it thanks to terrible but wealthy tourists by playing ok-ish and tight straightforwardly).
  • Jordan PowerJordan Power Red Chipper Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
    I didn't mean thinking player to imply he was good, for the record =) I'm a thinking player and I'm far from being good lol.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 229 ✭✭✭
    I guess when I made the comment about MDF (which we agree is not a factor in this spot) I was more referring to using it as a guidepost for range construction in general, not necessarily in terms of "this player bet x, now I must defend y percent."

    Because we want to build a street over street range progression that can shed hands to bets on each street, it is important to make sure we don't end up in a spot where we have to fold the top of our range on later streets. Even if we're playing against "bad players" that are not actively exploiting us, if our range construction sucks we end up exploiting ourselves.

    What I was really pointing out (or trying to) is that there is no construction-based impetus to defend this hand since it is not as near the top of hero's range as top two pair tends to be a lot of the time. I happened to use the term MDF as a shorthand for some deeper thoughts I had in my head when I should have just gone into further detail about what I meant.

    Bottom line: Whatever reasoning you want to use, there is nothing that makes this particular hand a "must defend."

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